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March 28, 2005
True Story
The guy in the cube next to me is talking about his pet chickens. Rosie, Gurtrude and Isadora (she's sick). Same guy also mentioned earlier that he'd like to comeback in his next life as a river otter.
I have nothing to add to these statements.
Posted by stan at 05:36 PM
March 23, 2005
Still More Cranes
More cranes here, here and here, proving once again that nohatnocattle.com is your #1 internet resource for crane pictures! Take that cranes.com!
Posted by stan at 10:48 AM
March 22, 2005
Texas Oaks
Posted by stan at 01:15 PM
March 21, 2005
Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies
Last Year: 4th Place (68-94)
New to the Altitude: Dustin Mohr, Desi Relaford, Darren Oliver
Back at Sea Level: Jeremy Burnitz, Vinny Castilla, Royce Clayton, Shawn Estes, Denny Neagle
Infield
Poor Todd Helton. One of the premier players in baseball, the best player in the history of the franchise, he is really the only thing worth seeing in Colorado (beside the mountains and buffalo). His numbers, of course altitude-aided, are spectacular. .345/31/107 averages over the last three seasons, to go with a .452 OBP and a 1.061 OPS over that same period. But even away from Coors field his OPS was .969 over the last two years, nothing to sniff at. Defensively, he won his third Gold Glove in 2004, displaying the type of athleticism you’d expect from Peyton Manning’s backup quarterback at Tennessee. He’ll represent Colorado in the All-Star game again this year, he’ll be in the running for the batting title again, he’ll be one of the top run producers in the game again, but he may prove to be the only bright light in what could be a brutal year in the mountains.
Youngster Aaron Miles is expected to start a 2B for the Rockies in 2004. A bit old to be considered a prospect anymore, the 28 year old finally made it to the show last season. Miles has little power, he is more of a slashing singles type hitter. Even so, he has shown little prowess for getting on base in his long minor league career and as a result he really has very little business hitting towards the top of any major league lineup. But he’ll most likely leadoff for the Rockies.
SS Clint Barmes is pretty similar to Miles, though he has displayed a bit more power in the minors, including 16 HR in the PCL last season. He projects to around a .300 hitter with 12-15 HR, with the help of Coors Field, and does have a little bit of speed that could be helpful when balls find there way into the gap or corner. Defensively, Barmes is average at best.
Garrett Atkins will start at 3B for the Rockies after years of being the next big hitting prospect in the system. Atkins has consistently put up impressive numbers as AAA Colorado Springs, only to fall flat during irregular duty with the big club. But he is still only 25, so chances are that, given regular at bats with the major league club, he can produce. 25/85/.310 is not at all far fetched for Atkins.
JD Closser looks to be the starter behind the plate this year for the Rockies. The 25 year old prospect has displayed power from both sides of the plate as well as the ability to hit for average, making him one of the top catching prospects in all of baseball. The inverse of so many other catchers, the knock on Closser is his defense and pitch calling. Veteran Todd Greene will back him up to provide just those commodities as well as to serve as a tutor to the young catcher. Closser should continue his progression this season and, should the defense come along under the tutelage or Greene, could become one of the top catchers in the league over the next 10 years.
Outfield
Preston Wilson hopes to return to CF this season, but given the injuries that slowed him down last year and have plagued his career, it seems more than optimistic to expect the spectacular numbers he put up in 2003. In addition to that, the knee injuries look to have sapped Wilson’s base stealing ability and there is a very real concern as to whether he will be able to patrol Coors Fields immense center field effectively. The Rocks will most likely treat Wilson with kid gloves this season, resting him regularly and pulling him from the lineup on the first hint of trouble with his knees. In those cases, look for the speedy though little else prospect Choo Freeman to fill in as center fielder.
Dustin Mohr should finally see consistent playing time in RF. Mohr began to put it together in the second half for San Francisco in 2004, hitting for average and getting on base at a consistent clip. The one thing he didn’t show much of, however, was power, with only 7 HR in all of 2004. That number should improve as he moves to Coors, but Mohr isn’t anything better than an average 4th outfielder; it is not a good sign that he is expected to get 140 starts this year. Rookie Brad Hawpe, built in the all or nothing Big Russ Branyan mode, will spell Mohr from time to time.
In left, Matt Holliday and Jorge Piedra are expected to platoon. Holliday was one of the more dramatic cases of Jekyll and Hyde at and away from Coors field last season, as evidenced by his 1.009/.654 home/away OPS splits of 2004. Piedra is one of the Rockies top prospects that has made very quick work of every minor league assignment he’s been given so far. The smart thing here would be to either let Piedra play everyday for the big club of ship him off to Colorado Springs where he can play everyday, but the Rockies outfield looks to be just plain too thin to do even that. I’d expect Piedra to be playing everyday by the second half, if not sooner.
The Rotation
Why bother?
The Bullpen
See Rotation.
The Skinny
This looks to be a painful campaign coming up for the Rockies, as they hit bottom while trying to figure out just how a team can compete when playing there home games in such a dramatically different environment than every other team. That they have gotten to the point of discussing the idea of installing hyperbaric chambers at Coors Field to simulate sea level conditions tells you just how closer Colorado’s management is to solving this conundrum. I’m not sure if any team can ever seriously compete under those conditions save spending all your money on big bats and bringing in marginal at best pitchers that can at best give you 200 IP a season, regardless of the other stats. That, obviously, flies in the face of normal baseball thinking. In any event, Rockies fans will get to see some more offense this year. I’ve got them down for 60 wins this year and I’m trying to be optimistic.
Next up: Baseball in Tampa Bay, it’s wheel chair accessible!
Posted by stan at 06:24 PM
Minute Maid Park
We also poked around the Stadium Formerly Known as Enron this weekend.
Posted by stan at 04:31 PM
March 20, 2005
Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays
Last Year: 5th Place (67-94)
New Chicks: Corey Koskie, Shea Hillenbrand, Scot Schoeneweis
Flown From the Coop: Carlos Delgado, Kevin Cash
Infield
This will be the first time in the last 10 years that the Jays didn’t enter spring training with the great Carlos Delgado firmly entrenched at first base and batting smack in the middle of the lineup. 9 full seasons, 330-odd HRs, a 1,000 or so runs batted in; that is a lot of offense to replace. But with his team finishing behind Tampa Bay for the first time ever, GM JP Riccardi was probably right to save the money they would have needed to spend to keep Delgado for other purposes somewhere down the road. Nonetheless, it is certainly a shame for any team to see someone of Delgado’s talent replaced by the converted 3B Eric Hinske and Shea Hillenbrand. After strong rookie years (Hinske won ROY in 2002), the bloom has long been off the roses that were Hinske and Hillenbrand. Hillenbrand looks to be the better offensive player these days, he has not experienced the across the board drop off statistically that Hinske has seen. Hillenbrand, long criticized as a free swinger, even say some improvement to his OBP in 2004. But then you have to wonder about a guy that has been moved around so much, he is going on his 3rd team in 4 years and has earned himself a reputation as a bit of a jerk everywhere that he has landed (Carl Everett famously took him under his wing as a rookie in Boston). Hinske is much better defensively and deserves some real credit for improving from the iffy at best defender he was during his rookie campaign. Either way, neither of them is Carlos.
I’m fascinated by 2B Orlando Hudson. He is tremendous defensively, but the fact that he has been known to announce “web gem” to his teammates while the ball is actually still in play, well, that takes it to another level. How good do you have to be to do that? He is a gold glove waiting to happen. Anyway, he has also shown modest improvement with the bat over the last few years, power numbers improving slightly, using the whole field more consistently as well as showing an improved ability to get on base. There is still room for improvement though, lefties still give him fits and that great speed of his has never translated to as many SBs as it perhaps should. If he can continue his improvement in these areas he should be able to cement himself in a role at the top of the Jays order for years to come and could develop into one of the better all around options at 2B in the league. Fun, fun player to watch.
