No Hat, No Cattle

July 01, 2005

More Fenway

The view of Boston over the right field wall...

...and of Fenway from the same spot.

Pesky Pole among threatening clouds. There is actually a guy stationed next to the pole after games specifically to stop people from approaching the Pole with markers to sign their names.

Posted by stan at 03:53 PM

June 30, 2005

502 Feet?

Posted by stan at 06:57 PM

My Four Days of Unemployment - Day Three

Day three of my unemployment was spent at Fenway, watching the Sox drop the Indians 5-2, courtesy of back-to-back 8th inning home runs from Doug Miribelli and Mark Bellhorn. The tickets were out in the bleachers, which are really pretty decent seats. Unless you are willing to plop down some serious cash for Field Box or Loge seats, the bleachers are really the place to go at Fenway. Grandstand & LF Box seats (Boxes 86-88 excepted) generally aren't worth the price since you never know which way the seats will be facing (some face center field, believe it or not) or what might be in your way.

Jason Varitek warms up Mike Timlin above.

And the most important picture.

Posted by stan at 06:39 PM

June 22, 2005

Throwback Night

Sara and I are listening to the radio broadcast of the Sox v. Indians game right now, kind of a taste of the 50's. Except that we're picking it up online courtesy of mlb.com (for a modest fee), they didn't do that in their poodle skirts.

Update: And the Sox tie the game in the 8th, to the chagrin of the Indian's broadcast team!

Posted by stan at 09:53 PM

June 10, 2005

Live Blogging The Red Sox-Cubs Game

3:45 - It's 14-3 and this little live blogging idea is officially over...the only good thing about this game was the piece of cherry pie I had in the first inning...

3:44 - Embree promptly throws one to the backstop, another run scores...

3:44 - Ron Santos scores it as 3 unassisted....

3:42 - Don't see this everyday, Corey Patterson just lined a ball of Neifti Perez, the base runner at 1st. That's a single I think, Perez is out and baserunners don't advance...

3:38 - Michael Barrett doubles into the ivy, its 13-3, this was a bad idea, Embree's ERA is approaching 7, remember when he was untouchable a few years back?

3:36 - Alan Embree - 19ER/17K

3:35 - Great, Alan Embree comes in to relieve Halama, the only other pitcher on the roster to allow more earned runs than Ks...two quick hits and the Sox are down 12-3...

3:31 - And Edgar flies out to right to end the threat...

3:28 - Yep, Mike Wuertz is coming in to face Renteria, the line for Maddux: 6.2IP, 7H, 3ER, 1BB, 3K...Wuertz is having himself a nice year, mid-3's ERA with more a K an inning...15 walks in 30 innings though...

3:27 - Damon singles to center, driving in Mueller...that might be it for Maddux, he's thrown 87 pitches and it is pretty warm in Chicago today...

3:27 - The sox have strung together a couple hits here in the top of the seventh, they've got men at 1st and 3rd with one out and Kelly Shoppach as come in to PH....and strike out, he'll tell his grandkids about that K to Maddux though....

3:24 - Lots of guys that played for the other team in this one, huh? Walker, Mueller, Bellhorn, Nomar...

3:22 - Jeremi Gonzalez and Lenny DiNardo are pitching OK in Pawtucket, couldn't one of them fill the long man role at least as good as Halama?

3:20 - Manny throws out Artimis trying to stretch a single into a double...every once in a while Manny shows a flash of something in the field, doesn't he?

3:18 - John Halama - 20 Ks, 23 ERs, 6.09 ERA...he gets released this road trip, no?

3:16 - Jeremy Burnitz hits his second HR of the game, 11-2 Cubs...I am seriously considering cutting this blogging business short now, I don't want them to lose by 20...

3:14 - Chris Chelios & Jack O'Callahan have joined the Cubs radio broadcasters to talk baseball now, apparently Chelios was playing in some semi-pro league in Detroit during the strike...

3:14 - Until Derrek Lee doubles to right, scoring Perez from first and pushing the margin back up to 7...

3:12 - Wait, Big Papi hit one last inning, I missed that one, the Sox have cut the lead to 6...

3:09 - Wow, Neifi Perez has his OBA up to .336 this year, I hadn't noticed. I guess it can't last though, it hasn't be above .300 since he was playing in Colorado...

3:08 - What? Greg Maddux takes John Halama deep? I think that's the final nail in the coffin for this one...Halama's K/ER ratio as down to 20/20 now...

2:55 - And with that endorsement, Halama easily retires Artimis, Walker and Hollandsworth...

2:53 - John Halama relieves Arroyo, here's all you need to know, 20 Ks, 19 ERs this season...

2:51 - And it takes only the amount of time for me to send one email for Maddux to take care of the Sox in the top of the 5th...

2:48 - Mark Bellhorn goes down swinging for the 67th time this season...it's only June 10th...

2:45 - This just in from the little too late department, Arroyo Ks Lee and gets Burnitz to ground out to Big Papi, his line so far: 4IP, 97 pitches, 7ER, 10H...at least he hasn't issued any walks...

2:43 - Bottom of the 4th adn Bronson is in trouble again, a one out Corey Patterson double and stolen base gives the Cubs a man on third with NL MVP frontrunner Derrek Lee (though Bobby Abreu is having a better year)...

2:36 - Nope, he lines out to right to end the inning...

2:35 - Manny and Trot go down quick, but Varitek drives one into the gap for a two-out double...lets see if Billy Mueller can bring him home...

2:31 - Maddux grounds out to Big Papi and the inning mercifully comes to an end with the Sox in a 7-1 hole...

2:31 - Sara, if you're reading this, you need to move Wally to a new spot in the appartment, where he is right now isn't helping...

2:29 - Michael Barrett doubles in some runs...Cubs are up 7-1 now as apparently Johnny Damon misplayed that ball...getting ugly, this might be the first and last live-blogging of a Sox game for me...

2:28 - Michael Barrett is going to double in some runs in about 15 seconds...

2:28 - The radio broadcast is 3 full pitches behind the action...

2:27 - How annoying, MLB has all of these radio broadcasts on a 15 second delay or something, I'm getting updates on the game via cbs.sportsline.com well ahead of the gameplay...

2:26 - Hollandsworth is now smashing a series of line drives foul right now...meanwhile, Arroyo has thrown 75 pitches through 2.1 IP...

2:24 - Walker singles sharply to center field for the fourth consecutive hit and Arroyo is officially on the ropes with activity stirring in the Sox bullpen...the ignoble John Halama is warming...

2:21 - I've joined Ron Santos and someone else on the radio broadcast via mlb.com by the way, they've been discussing a particular contest winners long polish name for two minutes now, lets keep our eye on the ball fellas...

2:20 - Hmmm...three singles from Lee, Burnitz & Ramirez and a Jason Varitek throwing error were the culprit...

2:20 - Ugh...back to my desk and the Cubs have pushed 2 more runs across the plate...

2:03 - Big Papi flys out to end the threat, 3-1 Cubs after 2 innings...now I dash to the office...

2:03 - Its up to Edgar and the entire New England region knows whats coming....except Perez boots the grounder up the middle and Edgar beats it out! Run scores and apparently Nefti's uncle in the scoring booth rules it a base hit...

2:03 - Brenly notes with disgust that the Red Sox don't run much as Damon makes it to first, again, was good enough to win the World Series though...

2:02 - ...takes ball 4...

2:01 - Its up to Damon, he works the count full and then...

2:01 - Three pitches, three strikes and Bronson is gone

2:01 - If I ever got an at bat in the majors I suspect I'd look as bad as Arroyo does right now...

2:00 - Bellhorn moves Mueller along to third, giving poor Bronson or Damon a chance to cash him in...

1:59 - Brenly notes with apparent disgust that the Sox had only 12 sacrafice bunts all year in 2004, though that was good enough to when the World Series I guess...

1:58 - Bill Mueller quickly doubles into the left field gap and now I face my delimma, I need to run across the street back to my desk and start to follow the game online now, maybe at the end of the inning...

1:55 - Arroyo makes Perez look bad as he strikes out to end the inning...two left-handed bats, two home runs for the Cubs, that's been the story for Bronson over the last two years, lefties are hitting over .100 higher than righties against him...

1:54 - Bob Brenley compares major league baseball players to whittlers sitting on porches, glad to see I'm not drinking alone today...

1:52 - Maddux moves him over, putting the rest of the inning in the hands of Nefti Perez...

1:52 - And now Barrett gets on with a dribbler through the hole...this isn't looking good...

1:50 - Christ, Todd Hollinsworth just hit one out of the stadium...395 feet according to WGN, Sox down 3-0 pretty quickly here...

1:48 - Here's old friend Todd Walker...and Arroyo quickly blows him away with 4 pitches...

1:47 - Aramis singles to left on a ball Manny maybe should have gotten too, he hit a good pitch though...

1:47 - Here's Aramis, lets see how Bronson reacts...

1:46 - Uh oh, Jeremy Burnitz just took Arroyo deep to RF for his 9th HR of the year...

1:43 - And down goes Tek, Maddux has retired the first 6 in order...

1:41 - Maddux looks like he is hitting his spots today, as ususal, I don't think I've seen the catcher have to move his glove more than once or twice for him...

1:40 - Nixon grounds out bring up Tek, who I guess is the best catcher in baseball now, hands down?

1:38 - Here's Manny, we need him to snap out of his funk and ignite the team....not much igniting with that weak tapper to 3rd though...

1:37 - Hmmmm...maybe the next time I'll live-blog Sara's complaints about her job, though that could be a length post...

1:33 - Patterson goes down swinging...Bronson looks sharp so far...and he gets Lee to fly out with one pitch...end of 1, 0-0...

1:32 - Patterson is having a pretty good at bat here...and Brenly is talking about hairstyles...

1:29 - Looks like Arroyo mercifully did away with the cornrows...and he retires Perez easily and goes to a full count with Patterson...

1:25 - Boy, they're still running these same commercials for "The Claw" gardening tool that they were 20 years ago...

1;23 - Big Papi chases ball three up and flys out meekly to center, three up, three down....

1:21 - Johnny is scorching the ball this year, but Maddux just got him on a called third strike...you've got to figure he deserves that after that embarrassment on Queer Eye earlier this week...

1:20 - OK Johnny, let's get this started right...

1:18 - Apparently there's a guy that dresses up as an "Ivy Monster" at Wrigley? Is this new? The Cubs are taking the field...

1:16 - Wondering if I'm the first person in history to live blog a baseball game while drinking Mexican beer and eating cherry pie...my 15 minutes is here, I think...

1:15 - Whoa, almost had a small live-blogging disaster there, inadvertently deleted most of the post, this live-blogging isn't for the faint of heart

1:11 - Speaking of jewelry, Kasper's cute little blue bracelet doesn't
stand up very well against colorman Bob Brenly's GIANT world series
ring...

1:08 - Maddux is 4-0 in 6 starts lifetime vs. the Sox with a 3.32 ERA

1:05 - Nomar & Todd Walker interview on now, apparently Nomar doesn't
yet have his ring and is still uncomfortable in front of the media...

1:03 - OK, Announcer Steve Kasper just made the first Boston accent
joke...didn't see that coming...

1:01 - Oh, good teaser for the commercial break, Where's Nomar's Ring?
I wonder if we might have a sentimental presentation before the game?

12:58 - Showing an interview with Matt Clement now, he's doing a
pretty good job playing down his distain for the Cubs organization,
too bad he's not pitching this series.

12:56 - WGN is dubbing this "The Return of the Red Sox." Not the most
imaginative bunch I guess...

12:50 - Today's matchup features Bronson Arroyo against future
Hall-of-Famer Greg Maddux, should be a good one. Of all the Sox
pitchers, I've got to say I'm most comfortable when Bronson is out on
the hill, the kid is really turning into something good. Meanwhile,
I've heard Maddux is still pitching effectively even though he isn't
getting over 87 mph any more.

