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March 15, 2005
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers
Last Year: 5th Place (68-93)
New on Tap: Carlos Lee, Damian Miller, Jose Capellan
Recycled: Danny Kolb, Scott Posednik, Craig Counsell
Infield
Lyle Overbay will start the season as the clubs 1B, with everyone hoping to see more of the first half 2004 Overbay (.944 OPS) than the second half version (.764 OPS). Not your prototypical slugging 1B, he probably tops out at 25 HRs, but he has enough pop to get the ball into the alleys as evidenced by his 53 doubles last year. He also should about be coming into his prime as a hitter, this will be his third full year in the majors and he starts the season at 28. All these things point to a solid 2005 for Overbay, though it is possible that he finishes the season with a different position or team to make room for the clubs top slugging prospect, Prince Fielder.
Cecil’s boy should start the season at AAA and at 21 has certainly progressed rapidly through the system thus far. A strong performance by Overbay will allow Fielder some additional time to develop further in the minors, but given the fact that he is perhaps the top hitting prospect of any team already, my guess is that you’ll see him with the big club before the year is out. The one knock on Fielder is that he definitely inherited his physique from his old man, which translates into a diminished ability in the field and a greater chance of injury. But so far neither have proved to be an issue.
Pretty much the same situation at 2B this year, with Junior Spivey starting the year with the big club, but pretty much just holding the position until prospect Rickie Weeks is ready to step in and play. Spivey made a splash as a rookie for the Diamondbacks back in 2002, but pitchers seem to figure him out the second time around and his numbers have diminished to barely serviceable in the two years since. Weeks, on the other hand, was the #2 overall pick in the 2003 draft and progressed quickly through the minor league system until taking a step back in AA last season. Had that not happened, Weeks might be penciled in to start this season. Regardless, he seemed to find his stroke again in the Arizona Fall League and put up strong numbers across the board. Should Spivey get off to a slow start and Weeks continue his hot hitting this April in AAA, Weeks very well could be with the big club by the All-Star break.
Continuing with the youth movement, rookie JJ Hardy is expected to take the reigns at SS this season and is a potential ROY. After another strong start in AAA last season, Hardy missed much of the season due to injury. He’s healthy now and the Brewers think he has the maturity to adjust to the majors regardless of the fact that he hasn’t played much ball in the last year. In fact, the Brewers had contemplated giving him the job last season and may have if the club hadn’t obtained Craig Counsell via trade. Hardy has hit consistently in the minors showing good plate discipline and has begun to develop mid-range power as he moved up the ladder. In addition, he is rather polished defensively for a 22 year old, so even if his bat is slow to develop he has something to offer the Brewers.
Big Russ Branyan and Wes Helms are in a fight for 3B duties and, the good Lord willing, Helms will get the job over the all-or-nothing Branyan. Injuries ruined much of Helms’ 2004 campaign, but he did put up somewhat respectable numbers as the Brewers full-time 3B in 2003, going 27/63/.261. Branyan, on the other hand, has never batted above .238 in his career and has struck out in over 40% of his major league ABs. To put that in prospective, if the Brewers made the mistake of getting Branyan 550 ABs this season, he could be expected to whiff 220 times. You’d probably get 30 HRs to go with that as well, kind of Steve Balboniesque performance. Jeff Cirillo lurks in the 3B mix as well.
The Brewers signed Damian Miller the off season to handle the catching duties. While his offensive numbers have improved slightly over the years, Milwaukee is clearly looking for someone that will provide guidance to some of their young players and help them continue to develop. He should be able to provide that, as well as some occasional pop here and there. Chad Moeller, another defensive backstop, will spell Miller when he needs it.
Outfield
The main off season addition for Milwaukee was to bring left fielder Carlos Lee in from Chicago in exchange for Scott Podsednik and Luis Vizcaino. Lee is kind of like a good mutual fund, he consistent over the long term of a season, but his production fluctuates quite a bit on a week to week basis. While he doesn’t offer much in the way of defense’s safely a 30/100/.290 guy, but he slumps for long periods of time and then comes out of that funk to go on impressive tears. One wonders what kind of numbers he could produce if he could eliminate one or two of those funks each season – it could catapult him into one of the best outfielders in the league.
In right field, Geoff Jenkins is pretty similar to Lee, though a notch below in overall ability and leaps and bounds better in the field. For Jenkins, it hasn’t been slumps so much as injuries that have kept him from putting up top numbers in the outfield. Last season was the first in a while that he was healthy for the most part, he played in a career high 157 games, and even though his strike outs seem to continue to rise you can expect good if not excellent numbers from Jenkins.
In center field, Brady Clark will be the everyday answer. Clark is a Randy Winn or Mark Kotsay type player, he does everything OK but nothing spectacularly. Maybe he is a notch below those guys. He’d be a great fourth outfielder on one of the power house teams, but he will be adequate as an everyday guy I think.
Dave Krynzel and Corey Hart will fill in if anyone of the starters go down. Krynzel offers impressive speed and Hart offers quite a bit of power, but the Brewers will be in trouble if either are called on to play a significant amount.