Russ Adams will get the nod at SS to start the season. Adams impressed the Jays in his late season call up, winning the job in September and putting up decent numbers in his limited opportunity (22 games). It will probably be too much to expect Adams to produce the power and on base numbers from the end of last season over the course of a full year, that production was a bit more than he has given his teams over full seasons in the minors. He also has major issues against left-handed pitching, meaning he probably won’t be much use to the Jays in the late innings. To me, he projects into a lower level platoon type middle infielder at best. John MacDonald will back up at SS, most likely contributing only as a late inning defensive replacement.
Toronto’s one major addition this off season, and it is kind of a stretch to call it that, was to bring in free agent 3B Corey Koskie. Koskie has provided decent production over the last few years, but he has also been slowed down by a cacophony of nagging injuries in that time. I guess you can look at his 25 HRs in 118 games last season and think that he could be a 35 HR type guy if he can just stay healthy. I don’t think that is terribly realistic though, if he repeats his 2004 numbers over a full season this year I think the Jays should be happy. Plus he’s Canadian, so there’s that at least.
The Jays quickly abandoned young Kevin Cash behind the plate in favor of veteran catchers Greg Zaun and Greg Myers. Zaun is the better defensive option, but doesn’t offer much at the plate. Myers, who is 38 and returning from a severely sprained ankle that forced him to miss all of 2004, offers more pop but not as much mobility behind the plate. If you could combine these two Gregs into one catcher I think you might have something, but since you can’t I’d say the Jays have to average options behind the plate. Either way, both are just place holders for young Guillermo Quiroz, designated catcher of the future that will most definitely be with the club come September and should be starting in 2006.
Outfield
Vernon Wells will come back from a disappointing 2004 season and find himself being unquestionable the best player in the field for the Jays. Last season can be dismissed partly because he battled a calf injury all season that had a pretty dramatic effect on his play. Back to full speed, I’m expecting a lot more from Wells in 2005, perhaps returning to his 30/100/.320 form of 2003. One problem Wells will have though is a distinct lack of protection in the lineup; a lot of that 2003 performance was aided by a fearsome Carlos Delgado batting behind him. This year it will be Corey Koskie batting behind him when healthy and there is a distinct possibility for Wells to get the same treatment that Brian Giles got all those years in Pittsburgh, being singled out as the guy opposing pitchers will not allow to beat them. If that happens, it could be a frustrating year for Wells and his patience at the plate will be hugely important.
Uber-prospect Alex Rios will start his first full season in RF this year. Rios has tremendous speed and is a very real threat to steal 30 bases this season. In addition, he is a excellent defender with a very strong arm that can be expected to pile up quite a few outfield assists this season. In his time with the Jays in 2004, Rios also displayed the ability to hit the ball to all fields, perhaps a benefit that the 24 year-old’s power has yet to develop. Offensively, he really reminds me of a young Nomar, same body type and same ability to cover the entire strikes zone. He probably won’t have a 2005 quite as good as Nomar’s rookie campaign (i.e. 30 HRs), but there is the very real possibility that he could develop into that type of player with time.
Rounding out the outfield, it looks like the Jays may be platooning the affable yet oft-injured Frank Catalanatto and decidedly average Reed Johnson. Catalanatto is your prototypical #2 hitter with excellent bat control and gap power. Though by no means physically gifted, his compact, line-drive spraying swing is consistent as any in baseball and as a result he is a shoe in to hit .290-.300 each year. In addition, he is one of the smarter, more studious players around, spending hours in the video room trying to perfect his swing and prepare for pitchers. In short, he’s one of those guys that has been able to squeeze every bit of performance out of his overmatched ability, enabling him to compete with guys with which he has no real business competing. That makes him an awful likeable fellow in my book. There have been rumors of Catalanatto batting anywhere from the 2 hole (where he belongs) to leading off to a spot further down in the order where he will be counted on to produce runs.
Johnson will probably spell Catalanatto on a semi-regular basis as well as give Rios the occasional day off. Johnson is probably best suited as a defensive replacement/fourth outfielder that gets maybe 8-10 ABs a week or so. He doesn’t do anything particularly well, but he won’t hurt the club in any areas either.
Prospect Gabe Gross, who has been murdering the ball thus far in spring training, is expected to start the season at AAA. Gross is quite an athlete, he quarterbacked for Auburn in his college days before dedication himself to baseball. Given his history, he is still considered rather raw, though the Jays have been impressed with his baseball instincts in the minors. He needs time to become a more consistent player, which is why the Jays want him playing everyday in AAA until there is a full time spot available in Toronto. If the injury bug hits Toronto’s outfield, he’ll be the first one called up, otherwise he probably will continue to hone his game in Syracuse until September call ups.
The Rotation
The rotation starts and ends with 2003 Cy Young Award winner Roy Halladay, who experienced a frustrating 2004 marred with injury and inconsistency. Still only 27, Halladay missed two months due to a tired shoulder, which most attribute to the fact that he pitched over 500 innings in his previous two dominating campaigns. There was no structural damage though, and while the Jays may not leave Halladay on the mound to finish as many games as they have in the past, there is little to suggest that he cannot return to his dominating form of old. Halladay features a fastball with late movement that hits the upper 90s at times as well a sharp slider and curveball combination, all of which he delivers with pinpoint accuracy when on his game. Rumor has it he is developing a changeup this spring training. He’s a top contender for the Cy Young this year in my book. And worth repeating: still only 27.
Lefty Ted Lilly is the number 2 starter, though he developed shoulder tendonitis at the beginning of spring training and most likely not to be ready for opening day. Regardless, Lilly took a step forward for the Jays last season, standing in admirable as the top pitcher with Halladay out. Lilly works his changeup off a low 90s fastball against right-handed hitters and also features a sharp over the top curve to lefties. Lack of focus has always been the knock on Lilly, another improving year like 2004 and he can put that talk to bed for good. Also, his full name is Theodore Roosevelt Lilly, which is fun, though the whole “Speak softly and carry a big stick,” thing really would work better for a batter.
David Bush has a lock on the #3 spot and hopes to build off of what was really a quite successful debut in 2004. In his 16 starts last season, Bush maintained a 3.69 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP to go with his 5-4 record on a low scoring team. That’s a good start, and while the Jays expect hitters to catch up with Bush a bit in his second campaign, they feel that he is a bright enough pitcher to make adjustments in his own right. Bush features a low 90s fastball which works well with his sharp curve and changeup combination to right-handed hitters. However, Bush never did show much confidence in that changeup against lefties, enabling them to sit on the curveball and do some damage to the 25 year old. With confidence in that changeup will come more effectiveness against lefties and that has been the major focus of his spring training this season. The result will probably determine Bush’s success in 2005, and while he might not make a quantum leap against lefties, it is a safe bet that he will improve at least a little bit and cement himself as a quality #3 pitcher.
Josh Towers and someone named Gustavo Chacin are expected to round out the rotation in 2005. Towers is the epitome of a 5th starter, a control pitcher who needs everything going right to survive 6 innings in the majors, to which his 5+ ERA and 1.50 WHIP attest. Chacin spent 4 years in the minors with little success before putting it all together last year at AA New Hampshire and than again at AAA Syracuse. He replicated that on the big stage in Toronto, albeit he only got two starts there. He’s still just a kid, 24, he’ll be a major league wild card for the Jays.
The Bullpen
Miguel Batista has recently been named the closer for the Jays; that apparently based on the short 5 save tryout he got at the end of last season. Well, he does throw in the 95 MPH range and he has never really had that third consistent pitch to make him effective as a starter, so it seems as good pick as closer than any other of which I can think. He is another wildcard for 2005, but the more you think about it the more it does make sense for the guy. Walks have always been as issue with Batista, but even that could be blamed on his inconsistent/lack of a third pitch. I’m cautiously optimistic.