12:48 - According to WGN, last time the Sox were in Wrigley Woodrow
Wilson was POTUS and there were only 48 states...

12:46 - Things are looking good, I've got a nice slice of cherry pie
next to me and a cold Tecate right next to the pie, the way things
should be.

12:45 - Here we are, in sunny Houston, where it is about 184 degrees.
We've got the TV tuned to WGN and are preparing the first Red Sox-Cubs
game since 1918. This is going to be a little
difficult since I'm just on my lunch break and have to go back to the
office in an hour and a half or so, so we'll see how it works out.

Posted by stan at 01:45 PM | Comments (2)

May 20, 2005

Enron nee Minute Maid Field II - Return of the Traitor

Well, the first trip to Minute Maid Field was so much fun that Sara and I decided to go back last night to see Benedict Clemens pitch one last time. The $12 tickets were a major draw too, I spent more money on beer than the get into the park, which requires some determination in Fenway but didn't even make it unsafe to drive last night.

I probably saw Benedict pitch in person 7 or 8 times now and for some reason I can vividly remember the first time I saw him pitch, a complete game blowout in Yankee Stadium in 1986 that featured, among other things, a Billy Buckner stolen base. I found the boxscore for that game at the excellent Retrosheet, the date was 6/16/86, so I imagine that trip was a present for my 11th birthday believe it or not.

Most of those 7 or 8 games came before Benedict offered West Point to the British, as it were, so it was a nice opportunity to unleash some pent up bad vibes. And the air was thick with karma as two first inning errors lead to three runs for the Diamondbacks and what amounted to a insurmountable deficit for the hapless Astros. Benedict took the loss, which served him right.

A less famous Citgo sign. The real deal can be seen here and here.

The final verdict.

On the way out, we checked out the view from the left field standing room area underneath the train tracks. Not bad at all if you don't mind standing and walking a bit for your beers.

And finally, I discovered possibly the only benefit of the giant sunglasses being popular with the ladies these days, which would be that they allow you to take much better reflection pictures with all that extra surface area.

I wouldn't quite call that a silver lining, maybe bronze or tin though.

Posted by stan at 09:28 AM

May 16, 2005

Minute Maid nee Enron Field

Sara and I finally made it to the Field formerly known as Enron last Friday. Nice place, I liked the open concourse where you can still see the field even when you're up getting a beer, reminded me a lot of Dodger Stadium in that regard. As Sara mentioned as soon as we walked in the place, it's much nicer than the narrow, dark, tomb-like experience that is the concourse at Fenway (I believe the direct quote was, "Wait, why am I not surrounded by cement right now?").

Other highlights:

-That extra 6 inches of knee room - at no point did my knees come in contact with my chin, what a luxury.
-Not everything was different, the $7.75 beers were strangely reminesent of Fenway.
-We parked on the street three blocks from the field for free and didn't get stuck in any traffic whatsoever, coming or going.
-Plenty of TVs that actually show replays of the game. In Fenway, they won't replay anything that could even remotely be considered controversial for fear of inciting riot. It was a nice touch.

The matchup left something to be desired, with the pitcher of last resort Ezequiel Astacio vs. the K-less wonder, Kurt Rueter. They, however, were outdone by two anemic offenses which featured, among other things, Morgan Ensberg batting cleanup, Jose Vizcaino & Ray Durham batting 5th and both Pedro Feliz and Lance Berkman sitting soundly on the bench with a day off. By the 4th inning, we had realized that there was only 1 of the 16 position players that night that would crack the Sox starting lineup.

In between innings, Sara and I concocted a plan to get a picture of the delightful Astros Family that was sitting behind us, with Dad Astro, Mom Astro and Baby Astro all wearing matching shirts. So, we faked like I was taking a picture of Sara and the Astro Family was none the wiser. The kid sitting next to us looks as if he sniffed out our plan though.

If at any time during the game you forgot what state you were in, well, there were plenty of reminders.

My one complaint about the night would have to be the urgency the Astros organization seems to feel pack some sort of activity into every single second of when the game isn't going on. I can't even remember them all, there were a bunch of people in the stands walking around with some catapult contraption at one point, the horrible kiss-cam, the "Deep in the Heart of Texas" sing along (in place of God Bless America, of course), and most obsurdly, at one point there was a contest to pick the worst dressed man out of a group and then they made that guy put on a tuxedo, I'm still scratching my head on that one.

They even felt it necessary to inform the fans when music was and wasn't playing, which I tried blurrily to capture above. It was just too much, that stuff never would fly at Fenway.

And the strangest part of the night goes to this guy, who apparently took his sneakers off at the game and watched in his socks.

You see something new every time you go to the ballpark.

Update: Here's another stadium review via Baseball Musings...

Posted by stan at 10:15 AM | Comments (1)

May 06, 2005

Chicken Soup For The Baseball Soul

From today's NY Times:

The Yankees are a collection of faded stars who have crash-landed in the basement of the American League East.

You can read the whole article here if you need a pick me up.

Posted by stan at 10:28 AM | Comments (1)

May 05, 2005

Good Times

-Stolen from the archives of saralovering.com

Posted by stan at 01:24 PM | Comments (1)

April 05, 2005

Oswalt

Since I'm reduced to watching Astros baseball (there's a long story as to why I am entering the first season in recent memory without the trusty MLB Extra Innings package that lets you watch all the out of market games every night), I'm wondering why Roy Oswalt insists on throwing strikes to home run hitters with bases open and the likes of Yadier Molina on deck?

As with everything else wrong in Houston, I suspect it is because of either the heat or the humidity.

Posted by stan at 08:52 PM

Bad Start

All I can say is that, the last time the Sox lost a couple of games in a row to the Yankees, they recovered enough to win the remainder of games they played in the season. So I'm thinking 160-2 will get them into the playoffs pretty easily. No need to worry.

Posted by stan at 08:47 PM

March 21, 2005

Colorado Rockies

Colorado Rockies

Last Year: 4th Place (68-94)

New to the Altitude: Dustin Mohr, Desi Relaford, Darren Oliver
Back at Sea Level: Jeremy Burnitz, Vinny Castilla, Royce Clayton, Shawn Estes, Denny Neagle

Infield

Poor Todd Helton. One of the premier players in baseball, the best player in the history of the franchise, he is really the only thing worth seeing in Colorado (beside the mountains and buffalo). His numbers, of course altitude-aided, are spectacular. .345/31/107 averages over the last three seasons, to go with a .452 OBP and a 1.061 OPS over that same period. But even away from Coors field his OPS was .969 over the last two years, nothing to sniff at. Defensively, he won his third Gold Glove in 2004, displaying the type of athleticism you’d expect from Peyton Manning’s backup quarterback at Tennessee. He’ll represent Colorado in the All-Star game again this year, he’ll be in the running for the batting title again, he’ll be one of the top run producers in the game again, but he may prove to be the only bright light in what could be a brutal year in the mountains.

Youngster Aaron Miles is expected to start a 2B for the Rockies in 2004. A bit old to be considered a prospect anymore, the 28 year old finally made it to the show last season. Miles has little power, he is more of a slashing singles type hitter. Even so, he has shown little prowess for getting on base in his long minor league career and as a result he really has very little business hitting towards the top of any major league lineup. But he’ll most likely leadoff for the Rockies.

SS Clint Barmes is pretty similar to Miles, though he has displayed a bit more power in the minors, including 16 HR in the PCL last season. He projects to around a .300 hitter with 12-15 HR, with the help of Coors Field, and does have a little bit of speed that could be helpful when balls find there way into the gap or corner. Defensively, Barmes is average at best.

Garrett Atkins will start at 3B for the Rockies after years of being the next big hitting prospect in the system. Atkins has consistently put up impressive numbers as AAA Colorado Springs, only to fall flat during irregular duty with the big club. But he is still only 25, so chances are that, given regular at bats with the major league club, he can produce. 25/85/.310 is not at all far fetched for Atkins.

JD Closser looks to be the starter behind the plate this year for the Rockies. The 25 year old prospect has displayed power from both sides of the plate as well as the ability to hit for average, making him one of the top catching prospects in all of baseball. The inverse of so many other catchers, the knock on Closser is his defense and pitch calling. Veteran Todd Greene will back him up to provide just those commodities as well as to serve as a tutor to the young catcher. Closser should continue his progression this season and, should the defense come along under the tutelage or Greene, could become one of the top catchers in the league over the next 10 years.

Outfield

Preston Wilson hopes to return to CF this season, but given the injuries that slowed him down last year and have plagued his career, it seems more than optimistic to expect the spectacular numbers he put up in 2003. In addition to that, the knee injuries look to have sapped Wilson’s base stealing ability and there is a very real concern as to whether he will be able to patrol Coors Fields immense center field effectively. The Rocks will most likely treat Wilson with kid gloves this season, resting him regularly and pulling him from the lineup on the first hint of trouble with his knees. In those cases, look for the speedy though little else prospect Choo Freeman to fill in as center fielder.

Dustin Mohr should finally see consistent playing time in RF. Mohr began to put it together in the second half for San Francisco in 2004, hitting for average and getting on base at a consistent clip. The one thing he didn’t show much of, however, was power, with only 7 HR in all of 2004. That number should improve as he moves to Coors, but Mohr isn’t anything better than an average 4th outfielder; it is not a good sign that he is expected to get 140 starts this year. Rookie Brad Hawpe, built in the all or nothing Big Russ Branyan mode, will spell Mohr from time to time.

In left, Matt Holliday and Jorge Piedra are expected to platoon. Holliday was one of the more dramatic cases of Jekyll and Hyde at and away from Coors field last season, as evidenced by his 1.009/.654 home/away OPS splits of 2004. Piedra is one of the Rockies top prospects that has made very quick work of every minor league assignment he’s been given so far. The smart thing here would be to either let Piedra play everyday for the big club of ship him off to Colorado Springs where he can play everyday, but the Rockies outfield looks to be just plain too thin to do even that. I’d expect Piedra to be playing everyday by the second half, if not sooner.

The Rotation

Why bother?

The Bullpen

See Rotation.

The Skinny

This looks to be a painful campaign coming up for the Rockies, as they hit bottom while trying to figure out just how a team can compete when playing there home games in such a dramatically different environment than every other team. That they have gotten to the point of discussing the idea of installing hyperbaric chambers at Coors Field to simulate sea level conditions tells you just how closer Colorado’s management is to solving this conundrum. I’m not sure if any team can ever seriously compete under those conditions save spending all your money on big bats and bringing in marginal at best pitchers that can at best give you 200 IP a season, regardless of the other stats. That, obviously, flies in the face of normal baseball thinking. In any event, Rockies fans will get to see some more offense this year. I’ve got them down for 60 wins this year and I’m trying to be optimistic.

Next up: Baseball in Tampa Bay, it’s wheel chair accessible!

Posted by stan at 06:24 PM

Minute Maid Park

We also poked around the Stadium Formerly Known as Enron this weekend.

Posted by stan at 04:31 PM

March 20, 2005

Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays

Last Year: 5th Place (67-94)

New Chicks: Corey Koskie, Shea Hillenbrand, Scot Schoeneweis
Flown From the Coop: Carlos Delgado, Kevin Cash

Infield

This will be the first time in the last 10 years that the Jays didn’t enter spring training with the great Carlos Delgado firmly entrenched at first base and batting smack in the middle of the lineup. 9 full seasons, 330-odd HRs, a 1,000 or so runs batted in; that is a lot of offense to replace. But with his team finishing behind Tampa Bay for the first time ever, GM JP Riccardi was probably right to save the money they would have needed to spend to keep Delgado for other purposes somewhere down the road. Nonetheless, it is certainly a shame for any team to see someone of Delgado’s talent replaced by the converted 3B Eric Hinske and Shea Hillenbrand. After strong rookie years (Hinske won ROY in 2002), the bloom has long been off the roses that were Hinske and Hillenbrand. Hillenbrand looks to be the better offensive player these days, he has not experienced the across the board drop off statistically that Hinske has seen. Hillenbrand, long criticized as a free swinger, even say some improvement to his OBP in 2004. But then you have to wonder about a guy that has been moved around so much, he is going on his 3rd team in 4 years and has earned himself a reputation as a bit of a jerk everywhere that he has landed (Carl Everett famously took him under his wing as a rookie in Boston). Hinske is much better defensively and deserves some real credit for improving from the iffy at best defender he was during his rookie campaign. Either way, neither of them is Carlos.

