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February 16, 2005
Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks
Last Year: 5th Place (51-111), 42 GB
Welcome to the Desert: Javier Vazquez, Troy Glaus, Shawn Green, Russ Ortiz, Jose Cruz Jr., Shawn Estes, Craig Counsell
On to Greener Pastures: Randy Johnson, Richie Sexson, Shea Hillenbrand, Casey Fossum
Infield
Gone is Richie Sexson, the D-Backs key acquisition last off-season, who ended up playing only 23 games for his new club before having season-ending surgery to repair cartilage in his left shoulder. The free-swinging (and often missing) Sexson will be replaced by the equally free-swinging (and a bit less often missing) Troy Glaus, who managed a more sporting 58 games before having his season interrupted due to problems with his right shoulder. After the season was over, both signed 4-year deals in the $40M ballpark. If the swap seems like a wash, that’s largely because it is. Glaus is a little younger, a little cheaper and he did get off to a torrid start last year, but he has also missed the better part of his last two seasons now because of a variety of ailments. At the end of the day, both guys will give you the same thing, .260/35/110. It doesn’t matter much which guy the D-Backs go with, they just need one of them in the lineup everyday.
Assuming Glaus’ shoulder is healthy enough to make the throw from 3B, Chad Tracy will be handling the bulk of time at 1B. The D-Backs moved the decidedly average Shea Hillenbrand to Toronto to free up time for Tracy, the thinking being that with regular playing time he could develop into another…well, Shea Hillenbrand. But he’s cheap and they signed old friend Tony Clark as insurance, so look for Tracy to have a nice, quiet adequate year.
In the middle infield, the D-Backs have assembled a mélange of light-hitting utility types that will probably be sharing a lot of the duties. Craig Counsell will probably be back as the regular at 2B, bringing perhaps some karma from the 2001 championship year but little else. Hey, at least it will keep the TV analysts from having to come up with something new to say (“What a gamer this guy is…”). Royce Clayton, Alex Citron (who looked impressive in the Puerto Rican League this winter), Matt Kata and Scott Hairston will all compete for playing time.
The D-Backs don’t have much experience behind the plate, with Koyie Hill and Chris Snyder each taking a shot at the catching duties. The word is the Hill has some pop in his bat, but not much experience in calling a game. They’re learning, Kelly Stinnett was signed to a minor league deal to act as mentor.
Outfield
The D-Backs kept on dealing and, after much, much, much drama, landed Shawn Green to fill there right field spot, with the Dodgers throwing in an extra $10M to help defray his costs. The D-Backs quickly reworked Green’s contract, extending it to 3 years at a bargain rate of about $7.5M/year including LA’s contribution. It’s hard to tell how much Green’s performance has been affected by injuries over the last two years, he’s known for quietly playing through just about everything (save Yom Kippur), or if he has just been losing a step. I tend to lean towards the former, but either way he has averaged 30 HRs over the last three years, which is a decided upgrade from the erstwhile Danny Bautista. And the man has a gold glove to boot.
Speaking of guys losing a step, Luis Gonzalez is working his way back from Tommy John surgery. There are real questions about how well LuGo will be able to make throws from left field, last year pre-surgery efforts weren’t pretty (I remember cringing more than once when watching the late-night west coast games on the baseball package in my apartment back in Boston), but there should be much less effect on his performance in the batter's box. Look for the 37-year old to make a bit of a comeback, but I don’t think he’ll hold up playing everyday, he’ll need some nights off here or there and is only a year or two away from needing to explore a DH role.
Rounding things out in centerfield, the D-Backs brought in the enigmatic Jose Cruz Jr. in a trade for oh-how-the-mighty-have-fallen Casey Fossum. I’ve watched quite a bit of Cruz in the AL East for the better part of the last 7 seasons and, with the exception of a few glimpses around the turn of the century, have never gotten the feeling that Jose cared all that much. No reason to think he will this year, pencil him in for a .250 average, a lot of swings at pitches in the dirt and a morose look on his face.