Batista supplants Justin Speier as closer, though he was perhaps the most consistent arm in the bullpen last season for the Jays. In his career, Speier has been around the block a few times, pitching well some seasons, horribly others, but seemingly always with a new team (Toronto is #6 by my count). Excepting last season, consistency is not Speier’s strong suit historically and as such his role as setup man to Batista does not look to be one in which he can be expected to excel.
Jason Frasor and Kerry Lightenberg can be expected to return to the pen this season. Frasor was lights out in the first half as the Jays closer, saving 17 of 19 and looking dominant at times. But the wheels came off in the second half as he struggled to locate his pitches and as a result struggled to get anyone out at all. Lightenberg fought hip pain all season in 2004 and his numbers showed it (6.36 ERA) even though he still made 57 appearances. A healthy Lightenberg shouldn’t be that bad, I expect him to come back as a serviceable 6th and 7th inning guy this season.
After that it gets really ugly, Scot Schoeneweis is likely to be in the pen by virtue of his lefthandedness, Justin Miller, Vinny Caulk and Ryan Glynn expect to compete for the last few spots in the pen. It could turn out to be one of the worst relief squads in the league.
The Skinny
Things don’t look really good for Toronto just yet, they simply don’t have the firepower required to compete in the AL East. They have some building blocks, the first three starters should hold there own, Wells is a top notch CF, Rios and Hudson are developing nicely. With that, there financial constraint has been admirable; most clubs would have spent the $13M/year to bring Delgado back and put a better product on the field in 2004, but Ricarrdi was wise to pocket that money so he could use it to add smarter pieces to the long term puzzle.
To those building blocks the Jays should be able to add Gross as an everyday LF and Quiroz behind the plate in 2006 as well as top pitching prospects (and Tommy John recoveree) Dustin McGowan and Brandon League (League may find a spot in the bullpen in 2005 and he features a 98 MPH fastball the pen could use). As those players develop, the Jays may find better use of that Delgado money to add some depth to the bullpen or perhaps another starter at the back end of the rotation. It isn’t inconceivable that this team could compete for a wildcard spot in 2006 or 2007.
Alas, it is only 2005. Jays fans will have an OK team to watch, especially those days that Halladay takes the mound. But they’d be advised to leave early, it is probably going to be rather ugly after the 7th inning or so. I’m putting them down for 74 wins.
Next up: What looks like it could be another Rocky Mountain low in 2005.
Posted by stan at 07:55 PM
Lunch at the Ragin' Cajun's
Try the fried crawfish tails...James Carville himself would be impressed.
Posted by stan at 05:36 PM
Downtown
Posted by stan at 05:25 PM
March 19, 2005
Freckled Mexican
Sara and I invented a new drink tonight, the Freckled Mexican, which is half Guinness and half Tecate. When I drink one, it makes me feel tougher than a boll weevil in a sugar jar.
Posted by stan at 10:38 PM
March 18, 2005
Houston Architecture
"John thought beer cured everything," explained Mary, his wife...
Posted by stan at 09:52 AM | TrackBack
March 17, 2005
Baseball Hearings
-Wow, I knew these congressional hearings on steroids would be overwrought, but I didn't think a congressmen would break out the Casey At The Bat quotes in the first 5 minutes!
-Rep. Mark Souder once traded a box of baseball cards, including multiple Mickey Mantles, for ONE Nellie Fox card! That is the kind of forward looking person I want representing me in Congress. Let me guess, he doesn't buy this whole global warming thing because it was cold this morning...
-I haven't seen anyone wag there finger like Rafe Palmeiro since a certain "I did not have sexual relations with that woman..." speech.
-A Dennis Kucinich siting! America's crazy old uncle in the attic is decrying the win-at-any-cost mentality in the United States...that kind of explains his presidential campaign...
-United States Congress, Jose Canseco, a discussion of hypothetical "smart pills"...this will get mentioned when The Fall of the American Empire is published in a couple of hundred years...
-Ah, Congressman Noname quickly adds the "smart pills" should be prescribed to Congress joke, didn't see that coming...
-There are few better phrases than "Linda Chavez's time has expired..."
-Sara: "Henry Waxman shouldn't critize the physical characteristics of anyone."
-Chris Matthews refers to Bud Selig's upcoming commentary as "hot."
-Donald Fehr just handed Henry Waxman his ass, no wonder the player's union always comes out on top...
-Fehr is now doing the same thing to Chris Shays!
-Elijah Cummings completely misinterpreting the concept of the Rope-a-Dope...
-I'd like to nominate Mark Souder as the new under Secretary of feigned indignation...
-Donald Fehr just embarassed Westmoreland now, pointing out that it isn't MLB's responsibility to set legal penalties for drug offenses, a fairly obvious point that shouldn't be lost on a committee of CONGRESSMEN. I'm hoping he has an exploratory committee convened for 2008 at this point...
Posted by stan at 10:10 AM
March 15, 2005
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers
Last Year: 5th Place (68-93)
New on Tap: Carlos Lee, Damian Miller, Jose Capellan
Recycled: Danny Kolb, Scott Posednik, Craig Counsell
Infield
Lyle Overbay will start the season as the clubs 1B, with everyone hoping to see more of the first half 2004 Overbay (.944 OPS) than the second half version (.764 OPS). Not your prototypical slugging 1B, he probably tops out at 25 HRs, but he has enough pop to get the ball into the alleys as evidenced by his 53 doubles last year. He also should about be coming into his prime as a hitter, this will be his third full year in the majors and he starts the season at 28. All these things point to a solid 2005 for Overbay, though it is possible that he finishes the season with a different position or team to make room for the clubs top slugging prospect, Prince Fielder.
Cecil’s boy should start the season at AAA and at 21 has certainly progressed rapidly through the system thus far. A strong performance by Overbay will allow Fielder some additional time to develop further in the minors, but given the fact that he is perhaps the top hitting prospect of any team already, my guess is that you’ll see him with the big club before the year is out. The one knock on Fielder is that he definitely inherited his physique from his old man, which translates into a diminished ability in the field and a greater chance of injury. But so far neither have proved to be an issue.
Pretty much the same situation at 2B this year, with Junior Spivey starting the year with the big club, but pretty much just holding the position until prospect Rickie Weeks is ready to step in and play. Spivey made a splash as a rookie for the Diamondbacks back in 2002, but pitchers seem to figure him out the second time around and his numbers have diminished to barely serviceable in the two years since. Weeks, on the other hand, was the #2 overall pick in the 2003 draft and progressed quickly through the minor league system until taking a step back in AA last season. Had that not happened, Weeks might be penciled in to start this season. Regardless, he seemed to find his stroke again in the Arizona Fall League and put up strong numbers across the board. Should Spivey get off to a slow start and Weeks continue his hot hitting this April in AAA, Weeks very well could be with the big club by the All-Star break.
Continuing with the youth movement, rookie JJ Hardy is expected to take the reigns at SS this season and is a potential ROY. After another strong start in AAA last season, Hardy missed much of the season due to injury. He’s healthy now and the Brewers think he has the maturity to adjust to the majors regardless of the fact that he hasn’t played much ball in the last year. In fact, the Brewers had contemplated giving him the job last season and may have if the club hadn’t obtained Craig Counsell via trade. Hardy has hit consistently in the minors showing good plate discipline and has begun to develop mid-range power as he moved up the ladder. In addition, he is rather polished defensively for a 22 year old, so even if his bat is slow to develop he has something to offer the Brewers.
Big Russ Branyan and Wes Helms are in a fight for 3B duties and, the good Lord willing, Helms will get the job over the all-or-nothing Branyan. Injuries ruined much of Helms’ 2004 campaign, but he did put up somewhat respectable numbers as the Brewers full-time 3B in 2003, going 27/63/.261. Branyan, on the other hand, has never batted above .238 in his career and has struck out in over 40% of his major league ABs. To put that in prospective, if the Brewers made the mistake of getting Branyan 550 ABs this season, he could be expected to whiff 220 times. You’d probably get 30 HRs to go with that as well, kind of Steve Balboniesque performance. Jeff Cirillo lurks in the 3B mix as well.
