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February 27, 2005

Kansas City Royals

Kansas City Royals

Last Year: 5th Place (58-104)

Welcome Aboard: Jose Lima, Terrance Long, Eli Marrero
Farewell: Juan Gonzalez, Joe Randa, Benito Santiago, Desi Relaford

Infield

From 1999-2001 Mike Sweeney was arguably one of the toughest outs in baseball, averaging just fewer than 30 HRs & 120 RBI a year, all the while getting on base 4 out of every 10 trips to the plate. That’s when the back problems started and since then Sweeney has missed at least a quarter of each season and been a shell of his former self when in the lineup. 2005 represents a last chance of sorts, as GM Allan Baird will face increasing pressure to move Sweeney and the remaining $33M he is owed over the next 3 year (Texas & Anaheim are already said to have inquired) and Sweeney has already indicated that he is willing to waive his no-trade privileges. For Sweeney’s part, he spent the off-season participating in a training regimen almost exclusively dedicated to strengthening that cranky back and has said that it feels as good as ever. Stay tuned.

If Sweeney does go down, the rotund starting DH Ken Harvey will try to fill his shoes. Harvey has hit .478 in college ball, .380 in A-Ball, .338 in AA, tore it up in AAA Omaha and won an MVP in the Arizona Fall League. His first two years in Kansas City haven’t been that successful, but he has held his own and his numbers improved across the board in his second campaign. There is no reason to expect this to stop, Harvey should be in Tony Pena’s lineup everyday and should make a run at 25 HRs this year. If he does, that will make Baird’s decision regarding Sweeney a little easier and if Sweeney does get moved, open the door for Big Cal Pickering to slide into the DH spot.

Chris Truby is expected to start the season at 3B, but that is expected to last only as long as it takes to get Moneyball prospect Mark Teahen ready for the majors. Teahen was acquired in the deal that send Carlos Beltran to Houston and was compared favorably to Jason Giambi before he developed his power (and presumably got involved in that other stuff). Teahen’s power still isn’t there, but at the very least he should be putting up Sean Burroughs-like respectable numbers for the big league club by the time September rolls around. What happens after that is anyone’s guess.

Same story, different position. Career utility man Tony Graffanino should be playing 2B for Kansas City on opening day, but Ruben Gotay is the long term hope for that spot. The switch-hitting Gotay held his own with the bat as a late season call up last year (though he had a horrible winter), but he looked lost defensively at times is expected to get a bit more time in AAA to polish his game before coming back to Kansas City for good. Still only 22, Gotay is not a speedster, but could develop into a Todd Walker-like 2B in time.

Angel Berroa will be back to give it another go at SS this year. After his rookie of the year performance in 2003, Berroa imploded last spring, spent some time on the DL due to migraine headaches and eventually was demoted back to AA to help figure things out. But, good news, it seems like he did just that and returned to Kansas City looking as good as he ever has. 2005 is anyone’s guess, but clearly the bloom is off rose of Berroa’s ROY campaign. He’s still just 26, but he’ll have to show some improvement this year to be considered a solid long-term option at SS for a club.

Outfield

Life as the heir apparent to Carlos Beltran wasn’t easy for Dave DeJesus, nor must have been having his 1-23 start detailed on the Imus in the Morning Show last April. DeJesus recovered when he returned to the club in June and ended the season with respectable numbers. He’s the only sure thing in the Kansas City outfield this year, he’ll lead off for the Royals and is expected to build on has 2nd half success of last year. Expect his on-base percentage to improve, it was around .400 in his three years in the minors, and his power to continue to develop. It might also be nice if the Royals give the man some instruction on base stealing, his speed only translated into only 8 SBs in 19 attempts last year.

The rest of the outfield is a crap shoot, with Matt Stairs, Terrance Long and Abraham Nunez figuring to share the majority of the corner outfield duties. The Hamster and Long are guys that a lot of teams would like as their fourth outfielders (I’ve been arguing for the Sox to sign Stairs each of the last three off-seasons, they haven’t obliged), but neither has the consistency for an everyday role. Nunez, on the other hand, still has a reputation as a 5-tool type guy. At 28, he isn’t a prospect anymore, but he’s never gotten a chance to play everyday either, this should be it. Eli Marrero and Aaron Guiel figure to step in case of injury.