I’m fascinated by 2B Orlando Hudson. He is tremendous defensively, but the fact that he has been known to announce “web gem” to his teammates while the ball is actually still in play, well, that takes it to another level. How good do you have to be to do that? He is a gold glove waiting to happen. Anyway, he has also shown modest improvement with the bat over the last few years, power numbers improving slightly, using the whole field more consistently as well as showing an improved ability to get on base. There is still room for improvement though, lefties still give him fits and that great speed of his has never translated to as many SBs as it perhaps should. If he can continue his improvement in these areas he should be able to cement himself in a role at the top of the Jays order for years to come and could develop into one of the better all around options at 2B in the league. Fun, fun player to watch.

Russ Adams will get the nod at SS to start the season. Adams impressed the Jays in his late season call up, winning the job in September and putting up decent numbers in his limited opportunity (22 games). It will probably be too much to expect Adams to produce the power and on base numbers from the end of last season over the course of a full year, that production was a bit more than he has given his teams over full seasons in the minors. He also has major issues against left-handed pitching, meaning he probably won’t be much use to the Jays in the late innings. To me, he projects into a lower level platoon type middle infielder at best. John MacDonald will back up at SS, most likely contributing only as a late inning defensive replacement.

Toronto’s one major addition this off season, and it is kind of a stretch to call it that, was to bring in free agent 3B Corey Koskie. Koskie has provided decent production over the last few years, but he has also been slowed down by a cacophony of nagging injuries in that time. I guess you can look at his 25 HRs in 118 games last season and think that he could be a 35 HR type guy if he can just stay healthy. I don’t think that is terribly realistic though, if he repeats his 2004 numbers over a full season this year I think the Jays should be happy. Plus he’s Canadian, so there’s that at least.

The Jays quickly abandoned young Kevin Cash behind the plate in favor of veteran catchers Greg Zaun and Greg Myers. Zaun is the better defensive option, but doesn’t offer much at the plate. Myers, who is 38 and returning from a severely sprained ankle that forced him to miss all of 2004, offers more pop but not as much mobility behind the plate. If you could combine these two Gregs into one catcher I think you might have something, but since you can’t I’d say the Jays have to average options behind the plate. Either way, both are just place holders for young Guillermo Quiroz, designated catcher of the future that will most definitely be with the club come September and should be starting in 2006.

Outfield

Vernon Wells will come back from a disappointing 2004 season and find himself being unquestionable the best player in the field for the Jays. Last season can be dismissed partly because he battled a calf injury all season that had a pretty dramatic effect on his play. Back to full speed, I’m expecting a lot more from Wells in 2005, perhaps returning to his 30/100/.320 form of 2003. One problem Wells will have though is a distinct lack of protection in the lineup; a lot of that 2003 performance was aided by a fearsome Carlos Delgado batting behind him. This year it will be Corey Koskie batting behind him when healthy and there is a distinct possibility for Wells to get the same treatment that Brian Giles got all those years in Pittsburgh, being singled out as the guy opposing pitchers will not allow to beat them. If that happens, it could be a frustrating year for Wells and his patience at the plate will be hugely important.

Uber-prospect Alex Rios will start his first full season in RF this year. Rios has tremendous speed and is a very real threat to steal 30 bases this season. In addition, he is a excellent defender with a very strong arm that can be expected to pile up quite a few outfield assists this season. In his time with the Jays in 2004, Rios also displayed the ability to hit the ball to all fields, perhaps a benefit that the 24 year-old’s power has yet to develop. Offensively, he really reminds me of a young Nomar, same body type and same ability to cover the entire strikes zone. He probably won’t have a 2005 quite as good as Nomar’s rookie campaign (i.e. 30 HRs), but there is the very real possibility that he could develop into that type of player with time.

Rounding out the outfield, it looks like the Jays may be platooning the affable yet oft-injured Frank Catalanatto and decidedly average Reed Johnson. Catalanatto is your prototypical #2 hitter with excellent bat control and gap power. Though by no means physically gifted, his compact, line-drive spraying swing is consistent as any in baseball and as a result he is a shoe in to hit .290-.300 each year. In addition, he is one of the smarter, more studious players around, spending hours in the video room trying to perfect his swing and prepare for pitchers. In short, he’s one of those guys that has been able to squeeze every bit of performance out of his overmatched ability, enabling him to compete with guys with which he has no real business competing. That makes him an awful likeable fellow in my book. There have been rumors of Catalanatto batting anywhere from the 2 hole (where he belongs) to leading off to a spot further down in the order where he will be counted on to produce runs.

Johnson will probably spell Catalanatto on a semi-regular basis as well as give Rios the occasional day off. Johnson is probably best suited as a defensive replacement/fourth outfielder that gets maybe 8-10 ABs a week or so. He doesn’t do anything particularly well, but he won’t hurt the club in any areas either.

Prospect Gabe Gross, who has been murdering the ball thus far in spring training, is expected to start the season at AAA. Gross is quite an athlete, he quarterbacked for Auburn in his college days before dedication himself to baseball. Given his history, he is still considered rather raw, though the Jays have been impressed with his baseball instincts in the minors. He needs time to become a more consistent player, which is why the Jays want him playing everyday in AAA until there is a full time spot available in Toronto. If the injury bug hits Toronto’s outfield, he’ll be the first one called up, otherwise he probably will continue to hone his game in Syracuse until September call ups.

The Rotation

The rotation starts and ends with 2003 Cy Young Award winner Roy Halladay, who experienced a frustrating 2004 marred with injury and inconsistency. Still only 27, Halladay missed two months due to a tired shoulder, which most attribute to the fact that he pitched over 500 innings in his previous two dominating campaigns. There was no structural damage though, and while the Jays may not leave Halladay on the mound to finish as many games as they have in the past, there is little to suggest that he cannot return to his dominating form of old. Halladay features a fastball with late movement that hits the upper 90s at times as well a sharp slider and curveball combination, all of which he delivers with pinpoint accuracy when on his game. Rumor has it he is developing a changeup this spring training. He’s a top contender for the Cy Young this year in my book. And worth repeating: still only 27.

Lefty Ted Lilly is the number 2 starter, though he developed shoulder tendonitis at the beginning of spring training and most likely not to be ready for opening day. Regardless, Lilly took a step forward for the Jays last season, standing in admirable as the top pitcher with Halladay out. Lilly works his changeup off a low 90s fastball against right-handed hitters and also features a sharp over the top curve to lefties. Lack of focus has always been the knock on Lilly, another improving year like 2004 and he can put that talk to bed for good. Also, his full name is Theodore Roosevelt Lilly, which is fun, though the whole “Speak softly and carry a big stick,” thing really would work better for a batter.

David Bush has a lock on the #3 spot and hopes to build off of what was really a quite successful debut in 2004. In his 16 starts last season, Bush maintained a 3.69 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP to go with his 5-4 record on a low scoring team. That’s a good start, and while the Jays expect hitters to catch up with Bush a bit in his second campaign, they feel that he is a bright enough pitcher to make adjustments in his own right. Bush features a low 90s fastball which works well with his sharp curve and changeup combination to right-handed hitters. However, Bush never did show much confidence in that changeup against lefties, enabling them to sit on the curveball and do some damage to the 25 year old. With confidence in that changeup will come more effectiveness against lefties and that has been the major focus of his spring training this season. The result will probably determine Bush’s success in 2005, and while he might not make a quantum leap against lefties, it is a safe bet that he will improve at least a little bit and cement himself as a quality #3 pitcher.

Josh Towers and someone named Gustavo Chacin are expected to round out the rotation in 2005. Towers is the epitome of a 5th starter, a control pitcher who needs everything going right to survive 6 innings in the majors, to which his 5+ ERA and 1.50 WHIP attest. Chacin spent 4 years in the minors with little success before putting it all together last year at AA New Hampshire and than again at AAA Syracuse. He replicated that on the big stage in Toronto, albeit he only got two starts there. He’s still just a kid, 24, he’ll be a major league wild card for the Jays.

The Bullpen

Miguel Batista has recently been named the closer for the Jays; that apparently based on the short 5 save tryout he got at the end of last season. Well, he does throw in the 95 MPH range and he has never really had that third consistent pitch to make him effective as a starter, so it seems as good pick as closer than any other of which I can think. He is another wildcard for 2005, but the more you think about it the more it does make sense for the guy. Walks have always been as issue with Batista, but even that could be blamed on his inconsistent/lack of a third pitch. I’m cautiously optimistic.

Batista supplants Justin Speier as closer, though he was perhaps the most consistent arm in the bullpen last season for the Jays. In his career, Speier has been around the block a few times, pitching well some seasons, horribly others, but seemingly always with a new team (Toronto is #6 by my count). Excepting last season, consistency is not Speier’s strong suit historically and as such his role as setup man to Batista does not look to be one in which he can be expected to excel.

Jason Frasor and Kerry Lightenberg can be expected to return to the pen this season. Frasor was lights out in the first half as the Jays closer, saving 17 of 19 and looking dominant at times. But the wheels came off in the second half as he struggled to locate his pitches and as a result struggled to get anyone out at all. Lightenberg fought hip pain all season in 2004 and his numbers showed it (6.36 ERA) even though he still made 57 appearances. A healthy Lightenberg shouldn’t be that bad, I expect him to come back as a serviceable 6th and 7th inning guy this season.

After that it gets really ugly, Scot Schoeneweis is likely to be in the pen by virtue of his lefthandedness, Justin Miller, Vinny Caulk and Ryan Glynn expect to compete for the last few spots in the pen. It could turn out to be one of the worst relief squads in the league.

The Skinny

Things don’t look really good for Toronto just yet, they simply don’t have the firepower required to compete in the AL East. They have some building blocks, the first three starters should hold there own, Wells is a top notch CF, Rios and Hudson are developing nicely. With that, there financial constraint has been admirable; most clubs would have spent the $13M/year to bring Delgado back and put a better product on the field in 2004, but Ricarrdi was wise to pocket that money so he could use it to add smarter pieces to the long term puzzle.

To those building blocks the Jays should be able to add Gross as an everyday LF and Quiroz behind the plate in 2006 as well as top pitching prospects (and Tommy John recoveree) Dustin McGowan and Brandon League (League may find a spot in the bullpen in 2005 and he features a 98 MPH fastball the pen could use). As those players develop, the Jays may find better use of that Delgado money to add some depth to the bullpen or perhaps another starter at the back end of the rotation. It isn’t inconceivable that this team could compete for a wildcard spot in 2006 or 2007.

Alas, it is only 2005. Jays fans will have an OK team to watch, especially those days that Halladay takes the mound. But they’d be advised to leave early, it is probably going to be rather ugly after the 7th inning or so. I’m putting them down for 74 wins.

Next up: What looks like it could be another Rocky Mountain low in 2005.

Posted by stan at 07:55 PM

March 17, 2005

Baseball Hearings

-Wow, I knew these congressional hearings on steroids would be overwrought, but I didn't think a congressmen would break out the Casey At The Bat quotes in the first 5 minutes!

-Rep. Mark Souder once traded a box of baseball cards, including multiple Mickey Mantles, for ONE Nellie Fox card! That is the kind of forward looking person I want representing me in Congress. Let me guess, he doesn't buy this whole global warming thing because it was cold this morning...