The Brewers signed Damian Miller the off season to handle the catching duties. While his offensive numbers have improved slightly over the years, Milwaukee is clearly looking for someone that will provide guidance to some of their young players and help them continue to develop. He should be able to provide that, as well as some occasional pop here and there. Chad Moeller, another defensive backstop, will spell Miller when he needs it.
Outfield
The main off season addition for Milwaukee was to bring left fielder Carlos Lee in from Chicago in exchange for Scott Podsednik and Luis Vizcaino. Lee is kind of like a good mutual fund, he consistent over the long term of a season, but his production fluctuates quite a bit on a week to week basis. While he doesn’t offer much in the way of defense’s safely a 30/100/.290 guy, but he slumps for long periods of time and then comes out of that funk to go on impressive tears. One wonders what kind of numbers he could produce if he could eliminate one or two of those funks each season – it could catapult him into one of the best outfielders in the league.
In right field, Geoff Jenkins is pretty similar to Lee, though a notch below in overall ability and leaps and bounds better in the field. For Jenkins, it hasn’t been slumps so much as injuries that have kept him from putting up top numbers in the outfield. Last season was the first in a while that he was healthy for the most part, he played in a career high 157 games, and even though his strike outs seem to continue to rise you can expect good if not excellent numbers from Jenkins.
In center field, Brady Clark will be the everyday answer. Clark is a Randy Winn or Mark Kotsay type player, he does everything OK but nothing spectacularly. Maybe he is a notch below those guys. He’d be a great fourth outfielder on one of the power house teams, but he will be adequate as an everyday guy I think.
Dave Krynzel and Corey Hart will fill in if anyone of the starters go down. Krynzel offers impressive speed and Hart offers quite a bit of power, but the Brewers will be in trouble if either are called on to play a significant amount.
The Rotation
The rotation starts and stops with Ben Sheets, who made the leap from a very good pitcher to a great one last season. He signed a $6M/1 year deal this off season, but it will be interesting to see if the Brewers will be able to lock him up in a long term deal or if he will be lost to free agency (in 2006, he is arbitration eligible after this season). Sheets has given his team at least 220 IP the last three season and dominated in 2004 despite battling through back problems that he had surgery to alleviate this off season. Using his 95+ MPH fastball, a sharp curve and improved changeup, Sheets struck out 10 batters per 9 IP and showed marked improvement by reducing his WHIP below 1.00 and handling left-handed hitting better than in the past. The only thing standing in his way from making a run at the 2005 Cy Young award is the anemic performance of the rest of his team. Sheets could be the big prize at the trade deadline this summer or next if the Brewers can’t work out a contract soon.
He’s light years away from Sheets, but Doug Davis provides the Brewers with a very serviceable #2 starter. In fact, he’s done nothing but pitch well since he came over from Toronto, posting outstanding numbers in the second half of 2003 and providing solid outings for the entire 2004 season (3.39 ERA). He doesn’t offer much in the way of stuff, he gets by mainly on a cut fastball and a slow, slower and slowest curveball from multiple angles that keeps the heavy bats off balance. With a bit of run support, Davis is capable of picking up 15 or so wins. No bets on whether he’ll get that support, but if not I think it is safe to say he will have another strong if unrecognized season.
Victor Santos is slotted as the #3 starter this year. After spending most of his career in the bullpen, Santos got his first shot at the rotation and pitched successfully in the first half of the year, going 8-3 before the break. Looking at the numbers a little deeper though, K/BB just barely over 2, WHIP pushing 1.40, it really looks like a lot of that fast start was good fortune. I say this with the benefit of hindsight of course, Santos got shelled in the second half with a 6.00 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP. Santos is a relatively soft throwing control pitcher without great control, he has to really be on to be effective. I’d like him as a #5 man perhaps.
Ben Hendrickson is #4, he got beat around pretty good as a starter for the big club last season. That’s OK though, he is just 24 this year and when he wasn’t getting his rough in Milwaukee he was toying with AAA hitters, going 11-3 with a 2.12 ERA in Indianapolis. He’s done pretty much the same amount of damage at every stop but Milwaukee so far, so it is more of a matter of when and how fast that if Hendrickson will develop into a solid major league starter. His curveball reminds me of the other Ben on the staff.
Chris Capuano should get the #5 spot, barring more injuries. He was decent in his first full season as a starter last year, but nagging injuries and a lack of control kept him from making a real contribution to the team. A fastball, slider, changeup pitcher, Capuano did pile up nearly 9K/9IP, so he has enough movement and pop to full major leaguers. He should continue to develop, if he can keep from consistently getting behind in the count he could be a very nice #5.
There is an outside chance that Dominican flamethrower Jose Capellan could start the year in the rotation. Capellan was the prize from the Atlanta system in return for closer Danny Kolb and dominated at three minor league levels in 2004. There is some concern that he moved throw the minors too quickly and that he was able to rely too much on his 97-98 MPH fastball and as a result hasn’t fully developed his breaking pitches. As a result, he’ll probably at least start the season in the pen and though the Brewers insist otherwise, the kid has future closer written all over him.
The Bullpen
Mike Adams is expected to closer for Milwaukee, but I have to be honest, I have no independent information that allows me to confirm that this man actually exists, let alone will be a quality stopper. Chalk that up to baseball economics 2005, when you are short on cash the first place to cut among the everyday players is with established closers (which is at least evidence of some fiscal sanity in Milwaukee, which you can’t say about some other teams). In any event, he is a hard thrower, touches 95 with his fastball and has a good slider, all of which seem good traits for a closer. If he does indeed exist.
Luis Vizcaino, last year’s setup man, was shipped off to Chicago as part of the deal that brought Carlos Lee to LF, leaving a bit of a hole in the bullpen. Capellan could fit into this spot, but look for the rejuvenated Ricky Bottalico to get the bulk of the time, at least initially. Best know for his frequent and spectacular emulations on the mound as a closer for the Phillies in the late 90s, he actually had a very nice season pitching in relief for the Mets in 2004. He’s a bargain signing, to be sure, but he could provide a steady if not spectacular late innings bridge to Adams.
After that, well, things start getting real thin real fast. Justin Lehr is a bit of as soft tosser who had a lot of success as a minor league closer, but that didn’t translate in his call up to Oakland last year. Brooks Keischnick will provide some decent innings and serve again as a much needed bat off the bench for Milwaukee (he also provides a fun name for announcers to say, which is important on a bad team like this). Jorge de la Rosa throws hard but has yet to harness that power. Wes Obermuller exists in that limbo between long relief and the 5th starter (call it Villoneville). It looks grim.
The Skinny
Yes, yes it does look grim, how this team was over .500 in the first half of last season I'll never understand. I like the addition of Lee in the outfield; that was a definite steal in exchange for Posednik and Vizcaino. Sheets will be great every 5th day, Davis might be very good every 5th day, but after that it’s a crapshoot. When Milwaukee fans aren’t admiring Sheets, I expect they’ll spend most of there time tracking the development of the rookie middle infielders, hoping Capellan and Hendrickson can harness there stuff and waiting for Cecil’s boy to arrive. That and eat a couple of bratwurst and throw down a couple of Shotz brews with the Big Ragu.
Next up: We’re the only team in Canada now, eh?
Posted by stan at 11:04 PM
Squirrel Meat?
One eagle-eyed nohatnocattle reader has noticed that at the bottom of the first picture in this post appears what may be an advertisment offering squirrel steaks. I am happy to say that, upon further review of the source, this is indeed only an ad for an almond company.
Posted by stan at 04:36 PM
Chuck Norris, Esq.
In case you were wondering what he has been doing since his last show got cancelled.