The Rotation
In the best move of the off-season, Arizona moved its aging ace Randy Johnson to NY in exchange for Javier Vazquez, a few pieces that made the Green deal possible and $9M of George Steinbrenner’s money. Johnson still dominated last year, but a $15M/year 39-year old that needed saline injections in his knees to get out to the mound every fifth day wasn’t what the D-Backs needed to turn things around. And while Vasquez had a horrible second half last year, let’s not forget that he was the gem of the free agent market last off-season. Still only 28, he’s a cinch for 220 IP, can be downright dominating for long stretches of time and has been compared favorably to Pedro Martinez in the mental aspects of pitching; I’m betting the three months were a fluke. The folks in Arizona (not to mention the ones in Boston) should be quite pleased to benefit from the Yankees panic move, and with NY picking up part of the tab, they’ve got him for 3 years of what should be his prime for a shade over $8M/year.
Next up, my favorite pitcher to watch on this squad last year, the sinkerballing Brandon Webb. Stuck playing on the west coast and without a fancy leg kick or other such gimmick, Webb was robbed of the 2003 rookie of the year award by Dontrelle Willis. Both players took a step back in 2004, and with the league learning to layoff some of Webb’s pitches he racked up an alarming WHIP of 1.50. Still, you had to be impressed with his second year despite the 7-16 record, his ERA was still strong at 3.59 (his defense allowed an astounding 28 unearned runs) and he still gave up fewer hits than IPs. With better run-support, better defense and an off-season to adjust, I like Webb as a strong complement to the club ace.
The D-Backs brought two other pitchers in via free agency, the declining Russ Ortiz (a whopping $32M/4 Years) and the perpetually declined Shawn Estes ($2.5M/1 Year). It’s hard to decide which deal is worse, Ortiz, whose ERA, WHIP and HR allowed have moved in the wrong direction for each of the last 4 years or Estes, in whose last solid season I was graduating college. Seriously, Estes might be the worst pitcher to take the mound regularly over the last 5 years, a model for ever young couple to hope they have a left-handed son some day.
In the fifth spot, Oscar Villarreal, Mike Gosling and former Yankee Brad Halsey all will compete. Assuming his arm is OK, look for Villarreal to get the nod, he has a little more seasoning than the others. Plus his name is more fun to say, Oscar Villarreal….Oscar Villarreal…Oscar Villarreal.
The Bullpen
The D-Backs tried to make improvements in a lot of areas this off-season, but the bullpen is still a mess. Greg Aquino will close, and while the converted shortstop showed a lot of poise and control in his cameo in that role last year, there are still a lot of questions as to how long that will keep up. Mike Koplove was a steady if not spectacular presence in the pen last year (76 appearances/4.05 ERA), and is back for another go as is the less steady and certainly not spectacular lefty-specialist Randy Choate (74 appearances/4.62 ERA). After that, there’s Jose Valverde (another fun name to say) and Brandon Lyon, both are decent options that have closed games in the past, but both are back from major arm injuries as well. The losers of the battle for the last spot in the rotation will most likely fill out the pen. It was bad last year and it will be bad this year, these guys will cost Arizona some games.
The Skinny
Well, they’ll certainly be better than last year and are on their way back to respectability. Vazquez and Webb give them something to build around and a healthy Glaus, Green and Gonzalez in the middle of the order is a decent threat. The problem is that after those 5 guys the talent really drops off the table. Tracy could be a nice complementary player; Villarreal could develop into a solid back of the rotation arm, but there are too many holes to plug. I’d have much rather see them take the money they spent on Ortiz and spread it around on three or four solid bullpen arms/role player types.
One last thing, this batting order has some serious strike out potential. Glaus, Cruz Jr., Green & Clayton will all whiff over a 100 times and some others will be in the ballpark. If I lived in Arizona, I’d pick up tickets every game that Jason Schmidt or Ben Sheetsis in town, you could see an 18 or 19 K performance.
Put them down for 78 wins.
Next up: Tony Pena's young bunch in Kansas City.
Posted by stan at February 16, 2005 01:17 PM