No Hat, No Cattle: February 2005 Archives

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February 27, 2005

Kansas City Royals

Kansas City Royals

Last Year: 5th Place (58-104)

Welcome Aboard: Jose Lima, Terrance Long, Eli Marrero
Farewell: Juan Gonzalez, Joe Randa, Benito Santiago, Desi Relaford

Infield

From 1999-2001 Mike Sweeney was arguably one of the toughest outs in baseball, averaging just fewer than 30 HRs & 120 RBI a year, all the while getting on base 4 out of every 10 trips to the plate. That’s when the back problems started and since then Sweeney has missed at least a quarter of each season and been a shell of his former self when in the lineup. 2005 represents a last chance of sorts, as GM Allan Baird will face increasing pressure to move Sweeney and the remaining $33M he is owed over the next 3 year (Texas & Anaheim are already said to have inquired) and Sweeney has already indicated that he is willing to waive his no-trade privileges. For Sweeney’s part, he spent the off-season participating in a training regimen almost exclusively dedicated to strengthening that cranky back and has said that it feels as good as ever. Stay tuned.

If Sweeney does go down, the rotund starting DH Ken Harvey will try to fill his shoes. Harvey has hit .478 in college ball, .380 in A-Ball, .338 in AA, tore it up in AAA Omaha and won an MVP in the Arizona Fall League. His first two years in Kansas City haven’t been that successful, but he has held his own and his numbers improved across the board in his second campaign. There is no reason to expect this to stop, Harvey should be in Tony Pena’s lineup everyday and should make a run at 25 HRs this year. If he does, that will make Baird’s decision regarding Sweeney a little easier and if Sweeney does get moved, open the door for Big Cal Pickering to slide into the DH spot.

Chris Truby is expected to start the season at 3B, but that is expected to last only as long as it takes to get Moneyball prospect Mark Teahen ready for the majors. Teahen was acquired in the deal that send Carlos Beltran to Houston and was compared favorably to Jason Giambi before he developed his power (and presumably got involved in that other stuff). Teahen’s power still isn’t there, but at the very least he should be putting up Sean Burroughs-like respectable numbers for the big league club by the time September rolls around. What happens after that is anyone’s guess.

Same story, different position. Career utility man Tony Graffanino should be playing 2B for Kansas City on opening day, but Ruben Gotay is the long term hope for that spot. The switch-hitting Gotay held his own with the bat as a late season call up last year (though he had a horrible winter), but he looked lost defensively at times is expected to get a bit more time in AAA to polish his game before coming back to Kansas City for good. Still only 22, Gotay is not a speedster, but could develop into a Todd Walker-like 2B in time.

Angel Berroa will be back to give it another go at SS this year. After his rookie of the year performance in 2003, Berroa imploded last spring, spent some time on the DL due to migraine headaches and eventually was demoted back to AA to help figure things out. But, good news, it seems like he did just that and returned to Kansas City looking as good as he ever has. 2005 is anyone’s guess, but clearly the bloom is off rose of Berroa’s ROY campaign. He’s still just 26, but he’ll have to show some improvement this year to be considered a solid long-term option at SS for a club.

Outfield

Life as the heir apparent to Carlos Beltran wasn’t easy for Dave DeJesus, nor must have been having his 1-23 start detailed on the Imus in the Morning Show last April. DeJesus recovered when he returned to the club in June and ended the season with respectable numbers. He’s the only sure thing in the Kansas City outfield this year, he’ll lead off for the Royals and is expected to build on has 2nd half success of last year. Expect his on-base percentage to improve, it was around .400 in his three years in the minors, and his power to continue to develop. It might also be nice if the Royals give the man some instruction on base stealing, his speed only translated into only 8 SBs in 19 attempts last year.

The rest of the outfield is a crap shoot, with Matt Stairs, Terrance Long and Abraham Nunez figuring to share the majority of the corner outfield duties. The Hamster and Long are guys that a lot of teams would like as their fourth outfielders (I’ve been arguing for the Sox to sign Stairs each of the last three off-seasons, they haven’t obliged), but neither has the consistency for an everyday role. Nunez, on the other hand, still has a reputation as a 5-tool type guy. At 28, he isn’t a prospect anymore, but he’s never gotten a chance to play everyday either, this should be it. Eli Marrero and Aaron Guiel figure to step in case of injury.