Posted by stan at 01:29 PM
Patriotism
From today's NY Times:
Work slowdowns are methods commonly used by labor unions to apply pressure without actually striking. During the Solidarity movement in Poland, people expressed their disapproval of the government-run news media by taking a walk with their hats on backward at exactly 6 p.m. when the state news program started. When the government noticed the trend, it issued curfews, but people then put their televisions in their windows facing outward so that only the police walking the streets would see the broadcasts."You have to remember, in Poland during those years showing up drunk at work was seen as a patriotic act because people hated the bosses so much," Professor Scott said.
Posted by stan at 11:56 AM | Comments (1)
Elk Steaks
I noticed this ad the other day in the back of a magazine:
I confess I've always been a fan of the exotic meats, put a dish of wild boar on a restaurant menu and can't resist and the reindeer jerky was the highlight of my trip to Norway last year. But I didn't realize that Elk is the gold standard of healthy exotic meats. Take a look:
Health Meat Rankings
1. elk ranges from .7 to 1% fat,
2. ostrich 2 to 3% fat,
3. buffalo 2 to 3% fat,
4. chicken breast 2 to 4% fat,
5. salmon 5 to 6% fat,
6. ham 6% fat,
7. roast beef 6 to 10% fat, and
last. back 98 to 104% fat.
I think Elk might be just the thing to take the edge off of the increasingly high percentage of whole-grain products that have been making their way into the house lately.
Delicious!
Posted by stan at 09:35 AM | Comments (1)
March 14, 2005
Texas Steak
Sara & I decided to sit by the pool yesterday and grill steaks, because the weather is nice and that is what you do here. Little did I know that everyone is so pro-Texas in these parts that even the grocery stores actually sell texas-shaped cuts of beef.
Take a look:
I'm was going to put that baby on ebay and see what I could get for it, but I was pretty hungry so I just ate it instead. East Texas was a little fatty, but I must say, what a tasty panhandle!
Posted by stan at 09:33 AM
March 13, 2005
Southern Living
Took only 2 1/2 months for them to get the name and address, not bad. Plus, I hear they have a really good expose on humidity coming up in the April issue.
Posted by stan at 05:18 PM
The Washington Nationals
Washington Nationals
Last Year: 5th Place (67-94)
Elected For 2005: Vinny Castilla, Cristian Guzman, Esteban Loaiza
Sent Home by the Voters: Tony Batista, Juan Rivera
Infield
There are a lot of positions that haven’t been permanently decided just yet and one of those is 1B. Nick Johnson is penciled in there for now, but that is only until he gets injured again and is out for the season. He’s missed at least part of each of the last 4 seasons with a variety of ailments ranging from a broken jaw to semi-chronic back issues, but comes into spring training this year (supposedly) with a clean bill of health. The word is that, when healthy, Johnson will give you modest power (15-20 HR), an average in the .300 range and the ability to get on base at a pretty good clip, not to mention a solid glove on the field. But that is all hypothetical, since “healthy” has never happened for Johnson.
When Johnson gets hurt, the Nats plan on moving Brad Wilkerson in from the infield to take his place. Wilkerson was the breakout player for the 2004 Expos, beefing his HR total up from an average of 20ish in the previous few years to 32. What’s more, in the second half he showed the potential to hit for a higher average and OBP than he has thus far in his career, going .274/.391. I’m really interested in watching to see if he can finally put all of these things together for a full season (along with cut down the strike outs), and given that he is just coming into his prime as a 27 year-old, I think the chances are good that he could do it. Throw in 15 or so SB and you have yourself an All-Star in the Brian Giles type mode.
The Nats went out and spent $6.2M over 2 years to sign up the 37 year-old Vinny Castilla to handle 3B this year. I didn’t like the deal much when I first heard it, but it has grown on me a bit in the meanwhile. While no one expects Castilla to approach his 2004 Coors-inflated numbers, it is not a stretch to think that he can put up roughly the same numbers as he did in Atlanta in 2002-2003. If he does that, he can be a solid 20/80/.270 guy at a pretty modest price. Still, the second year seems to be too much, Brendan Harris, acquired from the Cubs last summer, is primed to take of at 3B eventually. You could start him at the league minimum.
Jose Vidro comes back in 2005 trying to regain the form that made many think he’d be the top 2B in the game back around the turn of the century. He went 24/97/.330 that year, and though he has been good since most of his numbers have been trending in the wrong direction since, largely due to injury. The move to Washington should help that somewhat, RFK will have a more forgiving grass surface than the turf in Montreal and Puerto Rico. Add to that a bit more protection in the lineup than he’s seen in the past couple of years and I think you can expect to see Vidro’s numbers turn around and head in the other direction this year.
Cristian Guzman joins Washington to play SS in 2005, signing a $16.8M/4 Year deal this off season. That deal met with some fairly strong criticism and rightly so. He doesn’t offer much in the way of offense as is .303 OBP over the last 3 years shows. He’s got a little speed, but over that same period of time he gets caught stealing just about as much as he makes it safely (13 of 22). No power either. The Nats point to his defensive ability, he lead the league in fielding percentage for SS last season, but those defensive stats aren’t the most telling and a number of Sabrmetricians have argued that he is overrated in even that category. Bad signing, especially for a team short on money.
Behind the plate, Brian Schneider will take be entering his second season as the full time catcher. Schneider showed signs of breaking down in the second half last year, his power numbers dropped after July, but he continued to do what Washington wants him to do: provide superior defense behind the plate and help the young pitching staff along in there development. Schneider threw out a whopping 50% of base stealers last year, which is tough to top. Expect more of the same, solid defense, flashy arm and an adequate bat.
Outfield
The best move the Nats made all off season was to bring Jose Guillen into the fold at the bargain basement price of $3.5M. Acquired from Anaheim for Juan Rivera (who had a very nice second half in 2004) and Macier Izturis, Guillen is a legitimate All-Star with a tremendous arm. Not that I have any inside information or anything (though nohatnocattle’s sources MLB sources are many), but I tend to discount the run-ins Guillen had with the Angels last season. Mike Scioscia seems to me to be something of a hard ass and I think the team may have bought into its “we’re all team players here” reputation enough that the environment might not be the most accepting of players like Guillen with a more than healthy ego and attitude to match. Of course, Frank Robinson seems to be the hard ass type too, so who knows. In any event, he’s a great player adding much needed power and protection in the lineup, no one doubts that. He’s also in a contract year, which tends to straighten some guys out. Rumor has it that he even attended an anger management class this winter. All systems go for Guillen, expect another great year.
Endy Chavez is the experiment in CF. Washington wants his speed (32 SB) at the top of the lineup so they can move Wilkerson down to the 5 spot, but are worried about his ability to get on base consistently (.318 last season). In a way, he is one of the most important guys on the team. If he can handle the everyday job that will allow Wilkerson to produce more runs as well as keep Nick Johnson on the bench. If not, things kind of start to fray a bit. I don’t know, he hasn’t proven he is up to the task yet, but they are a much better team for it if he can add maybe 30 more points to his OBP this season.
The final spot in LF is earmarked for Terrmel Sledge. Sledge got plenty of playing time with the Expos in 2004 and produced mediocre results. The Nats are betting that he can build on that experience in 2005 and begin to develop into a player more in line with his 2003 AAA numbers (22/92/.324 and a .397 OBP). There is also the potential for Sledge to take over in CF if Chavez struggles.
JJ Davis, who missed much of 2004 with injuries but has a reputation as a tools guy, is a long shot to press Chavez & Sledge for playing time in the outfield.
