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March 13, 2005
The Washington Nationals
Washington Nationals
Last Year: 5th Place (67-94)
Elected For 2005: Vinny Castilla, Cristian Guzman, Esteban Loaiza
Sent Home by the Voters: Tony Batista, Juan Rivera
Infield
There are a lot of positions that haven’t been permanently decided just yet and one of those is 1B. Nick Johnson is penciled in there for now, but that is only until he gets injured again and is out for the season. He’s missed at least part of each of the last 4 seasons with a variety of ailments ranging from a broken jaw to semi-chronic back issues, but comes into spring training this year (supposedly) with a clean bill of health. The word is that, when healthy, Johnson will give you modest power (15-20 HR), an average in the .300 range and the ability to get on base at a pretty good clip, not to mention a solid glove on the field. But that is all hypothetical, since “healthy” has never happened for Johnson.
When Johnson gets hurt, the Nats plan on moving Brad Wilkerson in from the infield to take his place. Wilkerson was the breakout player for the 2004 Expos, beefing his HR total up from an average of 20ish in the previous few years to 32. What’s more, in the second half he showed the potential to hit for a higher average and OBP than he has thus far in his career, going .274/.391. I’m really interested in watching to see if he can finally put all of these things together for a full season (along with cut down the strike outs), and given that he is just coming into his prime as a 27 year-old, I think the chances are good that he could do it. Throw in 15 or so SB and you have yourself an All-Star in the Brian Giles type mode.
The Nats went out and spent $6.2M over 2 years to sign up the 37 year-old Vinny Castilla to handle 3B this year. I didn’t like the deal much when I first heard it, but it has grown on me a bit in the meanwhile. While no one expects Castilla to approach his 2004 Coors-inflated numbers, it is not a stretch to think that he can put up roughly the same numbers as he did in Atlanta in 2002-2003. If he does that, he can be a solid 20/80/.270 guy at a pretty modest price. Still, the second year seems to be too much, Brendan Harris, acquired from the Cubs last summer, is primed to take of at 3B eventually. You could start him at the league minimum.
Jose Vidro comes back in 2005 trying to regain the form that made many think he’d be the top 2B in the game back around the turn of the century. He went 24/97/.330 that year, and though he has been good since most of his numbers have been trending in the wrong direction since, largely due to injury. The move to Washington should help that somewhat, RFK will have a more forgiving grass surface than the turf in Montreal and Puerto Rico. Add to that a bit more protection in the lineup than he’s seen in the past couple of years and I think you can expect to see Vidro’s numbers turn around and head in the other direction this year.
Cristian Guzman joins Washington to play SS in 2005, signing a $16.8M/4 Year deal this off season. That deal met with some fairly strong criticism and rightly so. He doesn’t offer much in the way of offense as is .303 OBP over the last 3 years shows. He’s got a little speed, but over that same period of time he gets caught stealing just about as much as he makes it safely (13 of 22). No power either. The Nats point to his defensive ability, he lead the league in fielding percentage for SS last season, but those defensive stats aren’t the most telling and a number of Sabrmetricians have argued that he is overrated in even that category. Bad signing, especially for a team short on money.
Behind the plate, Brian Schneider will take be entering his second season as the full time catcher. Schneider showed signs of breaking down in the second half last year, his power numbers dropped after July, but he continued to do what Washington wants him to do: provide superior defense behind the plate and help the young pitching staff along in there development. Schneider threw out a whopping 50% of base stealers last year, which is tough to top. Expect more of the same, solid defense, flashy arm and an adequate bat.
