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March 20, 2005
Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays
Last Year: 5th Place (67-94)
New Chicks: Corey Koskie, Shea Hillenbrand, Scot Schoeneweis
Flown From the Coop: Carlos Delgado, Kevin Cash
Infield
This will be the first time in the last 10 years that the Jays didn’t enter spring training with the great Carlos Delgado firmly entrenched at first base and batting smack in the middle of the lineup. 9 full seasons, 330-odd HRs, a 1,000 or so runs batted in; that is a lot of offense to replace. But with his team finishing behind Tampa Bay for the first time ever, GM JP Riccardi was probably right to save the money they would have needed to spend to keep Delgado for other purposes somewhere down the road. Nonetheless, it is certainly a shame for any team to see someone of Delgado’s talent replaced by the converted 3B Eric Hinske and Shea Hillenbrand. After strong rookie years (Hinske won ROY in 2002), the bloom has long been off the roses that were Hinske and Hillenbrand. Hillenbrand looks to be the better offensive player these days, he has not experienced the across the board drop off statistically that Hinske has seen. Hillenbrand, long criticized as a free swinger, even say some improvement to his OBP in 2004. But then you have to wonder about a guy that has been moved around so much, he is going on his 3rd team in 4 years and has earned himself a reputation as a bit of a jerk everywhere that he has landed (Carl Everett famously took him under his wing as a rookie in Boston). Hinske is much better defensively and deserves some real credit for improving from the iffy at best defender he was during his rookie campaign. Either way, neither of them is Carlos.
I’m fascinated by 2B Orlando Hudson. He is tremendous defensively, but the fact that he has been known to announce “web gem” to his teammates while the ball is actually still in play, well, that takes it to another level. How good do you have to be to do that? He is a gold glove waiting to happen. Anyway, he has also shown modest improvement with the bat over the last few years, power numbers improving slightly, using the whole field more consistently as well as showing an improved ability to get on base. There is still room for improvement though, lefties still give him fits and that great speed of his has never translated to as many SBs as it perhaps should. If he can continue his improvement in these areas he should be able to cement himself in a role at the top of the Jays order for years to come and could develop into one of the better all around options at 2B in the league. Fun, fun player to watch.
Russ Adams will get the nod at SS to start the season. Adams impressed the Jays in his late season call up, winning the job in September and putting up decent numbers in his limited opportunity (22 games). It will probably be too much to expect Adams to produce the power and on base numbers from the end of last season over the course of a full year, that production was a bit more than he has given his teams over full seasons in the minors. He also has major issues against left-handed pitching, meaning he probably won’t be much use to the Jays in the late innings. To me, he projects into a lower level platoon type middle infielder at best. John MacDonald will back up at SS, most likely contributing only as a late inning defensive replacement.
Toronto’s one major addition this off season, and it is kind of a stretch to call it that, was to bring in free agent 3B Corey Koskie. Koskie has provided decent production over the last few years, but he has also been slowed down by a cacophony of nagging injuries in that time. I guess you can look at his 25 HRs in 118 games last season and think that he could be a 35 HR type guy if he can just stay healthy. I don’t think that is terribly realistic though, if he repeats his 2004 numbers over a full season this year I think the Jays should be happy. Plus he’s Canadian, so there’s that at least.
The Jays quickly abandoned young Kevin Cash behind the plate in favor of veteran catchers Greg Zaun and Greg Myers. Zaun is the better defensive option, but doesn’t offer much at the plate. Myers, who is 38 and returning from a severely sprained ankle that forced him to miss all of 2004, offers more pop but not as much mobility behind the plate. If you could combine these two Gregs into one catcher I think you might have something, but since you can’t I’d say the Jays have to average options behind the plate. Either way, both are just place holders for young Guillermo Quiroz, designated catcher of the future that will most definitely be with the club come September and should be starting in 2006.