-I haven't seen anyone wag there finger like Rafe Palmeiro since a certain "I did not have sexual relations with that woman..." speech.

-A Dennis Kucinich siting! America's crazy old uncle in the attic is decrying the win-at-any-cost mentality in the United States...that kind of explains his presidential campaign...

-United States Congress, Jose Canseco, a discussion of hypothetical "smart pills"...this will get mentioned when The Fall of the American Empire is published in a couple of hundred years...

-Ah, Congressman Noname quickly adds the "smart pills" should be prescribed to Congress joke, didn't see that coming...

-There are few better phrases than "Linda Chavez's time has expired..."

-Sara: "Henry Waxman shouldn't critize the physical characteristics of anyone."

-Chris Matthews refers to Bud Selig's upcoming commentary as "hot."

-Donald Fehr just handed Henry Waxman his ass, no wonder the player's union always comes out on top...

-Fehr is now doing the same thing to Chris Shays!

-Elijah Cummings completely misinterpreting the concept of the Rope-a-Dope...

-I'd like to nominate Mark Souder as the new under Secretary of feigned indignation...

-Donald Fehr just embarassed Westmoreland now, pointing out that it isn't MLB's responsibility to set legal penalties for drug offenses, a fairly obvious point that shouldn't be lost on a committee of CONGRESSMEN. I'm hoping he has an exploratory committee convened for 2008 at this point...

Posted by stan at 10:10 AM

March 15, 2005

Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee Brewers

Last Year: 5th Place (68-93)

New on Tap: Carlos Lee, Damian Miller, Jose Capellan
Recycled: Danny Kolb, Scott Posednik, Craig Counsell

Infield

Lyle Overbay will start the season as the clubs 1B, with everyone hoping to see more of the first half 2004 Overbay (.944 OPS) than the second half version (.764 OPS). Not your prototypical slugging 1B, he probably tops out at 25 HRs, but he has enough pop to get the ball into the alleys as evidenced by his 53 doubles last year. He also should about be coming into his prime as a hitter, this will be his third full year in the majors and he starts the season at 28. All these things point to a solid 2005 for Overbay, though it is possible that he finishes the season with a different position or team to make room for the clubs top slugging prospect, Prince Fielder.

Cecil’s boy should start the season at AAA and at 21 has certainly progressed rapidly through the system thus far. A strong performance by Overbay will allow Fielder some additional time to develop further in the minors, but given the fact that he is perhaps the top hitting prospect of any team already, my guess is that you’ll see him with the big club before the year is out. The one knock on Fielder is that he definitely inherited his physique from his old man, which translates into a diminished ability in the field and a greater chance of injury. But so far neither have proved to be an issue.

Pretty much the same situation at 2B this year, with Junior Spivey starting the year with the big club, but pretty much just holding the position until prospect Rickie Weeks is ready to step in and play. Spivey made a splash as a rookie for the Diamondbacks back in 2002, but pitchers seem to figure him out the second time around and his numbers have diminished to barely serviceable in the two years since. Weeks, on the other hand, was the #2 overall pick in the 2003 draft and progressed quickly through the minor league system until taking a step back in AA last season. Had that not happened, Weeks might be penciled in to start this season. Regardless, he seemed to find his stroke again in the Arizona Fall League and put up strong numbers across the board. Should Spivey get off to a slow start and Weeks continue his hot hitting this April in AAA, Weeks very well could be with the big club by the All-Star break.

Continuing with the youth movement, rookie JJ Hardy is expected to take the reigns at SS this season and is a potential ROY. After another strong start in AAA last season, Hardy missed much of the season due to injury. He’s healthy now and the Brewers think he has the maturity to adjust to the majors regardless of the fact that he hasn’t played much ball in the last year. In fact, the Brewers had contemplated giving him the job last season and may have if the club hadn’t obtained Craig Counsell via trade. Hardy has hit consistently in the minors showing good plate discipline and has begun to develop mid-range power as he moved up the ladder. In addition, he is rather polished defensively for a 22 year old, so even if his bat is slow to develop he has something to offer the Brewers.

Big Russ Branyan and Wes Helms are in a fight for 3B duties and, the good Lord willing, Helms will get the job over the all-or-nothing Branyan. Injuries ruined much of Helms’ 2004 campaign, but he did put up somewhat respectable numbers as the Brewers full-time 3B in 2003, going 27/63/.261. Branyan, on the other hand, has never batted above .238 in his career and has struck out in over 40% of his major league ABs. To put that in prospective, if the Brewers made the mistake of getting Branyan 550 ABs this season, he could be expected to whiff 220 times. You’d probably get 30 HRs to go with that as well, kind of Steve Balboniesque performance. Jeff Cirillo lurks in the 3B mix as well.

The Brewers signed Damian Miller the off season to handle the catching duties. While his offensive numbers have improved slightly over the years, Milwaukee is clearly looking for someone that will provide guidance to some of their young players and help them continue to develop. He should be able to provide that, as well as some occasional pop here and there. Chad Moeller, another defensive backstop, will spell Miller when he needs it.

Outfield

The main off season addition for Milwaukee was to bring left fielder Carlos Lee in from Chicago in exchange for Scott Podsednik and Luis Vizcaino. Lee is kind of like a good mutual fund, he consistent over the long term of a season, but his production fluctuates quite a bit on a week to week basis. While he doesn’t offer much in the way of defense’s safely a 30/100/.290 guy, but he slumps for long periods of time and then comes out of that funk to go on impressive tears. One wonders what kind of numbers he could produce if he could eliminate one or two of those funks each season – it could catapult him into one of the best outfielders in the league.

In right field, Geoff Jenkins is pretty similar to Lee, though a notch below in overall ability and leaps and bounds better in the field. For Jenkins, it hasn’t been slumps so much as injuries that have kept him from putting up top numbers in the outfield. Last season was the first in a while that he was healthy for the most part, he played in a career high 157 games, and even though his strike outs seem to continue to rise you can expect good if not excellent numbers from Jenkins.

In center field, Brady Clark will be the everyday answer. Clark is a Randy Winn or Mark Kotsay type player, he does everything OK but nothing spectacularly. Maybe he is a notch below those guys. He’d be a great fourth outfielder on one of the power house teams, but he will be adequate as an everyday guy I think.

Dave Krynzel and Corey Hart will fill in if anyone of the starters go down. Krynzel offers impressive speed and Hart offers quite a bit of power, but the Brewers will be in trouble if either are called on to play a significant amount.

The Rotation

The rotation starts and stops with Ben Sheets, who made the leap from a very good pitcher to a great one last season. He signed a $6M/1 year deal this off season, but it will be interesting to see if the Brewers will be able to lock him up in a long term deal or if he will be lost to free agency (in 2006, he is arbitration eligible after this season). Sheets has given his team at least 220 IP the last three season and dominated in 2004 despite battling through back problems that he had surgery to alleviate this off season. Using his 95+ MPH fastball, a sharp curve and improved changeup, Sheets struck out 10 batters per 9 IP and showed marked improvement by reducing his WHIP below 1.00 and handling left-handed hitting better than in the past. The only thing standing in his way from making a run at the 2005 Cy Young award is the anemic performance of the rest of his team. Sheets could be the big prize at the trade deadline this summer or next if the Brewers can’t work out a contract soon.

He’s light years away from Sheets, but Doug Davis provides the Brewers with a very serviceable #2 starter. In fact, he’s done nothing but pitch well since he came over from Toronto, posting outstanding numbers in the second half of 2003 and providing solid outings for the entire 2004 season (3.39 ERA). He doesn’t offer much in the way of stuff, he gets by mainly on a cut fastball and a slow, slower and slowest curveball from multiple angles that keeps the heavy bats off balance. With a bit of run support, Davis is capable of picking up 15 or so wins. No bets on whether he’ll get that support, but if not I think it is safe to say he will have another strong if unrecognized season.

Victor Santos is slotted as the #3 starter this year. After spending most of his career in the bullpen, Santos got his first shot at the rotation and pitched successfully in the first half of the year, going 8-3 before the break. Looking at the numbers a little deeper though, K/BB just barely over 2, WHIP pushing 1.40, it really looks like a lot of that fast start was good fortune. I say this with the benefit of hindsight of course, Santos got shelled in the second half with a 6.00 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP. Santos is a relatively soft throwing control pitcher without great control, he has to really be on to be effective. I’d like him as a #5 man perhaps.

Ben Hendrickson is #4, he got beat around pretty good as a starter for the big club last season. That’s OK though, he is just 24 this year and when he wasn’t getting his rough in Milwaukee he was toying with AAA hitters, going 11-3 with a 2.12 ERA in Indianapolis. He’s done pretty much the same amount of damage at every stop but Milwaukee so far, so it is more of a matter of when and how fast that if Hendrickson will develop into a solid major league starter. His curveball reminds me of the other Ben on the staff.

Chris Capuano should get the #5 spot, barring more injuries. He was decent in his first full season as a starter last year, but nagging injuries and a lack of control kept him from making a real contribution to the team. A fastball, slider, changeup pitcher, Capuano did pile up nearly 9K/9IP, so he has enough movement and pop to full major leaguers. He should continue to develop, if he can keep from consistently getting behind in the count he could be a very nice #5.

There is an outside chance that Dominican flamethrower Jose Capellan could start the year in the rotation. Capellan was the prize from the Atlanta system in return for closer Danny Kolb and dominated at three minor league levels in 2004. There is some concern that he moved throw the minors too quickly and that he was able to rely too much on his 97-98 MPH fastball and as a result hasn’t fully developed his breaking pitches. As a result, he’ll probably at least start the season in the pen and though the Brewers insist otherwise, the kid has future closer written all over him.

The Bullpen

Mike Adams is expected to closer for Milwaukee, but I have to be honest, I have no independent information that allows me to confirm that this man actually exists, let alone will be a quality stopper. Chalk that up to baseball economics 2005, when you are short on cash the first place to cut among the everyday players is with established closers (which is at least evidence of some fiscal sanity in Milwaukee, which you can’t say about some other teams). In any event, he is a hard thrower, touches 95 with his fastball and has a good slider, all of which seem good traits for a closer. If he does indeed exist.

Luis Vizcaino, last year’s setup man, was shipped off to Chicago as part of the deal that brought Carlos Lee to LF, leaving a bit of a hole in the bullpen. Capellan could fit into this spot, but look for the rejuvenated Ricky Bottalico to get the bulk of the time, at least initially. Best know for his frequent and spectacular emulations on the mound as a closer for the Phillies in the late 90s, he actually had a very nice season pitching in relief for the Mets in 2004. He’s a bargain signing, to be sure, but he could provide a steady if not spectacular late innings bridge to Adams.

After that, well, things start getting real thin real fast. Justin Lehr is a bit of as soft tosser who had a lot of success as a minor league closer, but that didn’t translate in his call up to Oakland last year. Brooks Keischnick will provide some decent innings and serve again as a much needed bat off the bench for Milwaukee (he also provides a fun name for announcers to say, which is important on a bad team like this). Jorge de la Rosa throws hard but has yet to harness that power. Wes Obermuller exists in that limbo between long relief and the 5th starter (call it Villoneville). It looks grim.

The Skinny

Yes, yes it does look grim, how this team was over .500 in the first half of last season I'll never understand. I like the addition of Lee in the outfield; that was a definite steal in exchange for Posednik and Vizcaino. Sheets will be great every 5th day, Davis might be very good every 5th day, but after that it’s a crapshoot. When Milwaukee fans aren’t admiring Sheets, I expect they’ll spend most of there time tracking the development of the rookie middle infielders, hoping Capellan and Hendrickson can harness there stuff and waiting for Cecil’s boy to arrive. That and eat a couple of bratwurst and throw down a couple of Shotz brews with the Big Ragu.