Outfield
The best move the Nats made all off season was to bring Jose Guillen into the fold at the bargain basement price of $3.5M. Acquired from Anaheim for Juan Rivera (who had a very nice second half in 2004) and Macier Izturis, Guillen is a legitimate All-Star with a tremendous arm. Not that I have any inside information or anything (though nohatnocattle’s sources MLB sources are many), but I tend to discount the run-ins Guillen had with the Angels last season. Mike Scioscia seems to me to be something of a hard ass and I think the team may have bought into its “we’re all team players here” reputation enough that the environment might not be the most accepting of players like Guillen with a more than healthy ego and attitude to match. Of course, Frank Robinson seems to be the hard ass type too, so who knows. In any event, he’s a great player adding much needed power and protection in the lineup, no one doubts that. He’s also in a contract year, which tends to straighten some guys out. Rumor has it that he even attended an anger management class this winter. All systems go for Guillen, expect another great year.
Endy Chavez is the experiment in CF. Washington wants his speed (32 SB) at the top of the lineup so they can move Wilkerson down to the 5 spot, but are worried about his ability to get on base consistently (.318 last season). In a way, he is one of the most important guys on the team. If he can handle the everyday job that will allow Wilkerson to produce more runs as well as keep Nick Johnson on the bench. If not, things kind of start to fray a bit. I don’t know, he hasn’t proven he is up to the task yet, but they are a much better team for it if he can add maybe 30 more points to his OBP this season.
The final spot in LF is earmarked for Terrmel Sledge. Sledge got plenty of playing time with the Expos in 2004 and produced mediocre results. The Nats are betting that he can build on that experience in 2005 and begin to develop into a player more in line with his 2003 AAA numbers (22/92/.324 and a .397 OBP). There is also the potential for Sledge to take over in CF if Chavez struggles.
JJ Davis, who missed much of 2004 with injuries but has a reputation as a tools guy, is a long shot to press Chavez & Sledge for playing time in the outfield.
The Rotation
It seems like a long, long time since Livan Hernandez helped lead the Florida Marlin’s to there first World Series championship. Even so, he only turned 30 (granted, 30 in Cuban pitcher years) this February and has spent the better part of the last 5 years being the most underrated pitcher in the game (with all due respect to the pre-2004 Jamie Moyer). Not only has he pitched well in that time (the exception was a sub-par 2001 campaign), he pretty much hasn’t missed a start and has time and again shown the propensity to go deep in games, never throwing fewer than 216 innings, thrice throwing 230+ and topping out at a amazing 255 innings pitched in 2004. You keep waiting and waiting for all these innings to add up, and to be fair there were periods where Hernandez threw like a tired pitcher last season, but they just never seem to catch up to him. The ability to pencil in on guy to provide your team 240 IP each season, to a certain extent regardless of the quality of those innings, is immeasurable, especially when you are considering the cash strapped club that Hernandez has played for the last two seasons. He might be the most valuable pitcher to his team in the entire game going into 2005 (Ben Sheets might argue?). This is a lot of praise for a guy who has lost more than he’s one the last 5 years, but he deserves it.
I’d put old friend Tomo Ohka in the #2 spot. He’s another guy that has quietly put together three strong seasons (3.60 ERA) while banished to Montreal since coming over from the Red Sox in return for Ugie Urbina (the only major league player to ever have the initials UUU). In fact, he may have been on his way to a breakout year, maybe one that people would have noticed, if his season didn’t ostensibly end when he broke his arm on a comebacker in June. Up until that point he’d maintained a 3.01 ERA through 12 starts, though he did get batted around in 3 starts late in the season coming back from the injury that obscured his 2004 numbers somewhat. With his development over the last few years along with the move to Washington, where people might actually attend the games, people could finally start to appreciate Ohka this year. And he still has room for improvement, his WHIP has been in the 1.30-1.40 range the last few years. If he can cut down his walks and get a bit of run support he could be a 15 game winner.
The Nationals are hoping for a healthy Tony Armas Jr. to give them innings in the 3rd spot. He’s missed most of the last two seasons due to shoulder surgeries and has lost time to other ailments as well, it’s beginning to look like the highlight of his career could be the fact that he was once traded for the great Pedro Martinez. Hope springs eternal and Armas Jr. seems to be throwing without pain in spring training thus far, but it’s best not to hold your breathe for the guy.