The Rotation

It seems like every spring people are wondering if Kansas City’s young pitchers will finally make the leap as major leaguers and every fall those same people are lamenting the rash of arm injuries and other problems that didn’t let it happen. Nothing has changed this year and this spring a full 10 pitchers come to camp with hopes of securing a slot in the rotation. Second year starter Zack Greinke is the most promising of those 10 and may get the nod on opening day. Greinke looked dominate at times last season, getting ahead in the count with his mid nineties fastball and working off it with a variety of off speed pitches. Greinke walked only 26 in 145 IP last year, the same command he has shown throughout his minor league career. He got dinged by the long ball a little too often (also 26), be he is an easy bet to continue to develop into a front half of the rotation pitcher.

Next up, Runelvys Hernandez will be making his return from Tommy John surgery that forced him to miss all of the 2004 season. Hernandez was actually the opening day starter in 2003, where he started off very strong until his elbow started acting up. It’s probably too early to ask a lot from Hernandez, a lot of pitchers aren’t back to their old self until 18-24 months after the surgery, but no one doubts his raw stuff. He’s got a lot of pop on his fastball, which he also gets a lot of movement on when he takes a little bit off, and features a nasty slider and an improving sinker.

Brian Anderson and Jose Lima will fill into the 3 and 4 slots, providing little more than innings and, at least in Lima’s case, overwrought antics. To be fair, Lima looked decent at times pitching in Los Angeles at times last season, but there is little hope of him returning to his form of old and one wonders how much of a help the comfortable confines of Chavez Ravine provided Lima’s numbers last season.

The number 5 spot? Jimmy Gobble, Kyle Snyder (he of two Tommy John surgeries), Mike Wood, Denny Bautista, Ryan Jenson and even old friend Dennis Tankersley are in the running. Look for Wood (more spoils from the Carlos Beltran divestiture) to get the spot for now, while Gobble and the others get a spot in the pen or more seasoning in the minors.

The Bullpen

Jeremy Affeldt is back for another go in the closer role; Kansas City has indicated that 2003 strike-zone challenged closer Mike MacDougal will not regain the role, regardless of his health. On paper Affeldt seems the perfect stopper, a mid nineties fastball, a strong off speed pitch and a cocky attitude; but that translated into only 13 saves in 17 opportunities last year, with many of the 13 on the shaky side. But there were health questions last season and the role was a new one for Affeldt, he seems a good bet to grow into the role in 2005 and provide Kansas City with a solid bet to nail down the close ones.

The rest of the pen doesn’t look pretty; a collection of injured veteran relievers on the down side of their careers (Scott Sullivan) or career minor-leaguers that wouldn’t be a consideration for most other major league squads (DJ Carrasco, Shawn Camp, Nate Field). The lone bright spot behind Affeldt seems to be token LOOGY Jaime Cerda, who held lefties to a .185 average last year and, but for a few rough outings at the close of the season, held his ERA below 3.00.

The Skinny

Everything that could have gone wrong seemed to last season, as the hope provided by the team’s performance in 2003 fell away by late May. Under Tony Pena the team never seemed to give up though and the enthusiasm he inspires in the clubs young players will be as important as ever this year. Much like 2004, Kansas City will be playing under the cloud of being forced to trade one of its last remaining veteran stars and all the commentary that accompanies being a small market club. Still, the future has some glimmer of brightness, DeJesus, Harvey, Teahen and Gotay will all be playing regularly in the second half, a good nucleus of young, cheap players for a small market team to build around. Likewise with the pitching staff, Greinke & Hernandez figure to establish themselves as front half of the rotation guys and you have to figure at least one of the Gobble, Snyder, Wood troika will begin to pan out in 2005. That, combined with Affeldt anchoring the bullpen, still will not put Kansas City into contention this year, but will set them up for a run in the AL Central starting in 2006.

Put them down for 72 wins.

Next up: Seattle tries to comeback from a disastrous 2004.

Posted by stan at February 27, 2005 03:42 PM