Next up: We’re the only team in Canada now, eh?

Posted by stan at 11:04 PM

March 13, 2005

The Washington Nationals

Washington Nationals

Last Year: 5th Place (67-94)

Elected For 2005: Vinny Castilla, Cristian Guzman, Esteban Loaiza
Sent Home by the Voters: Tony Batista, Juan Rivera

Infield

There are a lot of positions that haven’t been permanently decided just yet and one of those is 1B. Nick Johnson is penciled in there for now, but that is only until he gets injured again and is out for the season. He’s missed at least part of each of the last 4 seasons with a variety of ailments ranging from a broken jaw to semi-chronic back issues, but comes into spring training this year (supposedly) with a clean bill of health. The word is that, when healthy, Johnson will give you modest power (15-20 HR), an average in the .300 range and the ability to get on base at a pretty good clip, not to mention a solid glove on the field. But that is all hypothetical, since “healthy” has never happened for Johnson.

When Johnson gets hurt, the Nats plan on moving Brad Wilkerson in from the infield to take his place. Wilkerson was the breakout player for the 2004 Expos, beefing his HR total up from an average of 20ish in the previous few years to 32. What’s more, in the second half he showed the potential to hit for a higher average and OBP than he has thus far in his career, going .274/.391. I’m really interested in watching to see if he can finally put all of these things together for a full season (along with cut down the strike outs), and given that he is just coming into his prime as a 27 year-old, I think the chances are good that he could do it. Throw in 15 or so SB and you have yourself an All-Star in the Brian Giles type mode.

The Nats went out and spent $6.2M over 2 years to sign up the 37 year-old Vinny Castilla to handle 3B this year. I didn’t like the deal much when I first heard it, but it has grown on me a bit in the meanwhile. While no one expects Castilla to approach his 2004 Coors-inflated numbers, it is not a stretch to think that he can put up roughly the same numbers as he did in Atlanta in 2002-2003. If he does that, he can be a solid 20/80/.270 guy at a pretty modest price. Still, the second year seems to be too much, Brendan Harris, acquired from the Cubs last summer, is primed to take of at 3B eventually. You could start him at the league minimum.

Jose Vidro comes back in 2005 trying to regain the form that made many think he’d be the top 2B in the game back around the turn of the century. He went 24/97/.330 that year, and though he has been good since most of his numbers have been trending in the wrong direction since, largely due to injury. The move to Washington should help that somewhat, RFK will have a more forgiving grass surface than the turf in Montreal and Puerto Rico. Add to that a bit more protection in the lineup than he’s seen in the past couple of years and I think you can expect to see Vidro’s numbers turn around and head in the other direction this year.

Cristian Guzman joins Washington to play SS in 2005, signing a $16.8M/4 Year deal this off season. That deal met with some fairly strong criticism and rightly so. He doesn’t offer much in the way of offense as is .303 OBP over the last 3 years shows. He’s got a little speed, but over that same period of time he gets caught stealing just about as much as he makes it safely (13 of 22). No power either. The Nats point to his defensive ability, he lead the league in fielding percentage for SS last season, but those defensive stats aren’t the most telling and a number of Sabrmetricians have argued that he is overrated in even that category. Bad signing, especially for a team short on money.

Behind the plate, Brian Schneider will take be entering his second season as the full time catcher. Schneider showed signs of breaking down in the second half last year, his power numbers dropped after July, but he continued to do what Washington wants him to do: provide superior defense behind the plate and help the young pitching staff along in there development. Schneider threw out a whopping 50% of base stealers last year, which is tough to top. Expect more of the same, solid defense, flashy arm and an adequate bat.

Outfield

The best move the Nats made all off season was to bring Jose Guillen into the fold at the bargain basement price of $3.5M. Acquired from Anaheim for Juan Rivera (who had a very nice second half in 2004) and Macier Izturis, Guillen is a legitimate All-Star with a tremendous arm. Not that I have any inside information or anything (though nohatnocattle’s sources MLB sources are many), but I tend to discount the run-ins Guillen had with the Angels last season. Mike Scioscia seems to me to be something of a hard ass and I think the team may have bought into its “we’re all team players here” reputation enough that the environment might not be the most accepting of players like Guillen with a more than healthy ego and attitude to match. Of course, Frank Robinson seems to be the hard ass type too, so who knows. In any event, he’s a great player adding much needed power and protection in the lineup, no one doubts that. He’s also in a contract year, which tends to straighten some guys out. Rumor has it that he even attended an anger management class this winter. All systems go for Guillen, expect another great year.

Endy Chavez is the experiment in CF. Washington wants his speed (32 SB) at the top of the lineup so they can move Wilkerson down to the 5 spot, but are worried about his ability to get on base consistently (.318 last season). In a way, he is one of the most important guys on the team. If he can handle the everyday job that will allow Wilkerson to produce more runs as well as keep Nick Johnson on the bench. If not, things kind of start to fray a bit. I don’t know, he hasn’t proven he is up to the task yet, but they are a much better team for it if he can add maybe 30 more points to his OBP this season.

The final spot in LF is earmarked for Terrmel Sledge. Sledge got plenty of playing time with the Expos in 2004 and produced mediocre results. The Nats are betting that he can build on that experience in 2005 and begin to develop into a player more in line with his 2003 AAA numbers (22/92/.324 and a .397 OBP). There is also the potential for Sledge to take over in CF if Chavez struggles.

JJ Davis, who missed much of 2004 with injuries but has a reputation as a tools guy, is a long shot to press Chavez & Sledge for playing time in the outfield.

The Rotation

It seems like a long, long time since Livan Hernandez helped lead the Florida Marlin’s to there first World Series championship. Even so, he only turned 30 (granted, 30 in Cuban pitcher years) this February and has spent the better part of the last 5 years being the most underrated pitcher in the game (with all due respect to the pre-2004 Jamie Moyer). Not only has he pitched well in that time (the exception was a sub-par 2001 campaign), he pretty much hasn’t missed a start and has time and again shown the propensity to go deep in games, never throwing fewer than 216 innings, thrice throwing 230+ and topping out at a amazing 255 innings pitched in 2004. You keep waiting and waiting for all these innings to add up, and to be fair there were periods where Hernandez threw like a tired pitcher last season, but they just never seem to catch up to him. The ability to pencil in on guy to provide your team 240 IP each season, to a certain extent regardless of the quality of those innings, is immeasurable, especially when you are considering the cash strapped club that Hernandez has played for the last two seasons. He might be the most valuable pitcher to his team in the entire game going into 2005 (Ben Sheets might argue?). This is a lot of praise for a guy who has lost more than he’s one the last 5 years, but he deserves it.

I’d put old friend Tomo Ohka in the #2 spot. He’s another guy that has quietly put together three strong seasons (3.60 ERA) while banished to Montreal since coming over from the Red Sox in return for Ugie Urbina (the only major league player to ever have the initials UUU). In fact, he may have been on his way to a breakout year, maybe one that people would have noticed, if his season didn’t ostensibly end when he broke his arm on a comebacker in June. Up until that point he’d maintained a 3.01 ERA through 12 starts, though he did get batted around in 3 starts late in the season coming back from the injury that obscured his 2004 numbers somewhat. With his development over the last few years along with the move to Washington, where people might actually attend the games, people could finally start to appreciate Ohka this year. And he still has room for improvement, his WHIP has been in the 1.30-1.40 range the last few years. If he can cut down his walks and get a bit of run support he could be a 15 game winner.

The Nationals are hoping for a healthy Tony Armas Jr. to give them innings in the 3rd spot. He’s missed most of the last two seasons due to shoulder surgeries and has lost time to other ailments as well, it’s beginning to look like the highlight of his career could be the fact that he was once traded for the great Pedro Martinez. Hope springs eternal and Armas Jr. seems to be throwing without pain in spring training thus far, but it’s best not to hold your breathe for the guy.

After Armas Jr., the rotation starts to get a little bit iffy. Estaban Loaiza, another off season signing, is anyone’s guess in the number 4 spot. He’s gone from being one of the worst every 5 days pitchers in baseball for the Blue Jays in 2002 (5.71 ERA), to a legit Cy Young candidate in 2003 (2.90 ERA), back to one what might be to worst 42 innings of pitching for the Yankees the second half of last season (8.50 ERA, .337 BA against and a eye-popping WHIP above 2!). And that doesn’t even count the playoffs.

Rounding out the rotation is young Zach Day. Like Armas Jr., Day has missed parts of the last two seasons with a variety of ailments, including major shoulder troubles. Even so, he has looked promising when on the mound. Day relies on his hard sinker to keep the ball in the park and take advantage of the double play. Much like fellow sinkerballer Brandon Webb, Day has suffered from control problems as big league hitters have learned to lay off his main weapon early and then taking advantage of Day in favorable counts. He’ll need to make improvements here to be effective over the course of 2005.

The Bullpen

Chad Cordero will return to his role as the main closer in 2005, though Frank Robinson has indicated that he may use Luis Ayala to close some games in an effort to take some of the pressure off the 22-year-old. Cordero was inconsistent at times last year, but was impressive given his age and lack of seasoning. Not a fireballer, he spots his fastball in an effort to set up his out pitch, a nasty slider. If there is one area to criticize it is that Cordero is too often up in the zone with his fastball and he doesn’t have the mustard on that pitch to get away with it. The result is that he gives up his share of HRs, not a good trait in a stopper.

Ayala will be there to take over for Cordero should he falter, but expects to be the primary set up man if that doesn’t happen. Ayala has quietly been on of the better set up guys in both seasons since being promoted to the majors, posting an ERA below 3.00 each season. In addition, he’s shown signs of improvement, most notably improving against left-handed batters last season after struggling the year before. Ayala pitches with control and poise and his success will be key to the prospects of the Nats pen this year.

Jon Rauch and Dan Patterson, both hoping to nab a spot in the rotation, will probably fall into the pen. Rauch had mixed success as a starter in Chicago, put performed very well out of the pen for Montreal late last season. He projects as an average arm in the 6th and 7th inning this year. Patterson, who by at least Peter Gammon’s take is back to the form that made him a valuable piece of the puzzle in Arizona in 2002, will probably give the Nats about the same. Nothing special, but not terrible either.

Claudio Vargas and TJ Tucker will also chip in as right-handers; Joey Eischen and Joe Horgan will do the same as left-handers. They are all bit players at best at this point, the Nats will need at least one of this group to step up and take some pressure and innings off of the rest of the pen.

The Skinny

I like this team, but they are extremely thin going into 2005, as you might expect given the payroll constraints they’ve operated under. What they really need is an ownership change that will allow them to add a few more pieces. Chavez is a big key, if he develops into a solid lead it will allow the Nats to be a much better team and give them at least a little depth when the eventually need to deal with injuries over the season. Chavez, Vidro, Guillen, Castilla, Wilkerson is a solid enough lineup to score some runs and stay competitive.

Other than that, it will come down to the health of the pitching staff. The rotation is thin even after penciling Hernandez in for 240 IP and losing one or two of the projected starters would be something they don’t have the resources to deal with this just yet. Even if Patterson or Rauch or even Vargas could step in to help out, the bullpen wouldn’t be able to close out enough close games to stay competitive. Mike Hinckley and Clint Everts are the top pitching prospects in a minor league system that has been ravaged by lack of funds over the last 5 years, but it is perhaps too much to expect that either could make a significant contribution to the 2005 season (Everts is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery).

But the people of Washington will have a fun team to watch the first year, even if they are not playoff bound. And frankly I think they’d be happy with a boring team to watch after being teamless over the last 20 years. Put them down for 77 wins.

Next up: Laverne & Shirley’s hometown team.

Posted by stan at 04:57 PM

March 11, 2005

Baseball Timeline

Hey, I really like this. I think I'd like to buy a copy and frame it, once they update it for last season's WS.