The Rotation
It seems like a long, long time since Livan Hernandez helped lead the Florida Marlin’s to there first World Series championship. Even so, he only turned 30 (granted, 30 in Cuban pitcher years) this February and has spent the better part of the last 5 years being the most underrated pitcher in the game (with all due respect to the pre-2004 Jamie Moyer). Not only has he pitched well in that time (the exception was a sub-par 2001 campaign), he pretty much hasn’t missed a start and has time and again shown the propensity to go deep in games, never throwing fewer than 216 innings, thrice throwing 230+ and topping out at a amazing 255 innings pitched in 2004. You keep waiting and waiting for all these innings to add up, and to be fair there were periods where Hernandez threw like a tired pitcher last season, but they just never seem to catch up to him. The ability to pencil in on guy to provide your team 240 IP each season, to a certain extent regardless of the quality of those innings, is immeasurable, especially when you are considering the cash strapped club that Hernandez has played for the last two seasons. He might be the most valuable pitcher to his team in the entire game going into 2005 (Ben Sheets might argue?). This is a lot of praise for a guy who has lost more than he’s one the last 5 years, but he deserves it.
I’d put old friend Tomo Ohka in the #2 spot. He’s another guy that has quietly put together three strong seasons (3.60 ERA) while banished to Montreal since coming over from the Red Sox in return for Ugie Urbina (the only major league player to ever have the initials UUU). In fact, he may have been on his way to a breakout year, maybe one that people would have noticed, if his season didn’t ostensibly end when he broke his arm on a comebacker in June. Up until that point he’d maintained a 3.01 ERA through 12 starts, though he did get batted around in 3 starts late in the season coming back from the injury that obscured his 2004 numbers somewhat. With his development over the last few years along with the move to Washington, where people might actually attend the games, people could finally start to appreciate Ohka this year. And he still has room for improvement, his WHIP has been in the 1.30-1.40 range the last few years. If he can cut down his walks and get a bit of run support he could be a 15 game winner.
The Nationals are hoping for a healthy Tony Armas Jr. to give them innings in the 3rd spot. He’s missed most of the last two seasons due to shoulder surgeries and has lost time to other ailments as well, it’s beginning to look like the highlight of his career could be the fact that he was once traded for the great Pedro Martinez. Hope springs eternal and Armas Jr. seems to be throwing without pain in spring training thus far, but it’s best not to hold your breathe for the guy.
After Armas Jr., the rotation starts to get a little bit iffy. Estaban Loaiza, another off season signing, is anyone’s guess in the number 4 spot. He’s gone from being one of the worst every 5 days pitchers in baseball for the Blue Jays in 2002 (5.71 ERA), to a legit Cy Young candidate in 2003 (2.90 ERA), back to one what might be to worst 42 innings of pitching for the Yankees the second half of last season (8.50 ERA, .337 BA against and a eye-popping WHIP above 2!). And that doesn’t even count the playoffs.
Rounding out the rotation is young Zach Day. Like Armas Jr., Day has missed parts of the last two seasons with a variety of ailments, including major shoulder troubles. Even so, he has looked promising when on the mound. Day relies on his hard sinker to keep the ball in the park and take advantage of the double play. Much like fellow sinkerballer Brandon Webb, Day has suffered from control problems as big league hitters have learned to lay off his main weapon early and then taking advantage of Day in favorable counts. He’ll need to make improvements here to be effective over the course of 2005.
The Bullpen
Chad Cordero will return to his role as the main closer in 2005, though Frank Robinson has indicated that he may use Luis Ayala to close some games in an effort to take some of the pressure off the 22-year-old. Cordero was inconsistent at times last year, but was impressive given his age and lack of seasoning. Not a fireballer, he spots his fastball in an effort to set up his out pitch, a nasty slider. If there is one area to criticize it is that Cordero is too often up in the zone with his fastball and he doesn’t have the mustard on that pitch to get away with it. The result is that he gives up his share of HRs, not a good trait in a stopper.
Ayala will be there to take over for Cordero should he falter, but expects to be the primary set up man if that doesn’t happen. Ayala has quietly been on of the better set up guys in both seasons since being promoted to the majors, posting an ERA below 3.00 each season. In addition, he’s shown signs of improvement, most notably improving against left-handed batters last season after struggling the year before. Ayala pitches with control and poise and his success will be key to the prospects of the Nats pen this year.
Jon Rauch and Dan Patterson, both hoping to nab a spot in the rotation, will probably fall into the pen. Rauch had mixed success as a starter in Chicago, put performed very well out of the pen for Montreal late last season. He projects as an average arm in the 6th and 7th inning this year. Patterson, who by at least Peter Gammon’s take is back to the form that made him a valuable piece of the puzzle in Arizona in 2002, will probably give the Nats about the same. Nothing special, but not terrible either.
Claudio Vargas and TJ Tucker will also chip in as right-handers; Joey Eischen and Joe Horgan will do the same as left-handers. They are all bit players at best at this point, the Nats will need at least one of this group to step up and take some pressure and innings off of the rest of the pen.
The Skinny
I like this team, but they are extremely thin going into 2005, as you might expect given the payroll constraints they’ve operated under. What they really need is an ownership change that will allow them to add a few more pieces. Chavez is a big key, if he develops into a solid lead it will allow the Nats to be a much better team and give them at least a little depth when the eventually need to deal with injuries over the season. Chavez, Vidro, Guillen, Castilla, Wilkerson is a solid enough lineup to score some runs and stay competitive.
Other than that, it will come down to the health of the pitching staff. The rotation is thin even after penciling Hernandez in for 240 IP and losing one or two of the projected starters would be something they don’t have the resources to deal with this just yet. Even if Patterson or Rauch or even Vargas could step in to help out, the bullpen wouldn’t be able to close out enough close games to stay competitive. Mike Hinckley and Clint Everts are the top pitching prospects in a minor league system that has been ravaged by lack of funds over the last 5 years, but it is perhaps too much to expect that either could make a significant contribution to the 2005 season (Everts is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery).
But the people of Washington will have a fun team to watch the first year, even if they are not playoff bound. And frankly I think they’d be happy with a boring team to watch after being teamless over the last 20 years. Put them down for 77 wins.
Next up: Laverne & Shirley’s hometown team.
Posted by stan at 04:57 PM
March 11, 2005
Baseball Timeline
Hey, I really like this. I think I'd like to buy a copy and frame it, once they update it for last season's WS.
Posted by stan at 03:27 PM
March 10, 2005
Local News
Boy, for the 4th largest city in the country, the local news here sure is, well, local. Last night they had a story that featured multiple camera angles shooting from what was suppose to be the bottom of a shopping bag and had repetitive shots of people putting shoe boxes into shopping bags in a parking lot. The story? Potential credit card fraud.
That doesn't beat last week's endlessly teased feature. The story? That's right, Demon Hunters. I didn't watch it, but can only imagine that it included some really professional dramatizations.
Then there was this one.
Oh yeah, Dan Rather got his start on one of the local Houston stations. They had an interview with his brother Don last night.
Oh how I pine for Hank Phillipi Ryan.
Posted by stan at 10:39 AM | Comments (1)
March 08, 2005
Searches
My goal in starting this site is nearly complete: I'm the #2 search option on MSN for the query, "Cheap Guns For Minors"!
Posted by stan at 11:17 AM
March 07, 2005
The Return of MacGyver
There has been a lot of banter and concern about my MacGyver problems among nohatnocattlers in the last few days, so I thought I'd let everyone know that it looks like things are going to work out after all. Turns out that the MacGyver DVDs were released recently, so we've popped them into our Netflix queue and I should be watching MacGyver again before the week is out.
The bad news is that rumor in MacGyver circles is that there are no special features on these discs, so we won't be getting any Richard Dean Anderson commentary or anything like that. But the good news is that, "The Heist", the best MacGyver episode ever is on the first disc. This is the one in which Mac has to steal some diamonds back from a casino owner that stole them from a charity (you know, one of those charities that has 75 lbs. of diamonds laying around). They made a movie kind of like this with Brad Pitt and George Clooney 15 years later.