The Rotation

It seems like every spring people are wondering if Kansas City’s young pitchers will finally make the leap as major leaguers and every fall those same people are lamenting the rash of arm injuries and other problems that didn’t let it happen. Nothing has changed this year and this spring a full 10 pitchers come to camp with hopes of securing a slot in the rotation. Second year starter Zack Greinke is the most promising of those 10 and may get the nod on opening day. Greinke looked dominate at times last season, getting ahead in the count with his mid nineties fastball and working off it with a variety of off speed pitches. Greinke walked only 26 in 145 IP last year, the same command he has shown throughout his minor league career. He got dinged by the long ball a little too often (also 26), be he is an easy bet to continue to develop into a front half of the rotation pitcher.

Next up, Runelvys Hernandez will be making his return from Tommy John surgery that forced him to miss all of the 2004 season. Hernandez was actually the opening day starter in 2003, where he started off very strong until his elbow started acting up. It’s probably too early to ask a lot from Hernandez, a lot of pitchers aren’t back to their old self until 18-24 months after the surgery, but no one doubts his raw stuff. He’s got a lot of pop on his fastball, which he also gets a lot of movement on when he takes a little bit off, and features a nasty slider and an improving sinker.

Brian Anderson and Jose Lima will fill into the 3 and 4 slots, providing little more than innings and, at least in Lima’s case, overwrought antics. To be fair, Lima looked decent at times pitching in Los Angeles at times last season, but there is little hope of him returning to his form of old and one wonders how much of a help the comfortable confines of Chavez Ravine provided Lima’s numbers last season.

The number 5 spot? Jimmy Gobble, Kyle Snyder (he of two Tommy John surgeries), Mike Wood, Denny Bautista, Ryan Jenson and even old friend Dennis Tankersley are in the running. Look for Wood (more spoils from the Carlos Beltran divestiture) to get the spot for now, while Gobble and the others get a spot in the pen or more seasoning in the minors.

The Bullpen

Jeremy Affeldt is back for another go in the closer role; Kansas City has indicated that 2003 strike-zone challenged closer Mike MacDougal will not regain the role, regardless of his health. On paper Affeldt seems the perfect stopper, a mid nineties fastball, a strong off speed pitch and a cocky attitude; but that translated into only 13 saves in 17 opportunities last year, with many of the 13 on the shaky side. But there were health questions last season and the role was a new one for Affeldt, he seems a good bet to grow into the role in 2005 and provide Kansas City with a solid bet to nail down the close ones.

The rest of the pen doesn’t look pretty; a collection of injured veteran relievers on the down side of their careers (Scott Sullivan) or career minor-leaguers that wouldn’t be a consideration for most other major league squads (DJ Carrasco, Shawn Camp, Nate Field). The lone bright spot behind Affeldt seems to be token LOOGY Jaime Cerda, who held lefties to a .185 average last year and, but for a few rough outings at the close of the season, held his ERA below 3.00.

The Skinny

Everything that could have gone wrong seemed to last season, as the hope provided by the team’s performance in 2003 fell away by late May. Under Tony Pena the team never seemed to give up though and the enthusiasm he inspires in the clubs young players will be as important as ever this year. Much like 2004, Kansas City will be playing under the cloud of being forced to trade one of its last remaining veteran stars and all the commentary that accompanies being a small market club. Still, the future has some glimmer of brightness, DeJesus, Harvey, Teahen and Gotay will all be playing regularly in the second half, a good nucleus of young, cheap players for a small market team to build around. Likewise with the pitching staff, Greinke & Hernandez figure to establish themselves as front half of the rotation guys and you have to figure at least one of the Gobble, Snyder, Wood troika will begin to pan out in 2005. That, combined with Affeldt anchoring the bullpen, still will not put Kansas City into contention this year, but will set them up for a run in the AL Central starting in 2006.

Put them down for 72 wins.

Next up: Seattle tries to comeback from a disastrous 2004.

Posted by stan at 03:42 PM

February 26, 2005

Parades

The most recent parade in Houston.

The (second) most recent parade in Boston.

Posted by stan at 02:00 PM | Comments (1)

February 22, 2005

Spring Training Quote of The Day

"That's my personality. I can't change it. If I change it, my father will hit me in the head with the bottle of water."

-Big Papi, on whether success has changed him

Posted by stan at 12:50 PM

February 20, 2005

Gig 'Em Aggies

Let's go Aggies, Beat Starbucks U.!

Texas-A&M-Coffee.jpg

Posted by stan at 07:50 PM

February 19, 2005

The Old Santa Fe

Posted by stan at 07:55 PM

February 17, 2005

Calvert, TX

Calvert is either quaint or rundown, you choose.