Outfield
Vernon Wells will come back from a disappointing 2004 season and find himself being unquestionable the best player in the field for the Jays. Last season can be dismissed partly because he battled a calf injury all season that had a pretty dramatic effect on his play. Back to full speed, I’m expecting a lot more from Wells in 2005, perhaps returning to his 30/100/.320 form of 2003. One problem Wells will have though is a distinct lack of protection in the lineup; a lot of that 2003 performance was aided by a fearsome Carlos Delgado batting behind him. This year it will be Corey Koskie batting behind him when healthy and there is a distinct possibility for Wells to get the same treatment that Brian Giles got all those years in Pittsburgh, being singled out as the guy opposing pitchers will not allow to beat them. If that happens, it could be a frustrating year for Wells and his patience at the plate will be hugely important.
Uber-prospect Alex Rios will start his first full season in RF this year. Rios has tremendous speed and is a very real threat to steal 30 bases this season. In addition, he is a excellent defender with a very strong arm that can be expected to pile up quite a few outfield assists this season. In his time with the Jays in 2004, Rios also displayed the ability to hit the ball to all fields, perhaps a benefit that the 24 year-old’s power has yet to develop. Offensively, he really reminds me of a young Nomar, same body type and same ability to cover the entire strikes zone. He probably won’t have a 2005 quite as good as Nomar’s rookie campaign (i.e. 30 HRs), but there is the very real possibility that he could develop into that type of player with time.
Rounding out the outfield, it looks like the Jays may be platooning the affable yet oft-injured Frank Catalanatto and decidedly average Reed Johnson. Catalanatto is your prototypical #2 hitter with excellent bat control and gap power. Though by no means physically gifted, his compact, line-drive spraying swing is consistent as any in baseball and as a result he is a shoe in to hit .290-.300 each year. In addition, he is one of the smarter, more studious players around, spending hours in the video room trying to perfect his swing and prepare for pitchers. In short, he’s one of those guys that has been able to squeeze every bit of performance out of his overmatched ability, enabling him to compete with guys with which he has no real business competing. That makes him an awful likeable fellow in my book. There have been rumors of Catalanatto batting anywhere from the 2 hole (where he belongs) to leading off to a spot further down in the order where he will be counted on to produce runs.
Johnson will probably spell Catalanatto on a semi-regular basis as well as give Rios the occasional day off. Johnson is probably best suited as a defensive replacement/fourth outfielder that gets maybe 8-10 ABs a week or so. He doesn’t do anything particularly well, but he won’t hurt the club in any areas either.
Prospect Gabe Gross, who has been murdering the ball thus far in spring training, is expected to start the season at AAA. Gross is quite an athlete, he quarterbacked for Auburn in his college days before dedication himself to baseball. Given his history, he is still considered rather raw, though the Jays have been impressed with his baseball instincts in the minors. He needs time to become a more consistent player, which is why the Jays want him playing everyday in AAA until there is a full time spot available in Toronto. If the injury bug hits Toronto’s outfield, he’ll be the first one called up, otherwise he probably will continue to hone his game in Syracuse until September call ups.
The Rotation
The rotation starts and ends with 2003 Cy Young Award winner Roy Halladay, who experienced a frustrating 2004 marred with injury and inconsistency. Still only 27, Halladay missed two months due to a tired shoulder, which most attribute to the fact that he pitched over 500 innings in his previous two dominating campaigns. There was no structural damage though, and while the Jays may not leave Halladay on the mound to finish as many games as they have in the past, there is little to suggest that he cannot return to his dominating form of old. Halladay features a fastball with late movement that hits the upper 90s at times as well a sharp slider and curveball combination, all of which he delivers with pinpoint accuracy when on his game. Rumor has it he is developing a changeup this spring training. He’s a top contender for the Cy Young this year in my book. And worth repeating: still only 27.
Lefty Ted Lilly is the number 2 starter, though he developed shoulder tendonitis at the beginning of spring training and most likely not to be ready for opening day. Regardless, Lilly took a step forward for the Jays last season, standing in admirable as the top pitcher with Halladay out. Lilly works his changeup off a low 90s fastball against right-handed hitters and also features a sharp over the top curve to lefties. Lack of focus has always been the knock on Lilly, another improving year like 2004 and he can put that talk to bed for good. Also, his full name is Theodore Roosevelt Lilly, which is fun, though the whole “Speak softly and carry a big stick,” thing really would work better for a batter.