After Armas Jr., the rotation starts to get a little bit iffy. Estaban Loaiza, another off season signing, is anyone’s guess in the number 4 spot. He’s gone from being one of the worst every 5 days pitchers in baseball for the Blue Jays in 2002 (5.71 ERA), to a legit Cy Young candidate in 2003 (2.90 ERA), back to one what might be to worst 42 innings of pitching for the Yankees the second half of last season (8.50 ERA, .337 BA against and a eye-popping WHIP above 2!). And that doesn’t even count the playoffs.
Rounding out the rotation is young Zach Day. Like Armas Jr., Day has missed parts of the last two seasons with a variety of ailments, including major shoulder troubles. Even so, he has looked promising when on the mound. Day relies on his hard sinker to keep the ball in the park and take advantage of the double play. Much like fellow sinkerballer Brandon Webb, Day has suffered from control problems as big league hitters have learned to lay off his main weapon early and then taking advantage of Day in favorable counts. He’ll need to make improvements here to be effective over the course of 2005.
The Bullpen
Chad Cordero will return to his role as the main closer in 2005, though Frank Robinson has indicated that he may use Luis Ayala to close some games in an effort to take some of the pressure off the 22-year-old. Cordero was inconsistent at times last year, but was impressive given his age and lack of seasoning. Not a fireballer, he spots his fastball in an effort to set up his out pitch, a nasty slider. If there is one area to criticize it is that Cordero is too often up in the zone with his fastball and he doesn’t have the mustard on that pitch to get away with it. The result is that he gives up his share of HRs, not a good trait in a stopper.
Ayala will be there to take over for Cordero should he falter, but expects to be the primary set up man if that doesn’t happen. Ayala has quietly been on of the better set up guys in both seasons since being promoted to the majors, posting an ERA below 3.00 each season. In addition, he’s shown signs of improvement, most notably improving against left-handed batters last season after struggling the year before. Ayala pitches with control and poise and his success will be key to the prospects of the Nats pen this year.
Jon Rauch and Dan Patterson, both hoping to nab a spot in the rotation, will probably fall into the pen. Rauch had mixed success as a starter in Chicago, put performed very well out of the pen for Montreal late last season. He projects as an average arm in the 6th and 7th inning this year. Patterson, who by at least Peter Gammon’s take is back to the form that made him a valuable piece of the puzzle in Arizona in 2002, will probably give the Nats about the same. Nothing special, but not terrible either.
Claudio Vargas and TJ Tucker will also chip in as right-handers; Joey Eischen and Joe Horgan will do the same as left-handers. They are all bit players at best at this point, the Nats will need at least one of this group to step up and take some pressure and innings off of the rest of the pen.
The Skinny
I like this team, but they are extremely thin going into 2005, as you might expect given the payroll constraints they’ve operated under. What they really need is an ownership change that will allow them to add a few more pieces. Chavez is a big key, if he develops into a solid lead it will allow the Nats to be a much better team and give them at least a little depth when the eventually need to deal with injuries over the season. Chavez, Vidro, Guillen, Castilla, Wilkerson is a solid enough lineup to score some runs and stay competitive.
Other than that, it will come down to the health of the pitching staff. The rotation is thin even after penciling Hernandez in for 240 IP and losing one or two of the projected starters would be something they don’t have the resources to deal with this just yet. Even if Patterson or Rauch or even Vargas could step in to help out, the bullpen wouldn’t be able to close out enough close games to stay competitive. Mike Hinckley and Clint Everts are the top pitching prospects in a minor league system that has been ravaged by lack of funds over the last 5 years, but it is perhaps too much to expect that either could make a significant contribution to the 2005 season (Everts is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery).
But the people of Washington will have a fun team to watch the first year, even if they are not playoff bound. And frankly I think they’d be happy with a boring team to watch after being teamless over the last 20 years. Put them down for 77 wins.
Next up: Laverne & Shirley’s hometown team.
Posted by stan at March 13, 2005 04:57 PM