Posted by stan at 09:36 AM

February 16, 2005

Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona Diamondbacks
Last Year: 5th Place (51-111), 42 GB

Welcome to the Desert: Javier Vazquez, Troy Glaus, Shawn Green, Russ Ortiz, Jose Cruz Jr., Shawn Estes, Craig Counsell

On to Greener Pastures: Randy Johnson, Richie Sexson, Shea Hillenbrand, Casey Fossum

Infield

Gone is Richie Sexson, the D-Backs key acquisition last off-season, who ended up playing only 23 games for his new club before having season-ending surgery to repair cartilage in his left shoulder. The free-swinging (and often missing) Sexson will be replaced by the equally free-swinging (and a bit less often missing) Troy Glaus, who managed a more sporting 58 games before having his season interrupted due to problems with his right shoulder. After the season was over, both signed 4-year deals in the $40M ballpark. If the swap seems like a wash, that’s largely because it is. Glaus is a little younger, a little cheaper and he did get off to a torrid start last year, but he has also missed the better part of his last two seasons now because of a variety of ailments. At the end of the day, both guys will give you the same thing, .260/35/110. It doesn’t matter much which guy the D-Backs go with, they just need one of them in the lineup everyday.

Assuming Glaus’ shoulder is healthy enough to make the throw from 3B, Chad Tracy will be handling the bulk of time at 1B. The D-Backs moved the decidedly average Shea Hillenbrand to Toronto to free up time for Tracy, the thinking being that with regular playing time he could develop into another…well, Shea Hillenbrand. But he’s cheap and they signed old friend Tony Clark as insurance, so look for Tracy to have a nice, quiet adequate year.

In the middle infield, the D-Backs have assembled a mélange of light-hitting utility types that will probably be sharing a lot of the duties. Craig Counsell will probably be back as the regular at 2B, bringing perhaps some karma from the 2001 championship year but little else. Hey, at least it will keep the TV analysts from having to come up with something new to say (“What a gamer this guy is…”). Royce Clayton, Alex Citron (who looked impressive in the Puerto Rican League this winter), Matt Kata and Scott Hairston will all compete for playing time.

The D-Backs don’t have much experience behind the plate, with Koyie Hill and Chris Snyder each taking a shot at the catching duties. The word is the Hill has some pop in his bat, but not much experience in calling a game. They’re learning, Kelly Stinnett was signed to a minor league deal to act as mentor.

Outfield

The D-Backs kept on dealing and, after much, much, much drama, landed Shawn Green to fill there right field spot, with the Dodgers throwing in an extra $10M to help defray his costs. The D-Backs quickly reworked Green’s contract, extending it to 3 years at a bargain rate of about $7.5M/year including LA’s contribution. It’s hard to tell how much Green’s performance has been affected by injuries over the last two years, he’s known for quietly playing through just about everything (save Yom Kippur), or if he has just been losing a step. I tend to lean towards the former, but either way he has averaged 30 HRs over the last three years, which is a decided upgrade from the erstwhile Danny Bautista. And the man has a gold glove to boot.

Speaking of guys losing a step, Luis Gonzalez is working his way back from Tommy John surgery. There are real questions about how well LuGo will be able to make throws from left field, last year pre-surgery efforts weren’t pretty (I remember cringing more than once when watching the late-night west coast games on the baseball package in my apartment back in Boston), but there should be much less effect on his performance in the batter's box. Look for the 37-year old to make a bit of a comeback, but I don’t think he’ll hold up playing everyday, he’ll need some nights off here or there and is only a year or two away from needing to explore a DH role.

Rounding things out in centerfield, the D-Backs brought in the enigmatic Jose Cruz Jr. in a trade for oh-how-the-mighty-have-fallen Casey Fossum. I’ve watched quite a bit of Cruz in the AL East for the better part of the last 7 seasons and, with the exception of a few glimpses around the turn of the century, have never gotten the feeling that Jose cared all that much. No reason to think he will this year, pencil him in for a .250 average, a lot of swings at pitches in the dirt and a morose look on his face.

The Rotation

In the best move of the off-season, Arizona moved its aging ace Randy Johnson to NY in exchange for Javier Vazquez, a few pieces that made the Green deal possible and $9M of George Steinbrenner’s money. Johnson still dominated last year, but a $15M/year 39-year old that needed saline injections in his knees to get out to the mound every fifth day wasn’t what the D-Backs needed to turn things around. And while Vasquez had a horrible second half last year, let’s not forget that he was the gem of the free agent market last off-season. Still only 28, he’s a cinch for 220 IP, can be downright dominating for long stretches of time and has been compared favorably to Pedro Martinez in the mental aspects of pitching; I’m betting the three months were a fluke. The folks in Arizona (not to mention the ones in Boston) should be quite pleased to benefit from the Yankees panic move, and with NY picking up part of the tab, they’ve got him for 3 years of what should be his prime for a shade over $8M/year.