Posted by stan at 12:07 PM
March 06, 2005
The Seattle Mariners
Seattle Mariners
Last Year: 4th Place (63-99)
Welcome Aboard: Adrian Beltre, Richie Sexson, Pokey Reese, Aaron Sele
Bon Voyage: Jolbie Cabrera, Edgar Martinez
Infield
So what do you do when your team drops from 110+ wins to 63 in the matter of three seasons? You take some chances and sign some sluggers in the hopes that it will placate the fans. Even if it probably isn’t the best use of the clubs money. Seattle’s first poke at this strategy came with the signing of Richie Sexson, who missed most of last season with the Diamondbacks because of shoulder trouble. Sexson is what he is, a free swinging guy with incredible power and an incredible propensity to strike out. While he has made some progress in cutting down the strike outs, what this usually means is that Sexson puts up big numbers, but usually not against quality pitching. That makes him a very nice player for a fourth place team and makes it understandable that no team in contention has ever expressed much interest in him. In Sexson’s defense, he seems healthy so far through spring training, and except for last season has had a been a very durable and very consistent player. Expect 40 HRs, but not many in big spots.
At the other corner of the diamond, the Mariners brought in last years NL HR champ, Adrian Beltre, in the second biggest signing of the off season ($65M/5 years). There are three explanations that I can think of for last season’s metamorphosis: the still only 26-year-old is finally coming into his own physically and mentally; the guy who rightly or wrongly has been knocked for having a terrible attitude decided to care because his contract was up at the end of the season; or, well, chemical enhancement. If I were the Mariners, I wouldn’t have been sure enough that first reason was the accurate one to give him that kind of contract. But I’m not, and if Seattle is right then they have a very young, very good player at the 3B for the next 5 years. But I’m not sure if that high-risk-high-reward strategy is the best answer for a team that has a lot of holes to fill.
Speaking of chemical enhancement, Bret Boone will be back as the teams starting 2B. The rumors had swirled about Boone a lot earlier than his mention in Jose Canseco’s new book. His drop off in 2004 was fodder for a lot of jokes, but he also was playing with a couple of nagging injuries last season in a wretched lineup and he was starting to look a little old (36 this year). With all those factors, it’s hard to know what to expect from Boone this year or really any year from now on. The day’s of 30+ HRs/.330 averages are gone I think, but he could respond positively to the new support in the lineup and put up solid seasons for the next few years. A 2B that goes 20/85/.285 and plays stellar defense is nothing to sniff at, after all.
And then there is old friend Pokey Reese as SS. The fans of Seattle will have to put up with all of the pink jerseys with “Pokey” scrawled on the back. They’ll get to make the jokes with friends when they see a guy walking down the street with a “Pokey” jersey. Did his girlfriend buy it for him and he’s just placating her? I hope his girlfriend bought it for him, the poor soul. Anyway, there isn’t much to discuss with Pokey, he’s all corn rows and leather; the pitchers will love him. And there is some hope offensively, the big field in Seattle might be perfect for him if he can slash some balls into the corners and alleys he’ll be standing on 3B more often than not. Regardless, everyone likes a guy named Pokey.
Behind the plate, Miguel Olivo expects to get the bulk of the time, with veteran Dan Wilson backing him up. Olivo, who came over from the White Sox in the deadline deal that landed them Freddy Garcia, may be a future All-Star with the potential to hit 20 HRs and even swipe 10 or so bases a year. But he hasn’t reached that potential yet, there are questions about his defense (but not his canon arm) and his ability to handle a pitching staff. Being under the wing of Wilson is the prefect remedy for these shortcomings, those are the traits that have kept Wilson on a major league roster for the better part of the last 15 years despite his limitations with the bat. Expect Olivo to succeed where Ben Davis failed.
The primary DH will be one of the more unsung guys around, Raul Ibanez. A career spent playing in Kansas City and Seattle will do that to a guy, I guess. He is good for 20 HR/80 RBI every year, and those numbers could improve now that he is a part of a stronger lineup.
Outfield
Ichiro. Boy, there’s not a player in baseball not named Derek Jeter that I dislike more than this guy. He is obviously a talented guy, but could a player (again, not named Jeter) possibly be more overrated? I guess it’s a feat to break a 70 year-old record, but George Sisler wasn’t dropping down bunts with a man on second in the ninth inning of a tie game knowing he had Bucky Jacobson batting behind him. What is he, the Japanese Wade Boggs? This can’t go over well with the other players, even on a team that is 40 games back, the supposed best player on the team, suppose to be one of best players in the game, bunting with a game on the line. I don’t think Sisler got a quarter of his hits by beating out dribblers to the left side of the infield. Maybe he’s the Japanese Alex Sanchez. He’s a tremendous defensive player, obviously fast enough to put some pressure on a defense, but lets get a hold of ourselves here, he wasn’t in the top 50 for OPS last season. FIFTHY! Kevin Mench? Better OPS than Ichiro. Eli Marrero? Better OPS than Ichiro. Mike Lamb and John Mabry? Same OPS as Ichiro. Mike Lamb! The year he won the MVP award his numbers didn’t belong in the same conversation as, speaking of chemical enhancement, Jason Giambi, but hey, he’s got that cool Madonna thing going on with his last name so, lets vote for him baseball writers! What is he, the Japanese University of Michigan Law School? And if I have to here one more local sportscaster on the baseball package talk about how he could hit 40 HRs if he wanted to I may have to jump out the window. Ichiro.
Calming down a bit, Randy Winn will be moving from center to left field this year. In contrast to Ichiro, it is hard not to like Winn as a player. He’s never going to draw much attention to himself with his game, but he consistently puts up solid numbers in all areas of the game. He’ll give you 15 HRs, 85 RBI, score 85 runs, swipe 20 bases and perform more than admirably in the field, very few mental mistakes. He’s a good supporting cast type guy to have on a team and perhaps the very definition of a guy who, while never to be confused with a hall of famer, had a very nice career for himself. I don’t know why, but these are the type of guys that fascinate me. 30 years for now, Randy Winn’s name is going to come up in conversation and people are going to say, “Oh yeah, remember Randy Winn? He had a nice little career.”
Winn is moving to center to make way for uber-prospect Jeremy Reed, one of the early favorites for ROY. He also came over from Chicago in the Freddy Garcia deal and was very impressive in his 18 game stint with the big club, hitting .397, but with not much power. The power should come, but he has shown himself to be adept in getting on base at all levels and should continue to do so in 2005. I think of him as a supped-up version of Kevin Youkilis with speed right now and a chance to develop into much more in the coming years.
The Rotation
It doesn’t seem like that long ago that the Mariners looked set in this department for years to come. Freddy Garcia was just reaching his prime, Jamie Moyer still wasn’t aging, young arms like Meche and Soriano and Pineiro were on the way and Kaz Sasaki was force at the end of games. Things didn’t work out too well, and to compound things Seattle traded number one Freddy Garcia and spent all of there off season money at the corner infield spots. I guess we’ll at least be able to determine if the staff’s sub-par performance last year was because of terrible run support and terrible luck or if the rotation just isn’t that good.
It is never a good sign when your team’s top starter is 42 years-old, but that seems to be the case here. Moyer was a solid middle of the rotation guy up through the 2003 season, he won 13+ games every year since 1997 (including 20 in 2001) with a sub 4.00 ERA in all but one of those years. He always gave up a lot of HRs as a soft tosser, but inexplicably seemed to keep the best hitting teams in the game off balance with an panoply of off speed pitchers and different arm angles. Then came 2004, where everyone seemed to finally catch up to one of the winningest pitchers of the last decade; he gave up a whopping 44 HRs. So, is it the end of Jamie Moyer? I say no. Moyer actually started 2004 fairly strong, with an ERA in the 3.40 range through June. I think the problem was mechanics, and when you throw an 80 MPH fastball small mechanical problems produce horrendous numbers. But there is no physical reasons why Moyer can’t keep on keeping on and he’s shown the ability to out think hitters pretty consistently for the last 10 years. I say he’ll be back to old form this year, maybe fewer IP, but he’ll take advantage of that big home field and the upgraded defense and continue to frustrate all those overly-aggressive sluggers out there.