The Rotation
The rotation starts and stops with Ben Sheets, who made the leap from a very good pitcher to a great one last season. He signed a $6M/1 year deal this off season, but it will be interesting to see if the Brewers will be able to lock him up in a long term deal or if he will be lost to free agency (in 2006, he is arbitration eligible after this season). Sheets has given his team at least 220 IP the last three season and dominated in 2004 despite battling through back problems that he had surgery to alleviate this off season. Using his 95+ MPH fastball, a sharp curve and improved changeup, Sheets struck out 10 batters per 9 IP and showed marked improvement by reducing his WHIP below 1.00 and handling left-handed hitting better than in the past. The only thing standing in his way from making a run at the 2005 Cy Young award is the anemic performance of the rest of his team. Sheets could be the big prize at the trade deadline this summer or next if the Brewers can’t work out a contract soon.
He’s light years away from Sheets, but Doug Davis provides the Brewers with a very serviceable #2 starter. In fact, he’s done nothing but pitch well since he came over from Toronto, posting outstanding numbers in the second half of 2003 and providing solid outings for the entire 2004 season (3.39 ERA). He doesn’t offer much in the way of stuff, he gets by mainly on a cut fastball and a slow, slower and slowest curveball from multiple angles that keeps the heavy bats off balance. With a bit of run support, Davis is capable of picking up 15 or so wins. No bets on whether he’ll get that support, but if not I think it is safe to say he will have another strong if unrecognized season.
Victor Santos is slotted as the #3 starter this year. After spending most of his career in the bullpen, Santos got his first shot at the rotation and pitched successfully in the first half of the year, going 8-3 before the break. Looking at the numbers a little deeper though, K/BB just barely over 2, WHIP pushing 1.40, it really looks like a lot of that fast start was good fortune. I say this with the benefit of hindsight of course, Santos got shelled in the second half with a 6.00 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP. Santos is a relatively soft throwing control pitcher without great control, he has to really be on to be effective. I’d like him as a #5 man perhaps.
Ben Hendrickson is #4, he got beat around pretty good as a starter for the big club last season. That’s OK though, he is just 24 this year and when he wasn’t getting his rough in Milwaukee he was toying with AAA hitters, going 11-3 with a 2.12 ERA in Indianapolis. He’s done pretty much the same amount of damage at every stop but Milwaukee so far, so it is more of a matter of when and how fast that if Hendrickson will develop into a solid major league starter. His curveball reminds me of the other Ben on the staff.
Chris Capuano should get the #5 spot, barring more injuries. He was decent in his first full season as a starter last year, but nagging injuries and a lack of control kept him from making a real contribution to the team. A fastball, slider, changeup pitcher, Capuano did pile up nearly 9K/9IP, so he has enough movement and pop to full major leaguers. He should continue to develop, if he can keep from consistently getting behind in the count he could be a very nice #5.
There is an outside chance that Dominican flamethrower Jose Capellan could start the year in the rotation. Capellan was the prize from the Atlanta system in return for closer Danny Kolb and dominated at three minor league levels in 2004. There is some concern that he moved throw the minors too quickly and that he was able to rely too much on his 97-98 MPH fastball and as a result hasn’t fully developed his breaking pitches. As a result, he’ll probably at least start the season in the pen and though the Brewers insist otherwise, the kid has future closer written all over him.
The Bullpen
Mike Adams is expected to closer for Milwaukee, but I have to be honest, I have no independent information that allows me to confirm that this man actually exists, let alone will be a quality stopper. Chalk that up to baseball economics 2005, when you are short on cash the first place to cut among the everyday players is with established closers (which is at least evidence of some fiscal sanity in Milwaukee, which you can’t say about some other teams). In any event, he is a hard thrower, touches 95 with his fastball and has a good slider, all of which seem good traits for a closer. If he does indeed exist.
Luis Vizcaino, last year’s setup man, was shipped off to Chicago as part of the deal that brought Carlos Lee to LF, leaving a bit of a hole in the bullpen. Capellan could fit into this spot, but look for the rejuvenated Ricky Bottalico to get the bulk of the time, at least initially. Best know for his frequent and spectacular emulations on the mound as a closer for the Phillies in the late 90s, he actually had a very nice season pitching in relief for the Mets in 2004. He’s a bargain signing, to be sure, but he could provide a steady if not spectacular late innings bridge to Adams.
After that, well, things start getting real thin real fast. Justin Lehr is a bit of as soft tosser who had a lot of success as a minor league closer, but that didn’t translate in his call up to Oakland last year. Brooks Keischnick will provide some decent innings and serve again as a much needed bat off the bench for Milwaukee (he also provides a fun name for announcers to say, which is important on a bad team like this). Jorge de la Rosa throws hard but has yet to harness that power. Wes Obermuller exists in that limbo between long relief and the 5th starter (call it Villoneville). It looks grim.
The Skinny
Yes, yes it does look grim, how this team was over .500 in the first half of last season I'll never understand. I like the addition of Lee in the outfield; that was a definite steal in exchange for Posednik and Vizcaino. Sheets will be great every 5th day, Davis might be very good every 5th day, but after that it’s a crapshoot. When Milwaukee fans aren’t admiring Sheets, I expect they’ll spend most of there time tracking the development of the rookie middle infielders, hoping Capellan and Hendrickson can harness there stuff and waiting for Cecil’s boy to arrive. That and eat a couple of bratwurst and throw down a couple of Shotz brews with the Big Ragu.
Next up: We’re the only team in Canada now, eh?
Posted by stan at March 15, 2005 11:04 PM