Next up, my favorite pitcher to watch on this squad last year, the sinkerballing Brandon Webb. Stuck playing on the west coast and without a fancy leg kick or other such gimmick, Webb was robbed of the 2003 rookie of the year award by Dontrelle Willis. Both players took a step back in 2004, and with the league learning to layoff some of Webb’s pitches he racked up an alarming WHIP of 1.50. Still, you had to be impressed with his second year despite the 7-16 record, his ERA was still strong at 3.59 (his defense allowed an astounding 28 unearned runs) and he still gave up fewer hits than IPs. With better run-support, better defense and an off-season to adjust, I like Webb as a strong complement to the club ace.

The D-Backs brought two other pitchers in via free agency, the declining Russ Ortiz (a whopping $32M/4 Years) and the perpetually declined Shawn Estes ($2.5M/1 Year). It’s hard to decide which deal is worse, Ortiz, whose ERA, WHIP and HR allowed have moved in the wrong direction for each of the last 4 years or Estes, in whose last solid season I was graduating college. Seriously, Estes might be the worst pitcher to take the mound regularly over the last 5 years, a model for ever young couple to hope they have a left-handed son some day.

In the fifth spot, Oscar Villarreal, Mike Gosling and former Yankee Brad Halsey all will compete. Assuming his arm is OK, look for Villarreal to get the nod, he has a little more seasoning than the others. Plus his name is more fun to say, Oscar Villarreal….Oscar Villarreal…Oscar Villarreal.

The Bullpen

The D-Backs tried to make improvements in a lot of areas this off-season, but the bullpen is still a mess. Greg Aquino will close, and while the converted shortstop showed a lot of poise and control in his cameo in that role last year, there are still a lot of questions as to how long that will keep up. Mike Koplove was a steady if not spectacular presence in the pen last year (76 appearances/4.05 ERA), and is back for another go as is the less steady and certainly not spectacular lefty-specialist Randy Choate (74 appearances/4.62 ERA). After that, there’s Jose Valverde (another fun name to say) and Brandon Lyon, both are decent options that have closed games in the past, but both are back from major arm injuries as well. The losers of the battle for the last spot in the rotation will most likely fill out the pen. It was bad last year and it will be bad this year, these guys will cost Arizona some games.

The Skinny

Well, they’ll certainly be better than last year and are on their way back to respectability. Vazquez and Webb give them something to build around and a healthy Glaus, Green and Gonzalez in the middle of the order is a decent threat. The problem is that after those 5 guys the talent really drops off the table. Tracy could be a nice complementary player; Villarreal could develop into a solid back of the rotation arm, but there are too many holes to plug. I’d have much rather see them take the money they spent on Ortiz and spread it around on three or four solid bullpen arms/role player types.

One last thing, this batting order has some serious strike out potential. Glaus, Cruz Jr., Green & Clayton will all whiff over a 100 times and some others will be in the ballpark. If I lived in Arizona, I’d pick up tickets every game that Jason Schmidt or Ben Sheetsis in town, you could see an 18 or 19 K performance.

Put them down for 78 wins.

Next up: Tony Pena's young bunch in Kansas City.

Posted by stan at 01:17 PM

February 15, 2005

Pitchers and Catchers

Yes indeed, there is a extra little hop in the nohatnocattle step today. Tune in tomorrow as we begin our first of 30 capsules covering each major league team from the good to the bad to the evil.

Posted by stan at 11:05 AM

February 14, 2005

Waco

On the same list: "Maybe we should check out Waco on our drive home."

For the record, no Branch Davidians were spotted, in fact pretty much no one at all was spotted. Not a lot going on in Waco on a Sunday afternoon.

Posted by stan at 09:31 AM

Dallas

Right near the top of my list of phrases I never expected to say: "So, maybe we should take a trip up to Dallas for Valentine's weekend."

Posted by stan at 08:27 AM | Comments (1)

February 10, 2005

I...Love...Dunkin' Donuts....Coffee......

Tasty!