David Bush has a lock on the #3 spot and hopes to build off of what was really a quite successful debut in 2004. In his 16 starts last season, Bush maintained a 3.69 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP to go with his 5-4 record on a low scoring team. That’s a good start, and while the Jays expect hitters to catch up with Bush a bit in his second campaign, they feel that he is a bright enough pitcher to make adjustments in his own right. Bush features a low 90s fastball which works well with his sharp curve and changeup combination to right-handed hitters. However, Bush never did show much confidence in that changeup against lefties, enabling them to sit on the curveball and do some damage to the 25 year old. With confidence in that changeup will come more effectiveness against lefties and that has been the major focus of his spring training this season. The result will probably determine Bush’s success in 2005, and while he might not make a quantum leap against lefties, it is a safe bet that he will improve at least a little bit and cement himself as a quality #3 pitcher.
Josh Towers and someone named Gustavo Chacin are expected to round out the rotation in 2005. Towers is the epitome of a 5th starter, a control pitcher who needs everything going right to survive 6 innings in the majors, to which his 5+ ERA and 1.50 WHIP attest. Chacin spent 4 years in the minors with little success before putting it all together last year at AA New Hampshire and than again at AAA Syracuse. He replicated that on the big stage in Toronto, albeit he only got two starts there. He’s still just a kid, 24, he’ll be a major league wild card for the Jays.
The Bullpen
Miguel Batista has recently been named the closer for the Jays; that apparently based on the short 5 save tryout he got at the end of last season. Well, he does throw in the 95 MPH range and he has never really had that third consistent pitch to make him effective as a starter, so it seems as good pick as closer than any other of which I can think. He is another wildcard for 2005, but the more you think about it the more it does make sense for the guy. Walks have always been as issue with Batista, but even that could be blamed on his inconsistent/lack of a third pitch. I’m cautiously optimistic.
Batista supplants Justin Speier as closer, though he was perhaps the most consistent arm in the bullpen last season for the Jays. In his career, Speier has been around the block a few times, pitching well some seasons, horribly others, but seemingly always with a new team (Toronto is #6 by my count). Excepting last season, consistency is not Speier’s strong suit historically and as such his role as setup man to Batista does not look to be one in which he can be expected to excel.
Jason Frasor and Kerry Lightenberg can be expected to return to the pen this season. Frasor was lights out in the first half as the Jays closer, saving 17 of 19 and looking dominant at times. But the wheels came off in the second half as he struggled to locate his pitches and as a result struggled to get anyone out at all. Lightenberg fought hip pain all season in 2004 and his numbers showed it (6.36 ERA) even though he still made 57 appearances. A healthy Lightenberg shouldn’t be that bad, I expect him to come back as a serviceable 6th and 7th inning guy this season.
After that it gets really ugly, Scot Schoeneweis is likely to be in the pen by virtue of his lefthandedness, Justin Miller, Vinny Caulk and Ryan Glynn expect to compete for the last few spots in the pen. It could turn out to be one of the worst relief squads in the league.
The Skinny
Things don’t look really good for Toronto just yet, they simply don’t have the firepower required to compete in the AL East. They have some building blocks, the first three starters should hold there own, Wells is a top notch CF, Rios and Hudson are developing nicely. With that, there financial constraint has been admirable; most clubs would have spent the $13M/year to bring Delgado back and put a better product on the field in 2004, but Ricarrdi was wise to pocket that money so he could use it to add smarter pieces to the long term puzzle.
To those building blocks the Jays should be able to add Gross as an everyday LF and Quiroz behind the plate in 2006 as well as top pitching prospects (and Tommy John recoveree) Dustin McGowan and Brandon League (League may find a spot in the bullpen in 2005 and he features a 98 MPH fastball the pen could use). As those players develop, the Jays may find better use of that Delgado money to add some depth to the bullpen or perhaps another starter at the back end of the rotation. It isn’t inconceivable that this team could compete for a wildcard spot in 2006 or 2007.
Alas, it is only 2005. Jays fans will have an OK team to watch, especially those days that Halladay takes the mound. But they’d be advised to leave early, it is probably going to be rather ugly after the 7th inning or so. I’m putting them down for 74 wins.
Next up: What looks like it could be another Rocky Mountain low in 2005.
Posted by stan at March 20, 2005 07:55 PM