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March 06, 2005
The Seattle Mariners
Seattle Mariners
Last Year: 4th Place (63-99)
Welcome Aboard: Adrian Beltre, Richie Sexson, Pokey Reese, Aaron Sele
Bon Voyage: Jolbie Cabrera, Edgar Martinez
Infield
So what do you do when your team drops from 110+ wins to 63 in the matter of three seasons? You take some chances and sign some sluggers in the hopes that it will placate the fans. Even if it probably isn’t the best use of the clubs money. Seattle’s first poke at this strategy came with the signing of Richie Sexson, who missed most of last season with the Diamondbacks because of shoulder trouble. Sexson is what he is, a free swinging guy with incredible power and an incredible propensity to strike out. While he has made some progress in cutting down the strike outs, what this usually means is that Sexson puts up big numbers, but usually not against quality pitching. That makes him a very nice player for a fourth place team and makes it understandable that no team in contention has ever expressed much interest in him. In Sexson’s defense, he seems healthy so far through spring training, and except for last season has had a been a very durable and very consistent player. Expect 40 HRs, but not many in big spots.
At the other corner of the diamond, the Mariners brought in last years NL HR champ, Adrian Beltre, in the second biggest signing of the off season ($65M/5 years). There are three explanations that I can think of for last season’s metamorphosis: the still only 26-year-old is finally coming into his own physically and mentally; the guy who rightly or wrongly has been knocked for having a terrible attitude decided to care because his contract was up at the end of the season; or, well, chemical enhancement. If I were the Mariners, I wouldn’t have been sure enough that first reason was the accurate one to give him that kind of contract. But I’m not, and if Seattle is right then they have a very young, very good player at the 3B for the next 5 years. But I’m not sure if that high-risk-high-reward strategy is the best answer for a team that has a lot of holes to fill.
Speaking of chemical enhancement, Bret Boone will be back as the teams starting 2B. The rumors had swirled about Boone a lot earlier than his mention in Jose Canseco’s new book. His drop off in 2004 was fodder for a lot of jokes, but he also was playing with a couple of nagging injuries last season in a wretched lineup and he was starting to look a little old (36 this year). With all those factors, it’s hard to know what to expect from Boone this year or really any year from now on. The day’s of 30+ HRs/.330 averages are gone I think, but he could respond positively to the new support in the lineup and put up solid seasons for the next few years. A 2B that goes 20/85/.285 and plays stellar defense is nothing to sniff at, after all.
And then there is old friend Pokey Reese as SS. The fans of Seattle will have to put up with all of the pink jerseys with “Pokey” scrawled on the back. They’ll get to make the jokes with friends when they see a guy walking down the street with a “Pokey” jersey. Did his girlfriend buy it for him and he’s just placating her? I hope his girlfriend bought it for him, the poor soul. Anyway, there isn’t much to discuss with Pokey, he’s all corn rows and leather; the pitchers will love him. And there is some hope offensively, the big field in Seattle might be perfect for him if he can slash some balls into the corners and alleys he’ll be standing on 3B more often than not. Regardless, everyone likes a guy named Pokey.
Behind the plate, Miguel Olivo expects to get the bulk of the time, with veteran Dan Wilson backing him up. Olivo, who came over from the White Sox in the deadline deal that landed them Freddy Garcia, may be a future All-Star with the potential to hit 20 HRs and even swipe 10 or so bases a year. But he hasn’t reached that potential yet, there are questions about his defense (but not his canon arm) and his ability to handle a pitching staff. Being under the wing of Wilson is the prefect remedy for these shortcomings, those are the traits that have kept Wilson on a major league roster for the better part of the last 15 years despite his limitations with the bat. Expect Olivo to succeed where Ben Davis failed.
The primary DH will be one of the more unsung guys around, Raul Ibanez. A career spent playing in Kansas City and Seattle will do that to a guy, I guess. He is good for 20 HR/80 RBI every year, and those numbers could improve now that he is a part of a stronger lineup.