Posted by stan at 10:22 PM

Cougar Gang Signs

From the UH web site:

Cougar Hand Sign
In Texas, all of the major universities have adopted a hand sign which signifies to all other Texans where your loyalties lie. The Cougar Hand Sign is no different. Although the original hand sign was the "V" for Victory until 1965, events conspired and a new hand sign was adopted. The inaugural football game between University of Houston and University of Texas during the 1953 campaign witnessed the birth of a blood rivalry between the state's two largest universities at that time. However, it also led to the adoption of another Cougar Hand Sign. During her transport from Houston to Austin, one of the fingers on Shasta's paw was severed when the cage door was closed. As the University of Texas partisans and players caught wind of the accident, they mimicked the animal by bending their thumb over the ring finger against their palm. This gesture implied that the Cougars were invalids. The Cougars would go on to lose the game 28-7.

The cougar faithful, still mindful of the stinging defeat suffered 15 years earlier, never forgot the taunting that they received. The next time the two teams faced off (1968… a whole 15 years later), UH tied UT 20-20. At that point, the students thought there might be a bit of magic in that sign, and the hand sign was adopted replacing the "V".

In 1976, the Cougars first football season in the Southwest Conference, the Coogs & Horns met for the third time ever. The Coogs put a beating on the Longhorns that they have yet to forget 30-0 (a.k.a.the "Dad's Day Massacre") in front of the largest crowd to assemble in Memorial Stadium at that time. That victory ended the Longhorns famed winning streak, and the embarrassment also signaled the end of legendary UT Coach Darryl K. Royal's career. After that victory, the Cougar Hand Sign became firmly entrenched.

*Important Note: Only one hand is to be held aloft when making the Cougar Hand Sign.

Because if you held up two hands, then this would become silly.

Posted by stan at 02:30 PM

Can't Get Enough Of This Grilling

Posted by stan at 02:27 PM

February 09, 2005

Good Old Boddingtons

I've always enjoyed a nice cold, creamy Boddingtons Pub Ale on tap, but it is just as good out of the nitro can and has become a staple in the nohatnocattle refrigerator over the last few years. It has taken a bit of a backseat lately during the current Era of Cheap Mexican Beer, but I think it has an inside track on being selected as one of the wedding reception beers in May.

Any suggestions on other beers we should serve?

Posted by stan at 04:04 PM | Comments (3)

MBAs for Dummies

Hi, I took a 50 question true/false & multiple choice exam in one of my graduate courses last night. It's not that I'm particularly looking to be challenged or anything, but how lazy does a professor have to be to be to waste people's time with crap like that?

Here's a good rule of thumb: if I take the exam and still get stuck in rush hour traffic on THE WAY HOME, you need to put a little more effort into preparing these things. What a racket this higher education thing is.

Posted by stan at 03:33 PM

February 08, 2005

More Parades?

This is kind of a little sad, it's the first Boston Championship Parade I've missed since the '86 Celtics. I had a good excuse for that one, being on 11 and all. This time it's my own damn fault.

On the bright side, it looks awful cold there.

Posted by stan at 01:16 PM | Comments (1)

February 06, 2005

Holy Cow!

Can you believe that the Sox were down 3-0 to the Yankees and came back to win? And then they won the World Series to boot?

Oh yeah, way to go Pats.

Posted by stan at 10:19 PM

February 04, 2005

Fired Up Guy

I'm not sure if I've mentioned it before, but there is a guy a cube over from me that loves the phrase "I'm fired up." "I'm fired up for that meeting," or "I'm fired up for lunch," or "I'm fired up for the Super Bowl," etc. Anyway, I overheard him leaving a long, detailed voicemail for someone today, about a very serious topic, I don't know the specifics, but it was someone that felt betrayed about something, either a business deal that the company was working on or possibly an applicant for a job with the company. Anyway, he was very serious, and very business like about it. So how did he end the voicemail? "If you would like to talk about this more, I'll be leaving the office today at 2:30 because I'm going to the circus, so give me a call on Monday."

Posted by stan at 06:39 PM

UH Sunsets

Posted by stan at 02:11 PM

The Least Hip Brothers (and Sisters) on Campus?

I took this picture right after I had walked by the UH Drop-In Expression Zone, I was in a bit of a nervous politically correct college campus mode and took it very quickly (thus the blurriness) after making sure no one was looking about 12 or 13 times, as for all I know it is grounds for expulsion by some we-must-not-acknowedge-race-unless-we-are-expounding-on-the-affirming-value-of-diversity code of ethics. Though I have to give UH some credit, this is the first (of three now) college I've been to that has a serious minority population, so at least they are walking the walk...