Posted by stan at 03:27 PM

March 06, 2005

The Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners

Last Year: 4th Place (63-99)

Welcome Aboard: Adrian Beltre, Richie Sexson, Pokey Reese, Aaron Sele
Bon Voyage: Jolbie Cabrera, Edgar Martinez

Infield

So what do you do when your team drops from 110+ wins to 63 in the matter of three seasons? You take some chances and sign some sluggers in the hopes that it will placate the fans. Even if it probably isn’t the best use of the clubs money. Seattle’s first poke at this strategy came with the signing of Richie Sexson, who missed most of last season with the Diamondbacks because of shoulder trouble. Sexson is what he is, a free swinging guy with incredible power and an incredible propensity to strike out. While he has made some progress in cutting down the strike outs, what this usually means is that Sexson puts up big numbers, but usually not against quality pitching. That makes him a very nice player for a fourth place team and makes it understandable that no team in contention has ever expressed much interest in him. In Sexson’s defense, he seems healthy so far through spring training, and except for last season has had a been a very durable and very consistent player. Expect 40 HRs, but not many in big spots.

At the other corner of the diamond, the Mariners brought in last years NL HR champ, Adrian Beltre, in the second biggest signing of the off season ($65M/5 years). There are three explanations that I can think of for last season’s metamorphosis: the still only 26-year-old is finally coming into his own physically and mentally; the guy who rightly or wrongly has been knocked for having a terrible attitude decided to care because his contract was up at the end of the season; or, well, chemical enhancement. If I were the Mariners, I wouldn’t have been sure enough that first reason was the accurate one to give him that kind of contract. But I’m not, and if Seattle is right then they have a very young, very good player at the 3B for the next 5 years. But I’m not sure if that high-risk-high-reward strategy is the best answer for a team that has a lot of holes to fill.

Speaking of chemical enhancement, Bret Boone will be back as the teams starting 2B. The rumors had swirled about Boone a lot earlier than his mention in Jose Canseco’s new book. His drop off in 2004 was fodder for a lot of jokes, but he also was playing with a couple of nagging injuries last season in a wretched lineup and he was starting to look a little old (36 this year). With all those factors, it’s hard to know what to expect from Boone this year or really any year from now on. The day’s of 30+ HRs/.330 averages are gone I think, but he could respond positively to the new support in the lineup and put up solid seasons for the next few years. A 2B that goes 20/85/.285 and plays stellar defense is nothing to sniff at, after all.

And then there is old friend Pokey Reese as SS. The fans of Seattle will have to put up with all of the pink jerseys with “Pokey” scrawled on the back. They’ll get to make the jokes with friends when they see a guy walking down the street with a “Pokey” jersey. Did his girlfriend buy it for him and he’s just placating her? I hope his girlfriend bought it for him, the poor soul. Anyway, there isn’t much to discuss with Pokey, he’s all corn rows and leather; the pitchers will love him. And there is some hope offensively, the big field in Seattle might be perfect for him if he can slash some balls into the corners and alleys he’ll be standing on 3B more often than not. Regardless, everyone likes a guy named Pokey.

Behind the plate, Miguel Olivo expects to get the bulk of the time, with veteran Dan Wilson backing him up. Olivo, who came over from the White Sox in the deadline deal that landed them Freddy Garcia, may be a future All-Star with the potential to hit 20 HRs and even swipe 10 or so bases a year. But he hasn’t reached that potential yet, there are questions about his defense (but not his canon arm) and his ability to handle a pitching staff. Being under the wing of Wilson is the prefect remedy for these shortcomings, those are the traits that have kept Wilson on a major league roster for the better part of the last 15 years despite his limitations with the bat. Expect Olivo to succeed where Ben Davis failed.

The primary DH will be one of the more unsung guys around, Raul Ibanez. A career spent playing in Kansas City and Seattle will do that to a guy, I guess. He is good for 20 HR/80 RBI every year, and those numbers could improve now that he is a part of a stronger lineup.

Outfield

Ichiro. Boy, there’s not a player in baseball not named Derek Jeter that I dislike more than this guy. He is obviously a talented guy, but could a player (again, not named Jeter) possibly be more overrated? I guess it’s a feat to break a 70 year-old record, but George Sisler wasn’t dropping down bunts with a man on second in the ninth inning of a tie game knowing he had Bucky Jacobson batting behind him. What is he, the Japanese Wade Boggs? This can’t go over well with the other players, even on a team that is 40 games back, the supposed best player on the team, suppose to be one of best players in the game, bunting with a game on the line. I don’t think Sisler got a quarter of his hits by beating out dribblers to the left side of the infield. Maybe he’s the Japanese Alex Sanchez. He’s a tremendous defensive player, obviously fast enough to put some pressure on a defense, but lets get a hold of ourselves here, he wasn’t in the top 50 for OPS last season. FIFTHY! Kevin Mench? Better OPS than Ichiro. Eli Marrero? Better OPS than Ichiro. Mike Lamb and John Mabry? Same OPS as Ichiro. Mike Lamb! The year he won the MVP award his numbers didn’t belong in the same conversation as, speaking of chemical enhancement, Jason Giambi, but hey, he’s got that cool Madonna thing going on with his last name so, lets vote for him baseball writers! What is he, the Japanese University of Michigan Law School? And if I have to here one more local sportscaster on the baseball package talk about how he could hit 40 HRs if he wanted to I may have to jump out the window. Ichiro.

Calming down a bit, Randy Winn will be moving from center to left field this year. In contrast to Ichiro, it is hard not to like Winn as a player. He’s never going to draw much attention to himself with his game, but he consistently puts up solid numbers in all areas of the game. He’ll give you 15 HRs, 85 RBI, score 85 runs, swipe 20 bases and perform more than admirably in the field, very few mental mistakes. He’s a good supporting cast type guy to have on a team and perhaps the very definition of a guy who, while never to be confused with a hall of famer, had a very nice career for himself. I don’t know why, but these are the type of guys that fascinate me. 30 years for now, Randy Winn’s name is going to come up in conversation and people are going to say, “Oh yeah, remember Randy Winn? He had a nice little career.”

Winn is moving to center to make way for uber-prospect Jeremy Reed, one of the early favorites for ROY. He also came over from Chicago in the Freddy Garcia deal and was very impressive in his 18 game stint with the big club, hitting .397, but with not much power. The power should come, but he has shown himself to be adept in getting on base at all levels and should continue to do so in 2005. I think of him as a supped-up version of Kevin Youkilis with speed right now and a chance to develop into much more in the coming years.

The Rotation

It doesn’t seem like that long ago that the Mariners looked set in this department for years to come. Freddy Garcia was just reaching his prime, Jamie Moyer still wasn’t aging, young arms like Meche and Soriano and Pineiro were on the way and Kaz Sasaki was force at the end of games. Things didn’t work out too well, and to compound things Seattle traded number one Freddy Garcia and spent all of there off season money at the corner infield spots. I guess we’ll at least be able to determine if the staff’s sub-par performance last year was because of terrible run support and terrible luck or if the rotation just isn’t that good.

It is never a good sign when your team’s top starter is 42 years-old, but that seems to be the case here. Moyer was a solid middle of the rotation guy up through the 2003 season, he won 13+ games every year since 1997 (including 20 in 2001) with a sub 4.00 ERA in all but one of those years. He always gave up a lot of HRs as a soft tosser, but inexplicably seemed to keep the best hitting teams in the game off balance with an panoply of off speed pitchers and different arm angles. Then came 2004, where everyone seemed to finally catch up to one of the winningest pitchers of the last decade; he gave up a whopping 44 HRs. So, is it the end of Jamie Moyer? I say no. Moyer actually started 2004 fairly strong, with an ERA in the 3.40 range through June. I think the problem was mechanics, and when you throw an 80 MPH fastball small mechanical problems produce horrendous numbers. But there is no physical reasons why Moyer can’t keep on keeping on and he’s shown the ability to out think hitters pretty consistently for the last 10 years. I say he’ll be back to old form this year, maybe fewer IP, but he’ll take advantage of that big home field and the upgraded defense and continue to frustrate all those overly-aggressive sluggers out there.

Joel Pineiro probably has the best stuff in the rotation and he was poised to take over the role of staff ace until everything went wrong in 2004. He started 1-8 and was hurt by a lack of defense, a lack of run support and then finally a shoulder injury that mercifully ended his season in July. This spring he still isn’t 100%, but he’s expected to be ready for the start of the season. Like everyone else, he’ll take advantage of the new defense this year and should be expected to be back to his hard throwing good control self this season. If all goes well, he should be a candidate to make the leap to #1 starter status in 2006.

The oft-injured Gil Meche is next in the rotation, coming off a year that started horribly, included a trip back to the minors and then finally ended with a glimmer of hope in which he finished the season 6-2 with a sub 4.00 ERA. That seems always to be the case with Meche, glimmers of hope and signs of promise followed by setback after setback. 2005 is anyone’s guess, the standard deviation on this guy’s performance is off the charts.

The last two spots will be divvyed up between young Bobby Mastrich, young Cha Seung Baek and old Ryan Franklin. The first two showed some promise last season, Mastrich especially, and are probably the best candidates for the job. Mastrich is a relatively hard throwing, no nonsense type, there has been talk of him having a future as a closer at some point. Baek, well, I think he is Korean and know he is young. Aaron Sele will be skulking around somewhere in the mix for a spot too.

Last note, keep your eyes peeled for the crown jewel of the minor league system, Felix Hernandez. Even at only 18, we may see him as a September call up; he's got three pitches that are close to major league ready as he enters spring training this year. If he does make it this year, expect the Mariners to be incredibly cautious with his young arm.

The Bullpen

The affable and not-so-everyday Eddie Guardado is back for a second go as the Mariner’s closer. He had a rough year in 2004, suffering through shoulder and knee injuries that contributed to his 7 blown saves in only 41 appearances. But his underlying numbers were still strong, a sub 3.00 ERA, a sub 1.00 WHIP and a sub .200 BA against. He spent the off season trying to tweak his mechanics to improve control and take some of the pressure off his knees which can be a tough transition, especially for an older guy that has gotten use to throwing a certain way. He should be adequate.

Shigi Hasagawa and JJ Putz also return in the pen. Both players have had some limited success as closers, Shigi in 2003 and Putz last season. Look for Putz to fill in as closer if something happens to Eddie and Hasagawa to post numbers more representative of his 2003 season than of 2004. Both guys are very good options in the 7th and 8th innings.

The rest of the bullpen is less well defined. The journeyman Ron Villone will pitch in long relief, there are worse options and a selection of unproven guys or guys coming off injuries – George Sherrill, Julio Mateo, hard-throwing lefty Matt Thorton (another future closer?) – will be swapped in and out of the pen. Rafael Soriano, one of my favorite prospects to keep tabs on the last 2 or 3 years, could be back from Tommy John surgery in July, which would be a very nice boost for the pen. All in all though, I expect this group to be just a little bit better than average.

The Skinny

I don’t at all like how they spent there money in the off season, they desperately needed a starting pitcher like Derek Lowe or Odalis Perez to stabilize the rotation, but I think this team can be much better than last year and make a run at the playoffs if things go right. Ichiro and Winn will get on base and Boone, Beltre and Sexson will drive them in quite a bit. In addition to the run support, the defense should be tremendous. Reese, Boone, Beltre, Ichiro and Winn are all gold-glove caliber defenders. And they can’t possibly suffer as many injuries as they did in 2004.

That said, the rotation is still a major question mark. Moyer is 42, Pineiro and Meche are coming back from rough campaigns, Madstritch and the 5th starter are unproven and there isn’t much depth beyond these guys; 10 starts for Ron Villone or Aaron Sele will not be a good sign. If a couple of these guys blow up in 2005, it won’t matter how much the defense has improved. Yet this group still has the potential to be above average and the bullpen has the potential to be downright good. They could hang around and give the Angels and Rangers some trouble, but in the end I think they’ll fall just shy of making the playoffs.