Outfield
Ichiro. Boy, there’s not a player in baseball not named Derek Jeter that I dislike more than this guy. He is obviously a talented guy, but could a player (again, not named Jeter) possibly be more overrated? I guess it’s a feat to break a 70 year-old record, but George Sisler wasn’t dropping down bunts with a man on second in the ninth inning of a tie game knowing he had Bucky Jacobson batting behind him. What is he, the Japanese Wade Boggs? This can’t go over well with the other players, even on a team that is 40 games back, the supposed best player on the team, suppose to be one of best players in the game, bunting with a game on the line. I don’t think Sisler got a quarter of his hits by beating out dribblers to the left side of the infield. Maybe he’s the Japanese Alex Sanchez. He’s a tremendous defensive player, obviously fast enough to put some pressure on a defense, but lets get a hold of ourselves here, he wasn’t in the top 50 for OPS last season. FIFTHY! Kevin Mench? Better OPS than Ichiro. Eli Marrero? Better OPS than Ichiro. Mike Lamb and John Mabry? Same OPS as Ichiro. Mike Lamb! The year he won the MVP award his numbers didn’t belong in the same conversation as, speaking of chemical enhancement, Jason Giambi, but hey, he’s got that cool Madonna thing going on with his last name so, lets vote for him baseball writers! What is he, the Japanese University of Michigan Law School? And if I have to here one more local sportscaster on the baseball package talk about how he could hit 40 HRs if he wanted to I may have to jump out the window. Ichiro.
Calming down a bit, Randy Winn will be moving from center to left field this year. In contrast to Ichiro, it is hard not to like Winn as a player. He’s never going to draw much attention to himself with his game, but he consistently puts up solid numbers in all areas of the game. He’ll give you 15 HRs, 85 RBI, score 85 runs, swipe 20 bases and perform more than admirably in the field, very few mental mistakes. He’s a good supporting cast type guy to have on a team and perhaps the very definition of a guy who, while never to be confused with a hall of famer, had a very nice career for himself. I don’t know why, but these are the type of guys that fascinate me. 30 years for now, Randy Winn’s name is going to come up in conversation and people are going to say, “Oh yeah, remember Randy Winn? He had a nice little career.”
Winn is moving to center to make way for uber-prospect Jeremy Reed, one of the early favorites for ROY. He also came over from Chicago in the Freddy Garcia deal and was very impressive in his 18 game stint with the big club, hitting .397, but with not much power. The power should come, but he has shown himself to be adept in getting on base at all levels and should continue to do so in 2005. I think of him as a supped-up version of Kevin Youkilis with speed right now and a chance to develop into much more in the coming years.
The Rotation
It doesn’t seem like that long ago that the Mariners looked set in this department for years to come. Freddy Garcia was just reaching his prime, Jamie Moyer still wasn’t aging, young arms like Meche and Soriano and Pineiro were on the way and Kaz Sasaki was force at the end of games. Things didn’t work out too well, and to compound things Seattle traded number one Freddy Garcia and spent all of there off season money at the corner infield spots. I guess we’ll at least be able to determine if the staff’s sub-par performance last year was because of terrible run support and terrible luck or if the rotation just isn’t that good.
It is never a good sign when your team’s top starter is 42 years-old, but that seems to be the case here. Moyer was a solid middle of the rotation guy up through the 2003 season, he won 13+ games every year since 1997 (including 20 in 2001) with a sub 4.00 ERA in all but one of those years. He always gave up a lot of HRs as a soft tosser, but inexplicably seemed to keep the best hitting teams in the game off balance with an panoply of off speed pitchers and different arm angles. Then came 2004, where everyone seemed to finally catch up to one of the winningest pitchers of the last decade; he gave up a whopping 44 HRs. So, is it the end of Jamie Moyer? I say no. Moyer actually started 2004 fairly strong, with an ERA in the 3.40 range through June. I think the problem was mechanics, and when you throw an 80 MPH fastball small mechanical problems produce horrendous numbers. But there is no physical reasons why Moyer can’t keep on keeping on and he’s shown the ability to out think hitters pretty consistently for the last 10 years. I say he’ll be back to old form this year, maybe fewer IP, but he’ll take advantage of that big home field and the upgraded defense and continue to frustrate all those overly-aggressive sluggers out there.