Joel Pineiro probably has the best stuff in the rotation and he was poised to take over the role of staff ace until everything went wrong in 2004. He started 1-8 and was hurt by a lack of defense, a lack of run support and then finally a shoulder injury that mercifully ended his season in July. This spring he still isn’t 100%, but he’s expected to be ready for the start of the season. Like everyone else, he’ll take advantage of the new defense this year and should be expected to be back to his hard throwing good control self this season. If all goes well, he should be a candidate to make the leap to #1 starter status in 2006.
The oft-injured Gil Meche is next in the rotation, coming off a year that started horribly, included a trip back to the minors and then finally ended with a glimmer of hope in which he finished the season 6-2 with a sub 4.00 ERA. That seems always to be the case with Meche, glimmers of hope and signs of promise followed by setback after setback. 2005 is anyone’s guess, the standard deviation on this guy’s performance is off the charts.
The last two spots will be divvyed up between young Bobby Mastrich, young Cha Seung Baek and old Ryan Franklin. The first two showed some promise last season, Mastrich especially, and are probably the best candidates for the job. Mastrich is a relatively hard throwing, no nonsense type, there has been talk of him having a future as a closer at some point. Baek, well, I think he is Korean and know he is young. Aaron Sele will be skulking around somewhere in the mix for a spot too.
Last note, keep your eyes peeled for the crown jewel of the minor league system, Felix Hernandez. Even at only 18, we may see him as a September call up; he's got three pitches that are close to major league ready as he enters spring training this year. If he does make it this year, expect the Mariners to be incredibly cautious with his young arm.
The Bullpen
The affable and not-so-everyday Eddie Guardado is back for a second go as the Mariner’s closer. He had a rough year in 2004, suffering through shoulder and knee injuries that contributed to his 7 blown saves in only 41 appearances. But his underlying numbers were still strong, a sub 3.00 ERA, a sub 1.00 WHIP and a sub .200 BA against. He spent the off season trying to tweak his mechanics to improve control and take some of the pressure off his knees which can be a tough transition, especially for an older guy that has gotten use to throwing a certain way. He should be adequate.
Shigi Hasagawa and JJ Putz also return in the pen. Both players have had some limited success as closers, Shigi in 2003 and Putz last season. Look for Putz to fill in as closer if something happens to Eddie and Hasagawa to post numbers more representative of his 2003 season than of 2004. Both guys are very good options in the 7th and 8th innings.
The rest of the bullpen is less well defined. The journeyman Ron Villone will pitch in long relief, there are worse options and a selection of unproven guys or guys coming off injuries – George Sherrill, Julio Mateo, hard-throwing lefty Matt Thorton (another future closer?) – will be swapped in and out of the pen. Rafael Soriano, one of my favorite prospects to keep tabs on the last 2 or 3 years, could be back from Tommy John surgery in July, which would be a very nice boost for the pen. All in all though, I expect this group to be just a little bit better than average.
The Skinny
I don’t at all like how they spent there money in the off season, they desperately needed a starting pitcher like Derek Lowe or Odalis Perez to stabilize the rotation, but I think this team can be much better than last year and make a run at the playoffs if things go right. Ichiro and Winn will get on base and Boone, Beltre and Sexson will drive them in quite a bit. In addition to the run support, the defense should be tremendous. Reese, Boone, Beltre, Ichiro and Winn are all gold-glove caliber defenders. And they can’t possibly suffer as many injuries as they did in 2004.
That said, the rotation is still a major question mark. Moyer is 42, Pineiro and Meche are coming back from rough campaigns, Madstritch and the 5th starter are unproven and there isn’t much depth beyond these guys; 10 starts for Ron Villone or Aaron Sele will not be a good sign. If a couple of these guys blow up in 2005, it won’t matter how much the defense has improved. Yet this group still has the potential to be above average and the bullpen has the potential to be downright good. They could hang around and give the Angels and Rangers some trouble, but in the end I think they’ll fall just shy of making the playoffs.
Last though, this is one of the few teams around in the last couple of years to basically have an everyday player at each position 1 thru 9. Not one platoon or positional battle going into the season. A throwback, these Mariners of Seattle.
Put them down for 88 wins.
Up Next: The new squad in the nation's capital.
Posted by stan at 06:41 PM
March 05, 2005
Bohemia
We've temporarily suspended the Era of Cheap Mexican Beer to sample a kind of expensive Mexican Beer.
Posted by stan at 02:03 PM | Comments (1)
March 04, 2005
Random Website
Conservative Christian Blueberry Farmers
Posted by stan at 09:28 PM
Lunch Break
There is something that's A-OK about watching baseball games on ESPN during your lunch break. This living right by work thing could become a problem once the season starts.
Posted by stan at 03:52 PM
March 02, 2005
Speaking Of Beer
Speaking of beer, Sara brought home some Lamar Street Pale Ale from the local Whole Foods the other day. Turns out that our old friends at the Goose Island Beer Company brewed up this selection but sells it under Whole Foods' brand. Apparently, they're not sure the fine folks in Chicago are ready to go off the organic deep end with their beers just yet. Anyway, it isn't bad, though it falls short of my beloved Sierra Nevada Pale.
Posted by stan at 09:00 PM
Fancy Lawnmower
Thanks to a prolonged sale down at the local Rice Epicurian Market, we've been sampling more products from the fine St. Arnold's Brewery. I recommend the Fancy Lawnmower. Best part is, if you collect a bunch of empty six-pack carriers and bring them down to the brewery, you get free stuff .
Posted by stan at 07:39 PM
March 01, 2005
Where's MacGyver?
One of the nicest parts of the move to Houston has been that, since our apartment is directly across the street from my office, I usually have time in the morning to get something to eat and enjoy a cup of coffee before running out to work. While this doesn't make up from not being able to oblige my normal ritual of stopping by Dunkin' Donuts on the way to work, it is still nice.
To complement this, I've been able to flip on the TV at 8 and catch the first half hour of a classic episode of MacGyver while sipping coffee. Besides the blast from the past - the taking me back to those simpler times when really tall blond spiky hair and mock collared shirts were acceptable out of a grown man - it provides me with a valuable opportunity to impress my future bride with my MacGyver trivia prowess.
For instance, when she asks what this MacGyver character's first name is, I can quickly tell her that it is Angus and provide her details about the two-episode dream sequence in which Mac goes back in time to the Middle Ages, joins up with the knights of the round table and is able to uncover his first name from a message left by one of his ancestors on a dungeon wall. Or I can regal her with information like that both Brandon Walsh & Blossom of TV's Blossom got there start on MacGyver episodes. Or that Teri Hatcher's protrayal of the recurring character Penny Parker is not at all sexist or simplistic typecasting of a female character, but rather that her simplicity of thought (some call it ditziness) is the perfect vehicle to bring out the inner complexity of this man MacGyver (after all, he eschews guns because his childhood friend was accidently killed while they were playing with a handgun in the woods, and even though an 8 year old Mac transformed his bike into a combination bike/stretcher and was able to get him to the hospital he still died, or that he was set to make the olympic hockey team in his youth but had his chances cut short by injury, this is a man with issues! And that is the paradox of MacGyver, he can handle the most complex problems of other people, but cannot seem to do the same with his own prolems.) Anyway, I feel that these conversations have brought Sara and I closer together, or at the very least they have given Sara an opportunity to hone her snide comment making.
So yesterday I tuned in at 8, just like I always do, and there was some silly NASCAR show on. Same thing this morning. The only conclusion I can draw here is that the formerly fine folks over at Spike TV (TV for men) are not at all interested in helping strengthen the matrimonial bonds of it's audience members. I am beginning to think that the are only interested in ratings!
Posted by stan at 10:31 AM | Comments (5)