Last though, this is one of the few teams around in the last couple of years to basically have an everyday player at each position 1 thru 9. Not one platoon or positional battle going into the season. A throwback, these Mariners of Seattle.

Put them down for 88 wins.

Up Next: The new squad in the nation's capital.

Posted by stan at 06:41 PM

March 04, 2005

Lunch Break

There is something that's A-OK about watching baseball games on ESPN during your lunch break. This living right by work thing could become a problem once the season starts.

Posted by stan at 03:52 PM

February 27, 2005

Kansas City Royals

Kansas City Royals

Last Year: 5th Place (58-104)

Welcome Aboard: Jose Lima, Terrance Long, Eli Marrero
Farewell: Juan Gonzalez, Joe Randa, Benito Santiago, Desi Relaford

Infield

From 1999-2001 Mike Sweeney was arguably one of the toughest outs in baseball, averaging just fewer than 30 HRs & 120 RBI a year, all the while getting on base 4 out of every 10 trips to the plate. That’s when the back problems started and since then Sweeney has missed at least a quarter of each season and been a shell of his former self when in the lineup. 2005 represents a last chance of sorts, as GM Allan Baird will face increasing pressure to move Sweeney and the remaining $33M he is owed over the next 3 year (Texas & Anaheim are already said to have inquired) and Sweeney has already indicated that he is willing to waive his no-trade privileges. For Sweeney’s part, he spent the off-season participating in a training regimen almost exclusively dedicated to strengthening that cranky back and has said that it feels as good as ever. Stay tuned.

If Sweeney does go down, the rotund starting DH Ken Harvey will try to fill his shoes. Harvey has hit .478 in college ball, .380 in A-Ball, .338 in AA, tore it up in AAA Omaha and won an MVP in the Arizona Fall League. His first two years in Kansas City haven’t been that successful, but he has held his own and his numbers improved across the board in his second campaign. There is no reason to expect this to stop, Harvey should be in Tony Pena’s lineup everyday and should make a run at 25 HRs this year. If he does, that will make Baird’s decision regarding Sweeney a little easier and if Sweeney does get moved, open the door for Big Cal Pickering to slide into the DH spot.

Chris Truby is expected to start the season at 3B, but that is expected to last only as long as it takes to get Moneyball prospect Mark Teahen ready for the majors. Teahen was acquired in the deal that send Carlos Beltran to Houston and was compared favorably to Jason Giambi before he developed his power (and presumably got involved in that other stuff). Teahen’s power still isn’t there, but at the very least he should be putting up Sean Burroughs-like respectable numbers for the big league club by the time September rolls around. What happens after that is anyone’s guess.

Same story, different position. Career utility man Tony Graffanino should be playing 2B for Kansas City on opening day, but Ruben Gotay is the long term hope for that spot. The switch-hitting Gotay held his own with the bat as a late season call up last year (though he had a horrible winter), but he looked lost defensively at times is expected to get a bit more time in AAA to polish his game before coming back to Kansas City for good. Still only 22, Gotay is not a speedster, but could develop into a Todd Walker-like 2B in time.

Angel Berroa will be back to give it another go at SS this year. After his rookie of the year performance in 2003, Berroa imploded last spring, spent some time on the DL due to migraine headaches and eventually was demoted back to AA to help figure things out. But, good news, it seems like he did just that and returned to Kansas City looking as good as he ever has. 2005 is anyone’s guess, but clearly the bloom is off rose of Berroa’s ROY campaign. He’s still just 26, but he’ll have to show some improvement this year to be considered a solid long-term option at SS for a club.

Outfield

Life as the heir apparent to Carlos Beltran wasn’t easy for Dave DeJesus, nor must have been having his 1-23 start detailed on the Imus in the Morning Show last April. DeJesus recovered when he returned to the club in June and ended the season with respectable numbers. He’s the only sure thing in the Kansas City outfield this year, he’ll lead off for the Royals and is expected to build on has 2nd half success of last year. Expect his on-base percentage to improve, it was around .400 in his three years in the minors, and his power to continue to develop. It might also be nice if the Royals give the man some instruction on base stealing, his speed only translated into only 8 SBs in 19 attempts last year.

The rest of the outfield is a crap shoot, with Matt Stairs, Terrance Long and Abraham Nunez figuring to share the majority of the corner outfield duties. The Hamster and Long are guys that a lot of teams would like as their fourth outfielders (I’ve been arguing for the Sox to sign Stairs each of the last three off-seasons, they haven’t obliged), but neither has the consistency for an everyday role. Nunez, on the other hand, still has a reputation as a 5-tool type guy. At 28, he isn’t a prospect anymore, but he’s never gotten a chance to play everyday either, this should be it. Eli Marrero and Aaron Guiel figure to step in case of injury.

The Rotation

It seems like every spring people are wondering if Kansas City’s young pitchers will finally make the leap as major leaguers and every fall those same people are lamenting the rash of arm injuries and other problems that didn’t let it happen. Nothing has changed this year and this spring a full 10 pitchers come to camp with hopes of securing a slot in the rotation. Second year starter Zack Greinke is the most promising of those 10 and may get the nod on opening day. Greinke looked dominate at times last season, getting ahead in the count with his mid nineties fastball and working off it with a variety of off speed pitches. Greinke walked only 26 in 145 IP last year, the same command he has shown throughout his minor league career. He got dinged by the long ball a little too often (also 26), be he is an easy bet to continue to develop into a front half of the rotation pitcher.

Next up, Runelvys Hernandez will be making his return from Tommy John surgery that forced him to miss all of the 2004 season. Hernandez was actually the opening day starter in 2003, where he started off very strong until his elbow started acting up. It’s probably too early to ask a lot from Hernandez, a lot of pitchers aren’t back to their old self until 18-24 months after the surgery, but no one doubts his raw stuff. He’s got a lot of pop on his fastball, which he also gets a lot of movement on when he takes a little bit off, and features a nasty slider and an improving sinker.

Brian Anderson and Jose Lima will fill into the 3 and 4 slots, providing little more than innings and, at least in Lima’s case, overwrought antics. To be fair, Lima looked decent at times pitching in Los Angeles at times last season, but there is little hope of him returning to his form of old and one wonders how much of a help the comfortable confines of Chavez Ravine provided Lima’s numbers last season.

The number 5 spot? Jimmy Gobble, Kyle Snyder (he of two Tommy John surgeries), Mike Wood, Denny Bautista, Ryan Jenson and even old friend Dennis Tankersley are in the running. Look for Wood (more spoils from the Carlos Beltran divestiture) to get the spot for now, while Gobble and the others get a spot in the pen or more seasoning in the minors.

The Bullpen

Jeremy Affeldt is back for another go in the closer role; Kansas City has indicated that 2003 strike-zone challenged closer Mike MacDougal will not regain the role, regardless of his health. On paper Affeldt seems the perfect stopper, a mid nineties fastball, a strong off speed pitch and a cocky attitude; but that translated into only 13 saves in 17 opportunities last year, with many of the 13 on the shaky side. But there were health questions last season and the role was a new one for Affeldt, he seems a good bet to grow into the role in 2005 and provide Kansas City with a solid bet to nail down the close ones.

The rest of the pen doesn’t look pretty; a collection of injured veteran relievers on the down side of their careers (Scott Sullivan) or career minor-leaguers that wouldn’t be a consideration for most other major league squads (DJ Carrasco, Shawn Camp, Nate Field). The lone bright spot behind Affeldt seems to be token LOOGY Jaime Cerda, who held lefties to a .185 average last year and, but for a few rough outings at the close of the season, held his ERA below 3.00.

The Skinny

Everything that could have gone wrong seemed to last season, as the hope provided by the team’s performance in 2003 fell away by late May. Under Tony Pena the team never seemed to give up though and the enthusiasm he inspires in the clubs young players will be as important as ever this year. Much like 2004, Kansas City will be playing under the cloud of being forced to trade one of its last remaining veteran stars and all the commentary that accompanies being a small market club. Still, the future has some glimmer of brightness, DeJesus, Harvey, Teahen and Gotay will all be playing regularly in the second half, a good nucleus of young, cheap players for a small market team to build around. Likewise with the pitching staff, Greinke & Hernandez figure to establish themselves as front half of the rotation guys and you have to figure at least one of the Gobble, Snyder, Wood troika will begin to pan out in 2005. That, combined with Affeldt anchoring the bullpen, still will not put Kansas City into contention this year, but will set them up for a run in the AL Central starting in 2006.

Put them down for 72 wins.

Next up: Seattle tries to comeback from a disastrous 2004.

Posted by stan at 03:42 PM

February 22, 2005

Spring Training Quote of The Day

"That's my personality. I can't change it. If I change it, my father will hit me in the head with the bottle of water."

-Big Papi, on whether success has changed him

Posted by stan at 12:50 PM

February 16, 2005

Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona Diamondbacks
Last Year: 5th Place (51-111), 42 GB

Welcome to the Desert: Javier Vazquez, Troy Glaus, Shawn Green, Russ Ortiz, Jose Cruz Jr., Shawn Estes, Craig Counsell

On to Greener Pastures: Randy Johnson, Richie Sexson, Shea Hillenbrand, Casey Fossum

Infield

Gone is Richie Sexson, the D-Backs key acquisition last off-season, who ended up playing only 23 games for his new club before having season-ending surgery to repair cartilage in his left shoulder. The free-swinging (and often missing) Sexson will be replaced by the equally free-swinging (and a bit less often missing) Troy Glaus, who managed a more sporting 58 games before having his season interrupted due to problems with his right shoulder. After the season was over, both signed 4-year deals in the $40M ballpark. If the swap seems like a wash, that’s largely because it is. Glaus is a little younger, a little cheaper and he did get off to a torrid start last year, but he has also missed the better part of his last two seasons now because of a variety of ailments. At the end of the day, both guys will give you the same thing, .260/35/110. It doesn’t matter much which guy the D-Backs go with, they just need one of them in the lineup everyday.

Assuming Glaus’ shoulder is healthy enough to make the throw from 3B, Chad Tracy will be handling the bulk of time at 1B. The D-Backs moved the decidedly average Shea Hillenbrand to Toronto to free up time for Tracy, the thinking being that with regular playing time he could develop into another…well, Shea Hillenbrand. But he’s cheap and they signed old friend Tony Clark as insurance, so look for Tracy to have a nice, quiet adequate year.

In the middle infield, the D-Backs have assembled a mélange of light-hitting utility types that will probably be sharing a lot of the duties. Craig Counsell will probably be back as the regular at 2B, bringing perhaps some karma from the 2001 championship year but little else. Hey, at least it will keep the TV analysts from having to come up with something new to say (“What a gamer this guy is…”). Royce Clayton, Alex Citron (who looked impressive in the Puerto Rican League this winter), Matt Kata and Scott Hairston will all compete for playing time.

The D-Backs don’t have much experience behind the plate, with Koyie Hill and Chris Snyder each taking a shot at the catching duties. The word is the Hill has some pop in his bat, but not much experience in calling a game. They’re learning, Kelly Stinnett was signed to a minor league deal to act as mentor.

Outfield

The D-Backs kept on dealing and, after much, much, much drama, landed Shawn Green to fill there right field spot, with the Dodgers throwing in an extra $10M to help defray his costs. The D-Backs quickly reworked Green’s contract, extending it to 3 years at a bargain rate of about $7.5M/year including LA’s contribution. It’s hard to tell how much Green’s performance has been affected by injuries over the last two years, he’s known for quietly playing through just about everything (save Yom Kippur), or if he has just been losing a step. I tend to lean towards the former, but either way he has averaged 30 HRs over the last three years, which is a decided upgrade from the erstwhile Danny Bautista. And the man has a gold glove to boot.