Joel Pineiro probably has the best stuff in the rotation and he was poised to take over the role of staff ace until everything went wrong in 2004. He started 1-8 and was hurt by a lack of defense, a lack of run support and then finally a shoulder injury that mercifully ended his season in July. This spring he still isn’t 100%, but he’s expected to be ready for the start of the season. Like everyone else, he’ll take advantage of the new defense this year and should be expected to be back to his hard throwing good control self this season. If all goes well, he should be a candidate to make the leap to #1 starter status in 2006.
The oft-injured Gil Meche is next in the rotation, coming off a year that started horribly, included a trip back to the minors and then finally ended with a glimmer of hope in which he finished the season 6-2 with a sub 4.00 ERA. That seems always to be the case with Meche, glimmers of hope and signs of promise followed by setback after setback. 2005 is anyone’s guess, the standard deviation on this guy’s performance is off the charts.
The last two spots will be divvyed up between young Bobby Mastrich, young Cha Seung Baek and old Ryan Franklin. The first two showed some promise last season, Mastrich especially, and are probably the best candidates for the job. Mastrich is a relatively hard throwing, no nonsense type, there has been talk of him having a future as a closer at some point. Baek, well, I think he is Korean and know he is young. Aaron Sele will be skulking around somewhere in the mix for a spot too.
Last note, keep your eyes peeled for the crown jewel of the minor league system, Felix Hernandez. Even at only 18, we may see him as a September call up; he's got three pitches that are close to major league ready as he enters spring training this year. If he does make it this year, expect the Mariners to be incredibly cautious with his young arm.
The Bullpen
The affable and not-so-everyday Eddie Guardado is back for a second go as the Mariner’s closer. He had a rough year in 2004, suffering through shoulder and knee injuries that contributed to his 7 blown saves in only 41 appearances. But his underlying numbers were still strong, a sub 3.00 ERA, a sub 1.00 WHIP and a sub .200 BA against. He spent the off season trying to tweak his mechanics to improve control and take some of the pressure off his knees which can be a tough transition, especially for an older guy that has gotten use to throwing a certain way. He should be adequate.
Shigi Hasagawa and JJ Putz also return in the pen. Both players have had some limited success as closers, Shigi in 2003 and Putz last season. Look for Putz to fill in as closer if something happens to Eddie and Hasagawa to post numbers more representative of his 2003 season than of 2004. Both guys are very good options in the 7th and 8th innings.
The rest of the bullpen is less well defined. The journeyman Ron Villone will pitch in long relief, there are worse options and a selection of unproven guys or guys coming off injuries – George Sherrill, Julio Mateo, hard-throwing lefty Matt Thorton (another future closer?) – will be swapped in and out of the pen. Rafael Soriano, one of my favorite prospects to keep tabs on the last 2 or 3 years, could be back from Tommy John surgery in July, which would be a very nice boost for the pen. All in all though, I expect this group to be just a little bit better than average.
The Skinny
I don’t at all like how they spent there money in the off season, they desperately needed a starting pitcher like Derek Lowe or Odalis Perez to stabilize the rotation, but I think this team can be much better than last year and make a run at the playoffs if things go right. Ichiro and Winn will get on base and Boone, Beltre and Sexson will drive them in quite a bit. In addition to the run support, the defense should be tremendous. Reese, Boone, Beltre, Ichiro and Winn are all gold-glove caliber defenders. And they can’t possibly suffer as many injuries as they did in 2004.
That said, the rotation is still a major question mark. Moyer is 42, Pineiro and Meche are coming back from rough campaigns, Madstritch and the 5th starter are unproven and there isn’t much depth beyond these guys; 10 starts for Ron Villone or Aaron Sele will not be a good sign. If a couple of these guys blow up in 2005, it won’t matter how much the defense has improved. Yet this group still has the potential to be above average and the bullpen has the potential to be downright good. They could hang around and give the Angels and Rangers some trouble, but in the end I think they’ll fall just shy of making the playoffs.
Last though, this is one of the few teams around in the last couple of years to basically have an everyday player at each position 1 thru 9. Not one platoon or positional battle going into the season. A throwback, these Mariners of Seattle.
Put them down for 88 wins.
Up Next: The new squad in the nation's capital.
Posted by stan at March 6, 2005 06:41 PM