Speaking of guys losing a step, Luis Gonzalez is working his way back from Tommy John surgery. There are real questions about how well LuGo will be able to make throws from left field, last year pre-surgery efforts weren’t pretty (I remember cringing more than once when watching the late-night west coast games on the baseball package in my apartment back in Boston), but there should be much less effect on his performance in the batter's box. Look for the 37-year old to make a bit of a comeback, but I don’t think he’ll hold up playing everyday, he’ll need some nights off here or there and is only a year or two away from needing to explore a DH role.

Rounding things out in centerfield, the D-Backs brought in the enigmatic Jose Cruz Jr. in a trade for oh-how-the-mighty-have-fallen Casey Fossum. I’ve watched quite a bit of Cruz in the AL East for the better part of the last 7 seasons and, with the exception of a few glimpses around the turn of the century, have never gotten the feeling that Jose cared all that much. No reason to think he will this year, pencil him in for a .250 average, a lot of swings at pitches in the dirt and a morose look on his face.

The Rotation

In the best move of the off-season, Arizona moved its aging ace Randy Johnson to NY in exchange for Javier Vazquez, a few pieces that made the Green deal possible and $9M of George Steinbrenner’s money. Johnson still dominated last year, but a $15M/year 39-year old that needed saline injections in his knees to get out to the mound every fifth day wasn’t what the D-Backs needed to turn things around. And while Vasquez had a horrible second half last year, let’s not forget that he was the gem of the free agent market last off-season. Still only 28, he’s a cinch for 220 IP, can be downright dominating for long stretches of time and has been compared favorably to Pedro Martinez in the mental aspects of pitching; I’m betting the three months were a fluke. The folks in Arizona (not to mention the ones in Boston) should be quite pleased to benefit from the Yankees panic move, and with NY picking up part of the tab, they’ve got him for 3 years of what should be his prime for a shade over $8M/year.

Next up, my favorite pitcher to watch on this squad last year, the sinkerballing Brandon Webb. Stuck playing on the west coast and without a fancy leg kick or other such gimmick, Webb was robbed of the 2003 rookie of the year award by Dontrelle Willis. Both players took a step back in 2004, and with the league learning to layoff some of Webb’s pitches he racked up an alarming WHIP of 1.50. Still, you had to be impressed with his second year despite the 7-16 record, his ERA was still strong at 3.59 (his defense allowed an astounding 28 unearned runs) and he still gave up fewer hits than IPs. With better run-support, better defense and an off-season to adjust, I like Webb as a strong complement to the club ace.

The D-Backs brought two other pitchers in via free agency, the declining Russ Ortiz (a whopping $32M/4 Years) and the perpetually declined Shawn Estes ($2.5M/1 Year). It’s hard to decide which deal is worse, Ortiz, whose ERA, WHIP and HR allowed have moved in the wrong direction for each of the last 4 years or Estes, in whose last solid season I was graduating college. Seriously, Estes might be the worst pitcher to take the mound regularly over the last 5 years, a model for ever young couple to hope they have a left-handed son some day.

In the fifth spot, Oscar Villarreal, Mike Gosling and former Yankee Brad Halsey all will compete. Assuming his arm is OK, look for Villarreal to get the nod, he has a little more seasoning than the others. Plus his name is more fun to say, Oscar Villarreal….Oscar Villarreal…Oscar Villarreal.

The Bullpen

The D-Backs tried to make improvements in a lot of areas this off-season, but the bullpen is still a mess. Greg Aquino will close, and while the converted shortstop showed a lot of poise and control in his cameo in that role last year, there are still a lot of questions as to how long that will keep up. Mike Koplove was a steady if not spectacular presence in the pen last year (76 appearances/4.05 ERA), and is back for another go as is the less steady and certainly not spectacular lefty-specialist Randy Choate (74 appearances/4.62 ERA). After that, there’s Jose Valverde (another fun name to say) and Brandon Lyon, both are decent options that have closed games in the past, but both are back from major arm injuries as well. The losers of the battle for the last spot in the rotation will most likely fill out the pen. It was bad last year and it will be bad this year, these guys will cost Arizona some games.

The Skinny

Well, they’ll certainly be better than last year and are on their way back to respectability. Vazquez and Webb give them something to build around and a healthy Glaus, Green and Gonzalez in the middle of the order is a decent threat. The problem is that after those 5 guys the talent really drops off the table. Tracy could be a nice complementary player; Villarreal could develop into a solid back of the rotation arm, but there are too many holes to plug. I’d have much rather see them take the money they spent on Ortiz and spread it around on three or four solid bullpen arms/role player types.

One last thing, this batting order has some serious strike out potential. Glaus, Cruz Jr., Green & Clayton will all whiff over a 100 times and some others will be in the ballpark. If I lived in Arizona, I’d pick up tickets every game that Jason Schmidt or Ben Sheetsis in town, you could see an 18 or 19 K performance.

Put them down for 78 wins.

Next up: Tony Pena's young bunch in Kansas City.

Posted by stan at 01:17 PM

February 15, 2005

Pitchers and Catchers

Yes indeed, there is a extra little hop in the nohatnocattle step today. Tune in tomorrow as we begin our first of 30 capsules covering each major league team from the good to the bad to the evil.

Posted by stan at 11:05 AM

February 06, 2005

Holy Cow!

Can you believe that the Sox were down 3-0 to the Yankees and came back to win? And then they won the World Series to boot?

Oh yeah, way to go Pats.

Posted by stan at 10:19 PM

January 24, 2005

Opening Day

Is in just a little over 69 days...

Posted by stan at 10:41 AM

December 31, 2004

Go Yanks Go!

Just when I was getting over the disappointment of the Yanks not being able to consummate a horrendeous three way trade with the Diamondbacks and Dodgers, they come back at me with an even worse deal!

They Get:

-A 42-year-old pitcher with a bad back who needs saline injections in his knee to pitch. For THREE years! For $16M/year!

They Give Up:

-A 28-year-old pitcher that was unanimously seen as the best piching signing of 2004, eats innings like a knuckleballer, strikes out a bunch of guys and is widely considered to be one of the smartest men in baseball

-One of there two marketable minor leaguers, making it more difficult for them to make trades at the deadline this year

-Another $9M, just for kicks

-A slam dunk chance at signing Carlos Beltran. They may still get him, but even the Yankees eventually run up against financial constraints

In sum, they give up two guys that could be hurting the Sox for the next 10 years for a pitcher whose body could go caput at any moment.

This, in the shadow of the real most important deal of the year, the sox signing Wade Miller for change. Wade has had a sub 3.40 ERA three of the last four years, including during a year where his shoulder was coming apart.

I'm really starting to look forward to the century of the Boston Red Sox.

Posted by stan at 11:24 AM

December 21, 2004

Alone

I'm apparently the only person in Boston that was actually hoping for the Randy Johnson trade to go through for the Yankees. Think about it, the Yanks would loss Javier Vasquez, who was the biggest thing since sliced bread only one year ago. No way he pitches as bad as he did last year, more likely he is back to his innings-eating ways in 2005. And he's just a kid, we could have to deal with him for the next 7-8 years. They'd also lose their only two marketable minor leaguers, meaning that they'd be in a much weaker position to add to their roster once the trade deadline rolls around.

They'd give all that up for a 41 year-old that needs regular saline injections in his knee, has a baulky back and is going to make them give him $17M/year through 2007. And they get a kind of expensive Japanese pitcher that has a decided phobia about throwing strikes.

What's not to like about that deal? Maybe it makes the Yanks marginally better in '05, but it sure hastens the decline of the dynasty.

Posted by stan at 10:17 PM

December 16, 2004

Renteria

I cannot tell you how disappointed I was to learn that the Red Sox signed Edgar Renteria to such a crazy contract. 4 years/$40M? That is an awful lot of money for a guy who hits 12 HRs a year. Especially when they have Hanley Rameriez on his way in the minors and/or could have signed Cabrera, who loves/is loved by the city of Boston, for $2M-$3M less a year. Then you could have used that extra money to overspend to get the last solid free agent pitcher left, Matt Clement (someone will have to overspend now), or pick yourself up another solid arm for the bullpen.

Frankly, the only deal I like so far is Miribelli for 2-years/$3M. I am starting to worry about the '05 sox.

Posted by stan at 05:04 PM

December 14, 2004

Pedro

So just like that, the most dominant pitcher I've ever seen in my lifetime is gone. I don't particularly blame him, the deal from the Mets was significantly better and he can escape the bile-ridden Boston sports media that focuses 85% of its time on the Red Sox for at least a fresh start with the NY sports media that only focuses 20% of its attention on the Mets. I always find it curious when a player leaves Boston and the press expounds on how much they'll be missing by not being the center of attention in Boston. It never occurs to them that being derided by a bunch of jealous writers day-in day-out probably plays into the players' decisions.

Now we have to start worrying about the Sox doing something crazy like giving Edgar Renteria the $40M they had reserved for Pedro. And to top it off, the Mets don't play in Houston until July, so I won't even get to see Pedro down there.

Posted by stan at 09:35 AM

December 03, 2004

BALCO

The faux-indignation polluting the NY newspapers, most notably here, here and here, is really starting to get ridiculous. Does anyone actually believe that if Jason Giambi hit .330 with 45 HRs the last two years and/or didn't have an over-market contract that these same people in NY would be so outraged?

Witness Gary Sheffield, every bit as guilty as Giambi. The above three articles mention his name exactly zero times, even though he admitted out in the open that he'd done pretty much the same thing, with the caveat that he "didn't know they were steroids" (so he's a cheater and not so smart I guess). The real caveat in this is that Sheffield crushed the ball last year for NY, and probably will do the same next year.

Build 'em up so you can tear 'em down, the eternal cycle of sports reporting.

Posted by stan at 10:11 AM

December 01, 2004

Catchers

I'll say it: $55M/5 years is too much for Jason Varitek, as much as I like him. I'd rather go with Doug Mirrabelli at $1.5M/year and spend that additonal $9.5M/year on some other free agents out there.

Posted by stan at 11:00 AM

November 22, 2004

What's Doing At Fenway

A sneak peek at the Fenway field reconstruction.

Posted by stan at 10:29 PM

November 20, 2004

World Champion Grafitti

Posted by stan at 02:22 PM

November 09, 2004

Don't You Have Enough Money Yet?

Here's your chance to get advice on where to buy your next purse and where do get your next dose of steroids, all under one roof!

Posted by stan at 01:45 PM

October 29, 2004

What's the World Coming To?

First the Red Sox win the World Series, now this morning on the way to work I noticed a large group of people gathered in front of the Boston Public Library, persumably anxious to get in and get after all those books? What the hell is going on?

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Posted by stan at 11:23 AM

October 28, 2004

Speaking of Parades...

...news reports suggest that the sox parade will be going right by our apartment. We're just on the other side of Boylston from the Back Bay Fens, with a great roof view.

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Posted by stan at 11:23 AM

Helicopters

There are STILL two helicopters circling Fenway right now. While I appreciate that they cut the number down from the six we spotted from the roof last night, I think it's time someone tell these fellas to go home and rest up for the parade.

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Posted by stan at 11:23 AM

Bandwagon

The sports guy sums up what we were all thinking:

"6:10 - Following a Ramirez single, Fox shows Jimmy Fallon and Drew Barrymore wearing Red Sox sweatshirts and clapping excitedly. I wish I was actually driving the Red Sox Bandwagon right now, just so I could screech to a halt, whirl around, point to them and scream, "Get off! RIGHT NOW! I mean it! Get off! Move it! Gather your things and GET OFF!""

Though it should be noted that the Sports Guy would have to park the sellout wagon somewhere before he slid behind the wheel of the Red Sox Bandwagon. He still has it every once in a while, kind of like Shaunessey.

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Posted by stan at 11:23 AM

You're Hurting Me!